Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 272024
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THERE HAS BEEN A PROFOUND LACK OF CU TODAY DESPITE REACHING THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR...SOME HAVE BEGUN
FORMING OVER MORRISON COUNTY...WITH THE MORE DEVELOPED CU ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHWEST WI AND OVER THE DAKOTAS. A FEW STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE DULUTH AREA...BUT COVERAGE IS FAR LESS THAN HI-RES
MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING. THE SMALL CLUSTER OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE HAYWARD AND LADYSMITH
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
FAR WEST AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN CASE A STORM DEVELOPS FROM THE
CU WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS...BUT IF THIS DOESN/T TAKE PLACE WITHIN
AN HOUR OR SO WE PROBABLY COULD REMOVE POPS OVER MN. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DRIFTS EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND GUST TO 20-30 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
MAY RESULT IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WRN MN TOWARD
EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THERE. MOISTURE WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME REACHING ERN
MN AND WRN WI...SO IT IS PROBABLE ALL OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUILDING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE THE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LESSENS INTO THURSDAY EVENING TO THE WEST.
MODELS SHOW DECENT MUCAPE INTO THE EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS LIMITED GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KTS. THIS WILL LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE
EVENING...AND OVERALL INTENSITY TREND MAY DECREASE AS IT MOVES
FARTHER EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE GFS LIFTS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREADS THAT INTO EASTERN MN BY
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POP SCENARIO DEVELOPING THROUGH 06Z
FRI. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MN.
SHOULD SEE DECENT RAINFALL RATES WITH ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST
WITH UPPER FLOW RATHER WEAK. SOME 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE AGAIN IF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY DOES MATERIALIZE.
THE FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN MN BY 18Z FRI...WITH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THIS
SOME...BUT HIGH POP SCENARIO DOES LOOK GOOD FARTHER EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. WILL TREND
POPS TO SLIGHT TO THE FAR EAST AFTER 06Z SAT.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND.
DOES LOOK LIKE A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH READINGS APPROACHING 80 DEGREE ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE ON OVERALL MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN THREAT
INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL HOLD ANY SMALL POPS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE CWA AS WARMER AIR RETURNS. THE REAL RAIN THREAT COULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES
WITH 50H HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 580 DECAMETERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

STILL SKC AROSS MOST OF MN AND WESTERN WI...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE HIGH BASED CU DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE ARE
CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELITE TRENDS AND THE TOTAL LACK
OF CU DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING LEFT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT...AND IF ANY WERE TO OCCUR THEY WOULD
BE ISOLATED...LEFT SHRA OR TSRA OUT OF ALL THE TAFS FOR NOW.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP AROUND 8KFT BY 20-21Z. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER
TO THURSDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG
NNW AT 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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