Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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053
FXUS63 KMPX 281027
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
RAINS EXITS ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS
MORNING.

WE HAD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCED
GRAUPEL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH.  STILL A SIGN OF EARLY SPRING IN MN.
THE NAM INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF BELOW ZERO LI`S MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS AN AREA OF 7-
7.5 C/KM OVER SOUTHERN MN EARLIER.  THAT AREA HAS SHRUNK AND APPEARS
TO BE DISSIPATING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW TREK OVER IOWA.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND TO CONTINUE SO IT APPEARS AND THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WE STILL MAINTAIN A GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF RAIN
LIFT NW ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS...AT LEAS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY TAPER THEM THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. THEY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TO THE FAR EAST.

MODELS ALONG WITH LAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA VULNERABLE TO SOME WET SNOW THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST 1KM WET MAX
BULB TEMPERATURE IS AROUND ZERO THERE...AND THE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WAVES OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH.  A FEW
STATIONS HAVE REPORTED SNOW DURING THE LAST HOUR(LITTLE FALLS AND
LONG PRAIRIE) WITH A FEW UP REPORTS EARLIER.  WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH FOR THE EARLY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLOW CLEARING FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE CWA TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS...EAST
WIND AND PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO
SUPPRESS THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BULK OF MODELS DEPICTING THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR AS THE NORTHERN BOUND OF RAINFALL. THE GFS IS EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...AND CONFINES THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CLOSER
TO THE MN/IA BORDER. HAVE MAINTAINED 70-80 POPS ALONG THE IOWA
BORDER...TAPERING QUICKLY DOWN TO 20-30S FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO
MINNEAPOLIS TO EAU CLAIRE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
WE MAY EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DURING
THE EARLY MORNING TIME FRAMES OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANYTHING MORE THAN
ANYTHING VERY PATCHY IN NATURE.

FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK EXPECT TO SEE A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN
THE 60S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BASE OF A WEAK TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN MN AND WI ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING
NOTABLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER IOWA.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR AS FAR NORTH AS KMSP THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR CIGS AT KRWF THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
AT KEAU/KRNH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY. EXPECT CIGS
TO LIFT TO VFR BY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. E WINDS OVER THE AREA
A BIT GUSTY OVER SOUTHERN SITES AND THEN BECOMING MORE E-NE INTO
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS WAVES
OF RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THEN DRYING OUT BY THIS
EVENING AND REMAINING VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NITE...VFR. WIND E-NE AT 05KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE



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