Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 162347
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
647 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A narrow band of sprinkles has just formed from St Cloud to the
Twin Cities and Faribault and is headed east. Another band will
develop to the west of this initial, weak band which will expand
in intensity and areal coverage late tonight over Wisconsin. Low
level moisture is increasing, but will remain meager for much
meaningful precipitation. It will even take a while to develop
lower level clouds. As this band heads east, it will encounter
drier and cooler air and may be mainly snow until warmer air aloft
moves in later this evening. At that point precip may turn to
rain or freezing rain, depending on the thermal profile. Due to
the light amounts and the possibility of precip becoming plain
rain, decided against an advisory for now but travel problems
could result if it is predominately freezing rain.

The front will swing through late tonight with gusty west winds
developing for Friday. Decent low level lapse rates should allow
for gusts of 30-35 kt by afternoon. Believe models are overdone on
low level moisture, particularly given the mixing, so will
continue with a partly cloudy forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

The longer term concerns remain the warm up for the weekend
followed by the temperature moderation through midweek and
potential of a significant storm system affecting the central and
northern plains by later next week.

Initially we have colder air filtering in behind the departing
cold front into Friday night on gusty northwest winds. This should
provide for somewhat cooler readings into Saturday...close to
normal. Then the next trough moves east across the Dakotas and
into Minnesota later Sunday and Sunday night...providing
increasing southeast/south winds and much warmer air. With most
deterministic models showing H85 temepratures from +8 to +12c
across the CWA Sunday afternoon as the surface front moves in.
This should yield/mix out to at least 50s for much of the
area...especially if the snow cover over the southern CWA is
negligible/gone by then. We may see lower 60s to the southwest.

This system moves through with only minor cooling behind...and a
small chance of showers/light mix Sunday night. Cooler
temperatures are expected into midweek out ahead of the next
significant western CONUS trough which moves ashore around
midweek. This will provide rising heights and overall warming
trend by the end of the week. The deterministic models lift a
closed circulation northeast affecting the region later Wednesday
and Thursday. At present...cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over
western Kansas by early Thursday...eventually lifting northeast
toward the Great Lakes with the upper low. It is too early too say
for certain what the eventual track will be...but models suggest
we will start out warm enough for rain/showers for most of the
event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Initial band of precip materialized over the Twin Cities around
21z is now a healthy band moving across WI, so introduced
prevailing precip groups for RNH/EAU. There is a secondary band
forming over the Twin Cities as main upper forcing moves in based
on IR/WV satellite imagery. This will keep precip going much of
the night for EAU. Short term models are keeping RNH/EAU warm
enough where it looks like a mainly rain scenario for both
locations. NAM/GFS in particular are once again way over done on
low level moisture and their resultant cloud potential, so
continued to stay close to timing of previous TAF, with delayed
arrival timing based on the HRRR. Have high confidence MVFR cigs
are coming to WI, but the HRRR shows these clouds remaining east
of MSP, so it`s not unreasonable that our MN terminals remain VFR
until we go post frontal and clouds currently up in southern
Alb/Sask make a run for central MN in the morning. Frontal timing
looks similar to what the previous TAF had, with deep mixing
resulting in gusty WNW winds by Friday afternoon.

KMSP...Low confidence on if MSP will even see low clouds before
the FROPA, with both the HRRR and RAP keeping pre-frontal MVFR
cigs to the east. We may continue to see some sprinkles for the
first couple of hours of the TAF, but precip tonight, like the
MVFR cigs, looks to be confined to WI. We`ll have to watch how far
south the post frontal MVFR makes it, but the HRRR indicates we
may be seeing them by late Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kt.
Sun...Chc MVFR in afternoon. Wind S at 15g25kt.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG



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