Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 220353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE HOPWRF...OUR MPXWRF AND THE LATEST RUC ALL SHOW SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BY 09Z WITH
THE ACTIVITY WORKING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES BY NOON. EVEN THE
SREF HAS SOME CHANCE PROBABILITIES DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. THE
ACTIVITY IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND NOSE
OF A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THEREFORE...ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL MN FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOGETHER WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
WESTERN MN...BUT LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
WESTERN WI.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ID/MT BORDER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
BRING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PRECIP IS NOW
FALLING INTO THE TIME FRAME OF THE HIRES MODELS...SO TRIED TO NARROW
UP THE POP WINDOW...BUT INCREASED THE PERCENTAGES AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 0.20
INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THURSDAY WX AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS IN EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND HOW IT INFLUENCES/SLOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
STORM SYSTEM.

OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HOLDING NEAR OR SOUTH OF
BOSTON/MASS. THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS SLIGHTLY
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LEADING TO A SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM MAY SLOW DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT
WX/POP GRIDS REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MAY BE
SLOWED MORE IF CONDS WARRANT.

PAST THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
CORRELATION OF ABNORMALLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ABV 50H IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PAST THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANOTHER 70 DEGREE HIGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...THIS
ABV NORMAL ANOMALY OF THE 20/50H WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY
NOVEMBER. LATEST 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BY EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPS FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AVERAGE AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK AND
PROGRESS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MN DURING THE MORNING.
VCSH REMAINS IN THE KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC TAFS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE FOR KAXN AND KRWF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS THE BAND OF THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH
INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AND PASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH 15G22KTS COMMON. SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE EASTERN SITES. BREEZY SE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH






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