Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 171823
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
123 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING EAST NEAR LA
CROSSE, WI. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN TODAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN BLUSTERY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALLOWS THEM TO SUBSIDE SOME. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TOUGH PART OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD INCLUDES PREDICTING THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK
TODAY...AND THE MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY CONSIDERING ALL THE FRESH
SNOW COVER AND THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...WHILE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MN REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM MOST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SNOW PACK...BUT
DIDN`T GO TOO CRAZY WITH THAT BECAUSE IT IS MID APRIL AND DEEP
MIXING CAN STILL OCCUR IN THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS BECOME CALM THIS
EVENING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MN MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MN. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THE MOST
RECENT NAM NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...BUT THEY COULD BE REMOVED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE EXTENSIVE IN STRONG WAA ENVIRONMENT...AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...WILL
BRING A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT SOME 50S NEAR
THE IOWA BORDER DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT CAN LIFT DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN PLAINS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH MUCH OF
THE ENERGY BEING DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH. NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED
ABOUT SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE BEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. IF SOME SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH...HIGHS WILL REACH THE
60S WHICH COULD TAP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL LINGER NEAR THIS FRONT ACROSS SERN MN AND WRN WI. THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IN MUCH
OF MN WILL BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S OR LOW 70S.

THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES MONDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE +14
TO +16C RANGE. MIXING TO 850 MB WILL TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS
THERMAL RIDGING AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK...THE WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT AND WINDS WILL BACK
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL MARK A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPS
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY MIDWEEK...PARTICULARLY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL TRY TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE BY
THURSDAY PENDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...WHICH BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN CONCERN WITH TAFS IS DEPARTURE OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO WEAK OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. 12Z TAFS HAD THINGS TIMED
PRETTY GOOD. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE CLEARING BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AT WI TERMINALS...BASICALLY KEEPING THINGS IN LINE
WITH THE GFSLAMP...WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING WELL. AFTER THAT...
ATTENTION TURNS TO END OF TAF AS WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL SEE A HEALTHY BURST OF CLOUDS BETWEEN
6K AND 10K FT...BUT DRY AIR BELOW THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP
POTENTIAL. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE SREF WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS
COMING OUT OF NRN SODAK INTO WRN MN FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO HIGH ENOUGH TO ONLY GO WITH A VCSH AT
THIS POINT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE TIGHTENING UP QUICKLY
OUT IN WRN MN BY 18Z FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED BY 18Z OUT AT AXN/RWF.

KMSP...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CLEAR MSP BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. IF
ANYTHING...WILL BE CLOSER T0 19Z. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN REST OF TAF
AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INHIBIT ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND
WITH WAA LATE FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF...WINDS WILL START KICKING UP AS WELL..WITH SE GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 24 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...CHC MVFR WITH -SHRA/ISO TS. WINDS SE BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG






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