Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 262346 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
646 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE AND SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS DRY AIR ADVANCES SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN BY TONIGHT.  BY TOMORROW MORNING...850MB TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM ABOUT -10C IN WESTERN MN TO -16C IN WESTERN WI. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD
TONIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN SOME SPOTS THROUGH THE
AREA THAT THE HEAVIES SNOW FELL EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

TOMORROW WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE BUT WITH THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS
IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT THE VERY END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A WAA BAND OF LIFT MAY
BEGIN PUSHING LIGHT PRECIP INTO EXTRA WESTERN MN.  FURTHER
EAST...LIMITED LIFT AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS TO CONTINUE INCREASING CHC/S
OF PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN
DILEMMA IS THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS/EC/GEM SHRTWV
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION FIELD. THIS
WEEKEND SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WHICH
MEANS THAT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS NOT COMPLETE IN THE CURRENT MODEL
DATA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE TWO MORE RUNS...OR AT LEAST ONCE IT COMES
ONSHORE BEFORE WE HAVE A MUCH BETTER PICTURE IN TERMS OF HOW
WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES. ALTHOUGH THIS SHRTWV IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE VIA WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN...AM STILL HESITANT TO
GO CATEGORICAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHC/S. IF THIS FEATURE HAS MORE
ENERGY THEN CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST...THE SFC LOW MAYBE STRONGER
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A BETTER ORGANIZATION OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS. THE
WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY IMPRESSIVE AND CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS SUNDAY
/GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH/ ACROSS WESTERN MN. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SCENARIO AND HIGHLIGHT WINDS IN THE HWO. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE
A HIGH WIND WATCH SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...IF LESS MOISTURE DEVELOPS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING...AN INCREASE
IN FIRE WX CONCERNS IS LIKELY IN SW MN FOR SUNDAY AFTN.

WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 50H GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR GUIDANCE PAST
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. BY
MIDWEEK. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS MUCH HIGHER COMPARED TO THIS
WEEKEND SYSTEM...AND MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE OUR FIRST
CONVECTION ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER WED AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NO OTHER CHGS ARE FORECAST PAST WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH GFS/EC
INDICATING THE MEAN UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NW...LEADING
TO COOLER AIR FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BANK OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTH AND
WILL CLEAR ALL THE TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TO FOLLOW INTO FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MN. NORTH WINDS WILL
EASE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTH FRIDAY.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC -RA/-SN LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. PRECIP DEPARTING EAST IN THE MORNING...SKIES CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TURNING NW 20-25G35KTS.
MON...MVFR PSBL...WINDS WEST 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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