Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 222110
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
410 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm remains on track to impact the region Sunday through
  Tuesday.

- Heavy snow & major travel impacts look likely area-wide
  Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Snow amounts of 8-12”
  are possible with this first phase of the system. Melting &
  compaction may keep measurable amounts less than these
  forecast amounts.

- On Monday, snow likely transitions over to rain, and then a
  dry slot, from southern Minnesota through the Twin Cities &
  western Wisconsin. This will limit storm-total snowfall
  amounts across these areas, and melt a good deal of the snow
  that fell Sunday.

- Heavy snow continues Monday through Monday night for western
  & north-central Minnesota. Additional amounts of 6-10” are
  likely where the snow does not change over to rain.

- Light snow lingers over the area Tuesday into Wednesday
  morning. Gusty northwest winds could lead to travel impacts
  from drifting snow across western Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

TONIGHT & SATURDAY...Skies continue to clear out across eastern
Minnesota & western Wisconsin, with quiet & colder weather
continuing over the next 24 hours. As the surface low
responsible for our upcoming winter storm begins to deepen east
of the Rockies, a band of light snow is expected to develop as
early as Saturday afternoon across southwest MN as forcing from
warm-air advection increases well-ahead of the advancing low.
This band of snow will move northwards Saturday night, but
there will be plenty of dry air near the surface to overcome, so
we’re not expecting much in the way of accumulation with this
band of snow Saturday night. Most of the area could perhaps see
as much as 1”of snow by Sunday morning.

SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING...The first round of impactful winter
weather with this system is expected Sunday into Monday morning,
as increasing warm-advection & low-level frontogenesis leads to
a widespread region of heavy sow developing ahead of the
advancing surface low.Snowfall rates in excess of 1” an hour are
likely at times Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, which
coupled with winds gusting up to 30 mph will lead to very low
visibility during the falling snow. Billowing snow will probably
not be too much of an issue given the lack of a snowpack &
relatively heavy expected nature of the snow, but some drifting
is possible over open areas of southern and western Minnesota.
Confidence is high for the entire area seeing at least a few
hours of heavy snow, with snowfall amounts generally increasing
as one goes north across Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Rain
could begin mixing in as early as Sunday afternoon across
southern Minnesota, which will keep amounts as low as 3-6”
across these areas Sunday through Monday morning. Meanwhile,
snow will be falling for this whole period beginning Sunday
afternoon from western Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin
where amounts will be maximized. Snowfall amounts of 8-12” look
most likely by Sunday morning across these areas, although we
will have to closely monitor how far north the rain-snow line
extends later in the day on Sunday.

MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...Confidence in the forecast begins to
decrease Monday, as a warm front northeast of the low causes a
changeover from rain to snow, and the dry slot of the system
leads to a lull of several hours for portions of Minnesota &
Wisconsin. Confidence is high that we will see this changeover
to rain & dry slot develop, but guidance still varies on how far
north and west it extends into Minnesota. For now, little in
the way of winter impacts is expected Monday for far-southern
Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin. Confidence is medium to high
that it will extend north into the Twin Cities metro, and
potentially as far north as the St. Cloud area into northwest
Wisconsin. The rain and above-freezing temperatures Monday will
help to melt & compact a good deal of the snow that fell Sunday,
which is why we are stressing caution when looking at some of
the “storm-total snowfall” maps out there from this event (these
do not account for melting compaction). It will be slushy &
messy out on Monday across these areas where the snow begins to
melt, but travel conditions should improve greatly with the
warmer temperatures during the day. Meanwhile, to the north and
west of this warm front, heavy snow will likely continue into
Monday night as a second band of deformation-driven snow begins
to develop somewhere over the Dakotas & western/northern
Minnesota. Snowfall amounts of 6-10” (in addition to what fell
on Sunday) look possible within this band of snow, which will
keep major travel impacts going through Monday night into
Tuesday morning across these areas.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNING...Light snow in the wrap-around
region of the low will linger over the region into the Wednesday
morning, leading to a long duration of additional light
snowfall accumulations (1-3” over 24 hours). The impacts from
this phase of the system will come from the gusty northwest
winds that develop as cold-air advection increases behind a cold
front. Areas that saw rain & above-freezing temperatures Monday
should not see much in the way of blowing/drifting snow
potential, but there is a strong concern across the portions of
western Minnesota that saw heavy snow Sunday & Monday. For now,
winds look to stay below blizzard criteria, but gusty winds and
potentially a foot or more of fresh snow on the ground will lead
to very difficult travel across open areas Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

REST OF THE WEEK...Seasonably cool conditions continue through
the end of the week under persistent northwest flow aloft.
Conditions look dry Wednesday-Friday, but another organized
system (and potential for winter weather) is looking possible by
the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Scattered clouds around 2-3k ft will stick around for a few
hours across portions of south-central Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Scattered cumulus will continue to build in from the
north around 4-5k ft that will clear out this evening, leading
to relatively clear skies through tomorrow afternoon. Winds will
be out of the N/NW around 5-10 mph, shifting more easterly and
becoming light tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Chances for snow start to increase tomorrow night, so we
have kept mention out of the TAF for now. No additional
concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...IFR/LIFR +SN likely. Wind E 25G30-40kts
MON...IFR Likely. Chance LIFR/+SN early. RA/SN mix likely
afternoon-evening. Wind ENE 15G25-30kts.
TUE...IFR/MVFR likely. Chance RA/SN mix thru afternoon. Wind NW
15G25-30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning
     for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui
     Parle-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Redwood-Renville-
     Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-
     Isanti-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-
     Sherburne-Sibley-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for Barron-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED


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