Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 272353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BE TAPER DIURNALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP MOST AREAS DURING THE NIGHT AS
WELL. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FIRST AND SHOWERS WERE MORE
NUMEROUS. WILL CONTINUE THE PATCHY FOG MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COUPLE OF ISSUES INTO MONDAY.  SOME CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL. THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP QPF INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT BUILDS CAPE OVER 800 J/KG AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF DOESNT DEVELOP THE INSTABILITY OR THE
WEAK WAVE AROUND THE LOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT MODEL RUN AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR INTENSIFIES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT THEMES FOR
THE WX OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY THRU THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS...THE CENTRAL CONUS...ESP IN THE NORTH...WILL BE
SUBJECT TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK ALONG WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ANY CHANCES...MAINLY
TUE THEN THU INTO FRI...WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROUGH RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY LACKING SO ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES COME WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM KRST THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO
KAXN. THE SITES STILL IN LINE FOR A SHOWER THREAT THROUGH 02Z ARE
KRWF AND KAXN. GUSTY NW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND NNE BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTRACTION OF THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE
REMAINS SOME CONCERN (LOW CONFIDENCE) ON PATCHY MVFR CIGS OVER NW
WI AND NORTHERN MN WORKING INTO KAXN...KSTC AND KRNH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...CLR TO SCT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR BR
FORECAST FOR KEAU OFF THE RIVER RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR SCT ON
MONDAY WITH NW WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.

KMSP...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AIRFIELD AT
THE START OF THE TAF...OTHERWISE DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. N WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NW
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N5 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




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