Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 212027
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
327 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

The next 36 hours will be dry with mostly clear skies and light
winds. Temperatures will cool off tonight into the 30s across
Minnesota and upper 20s across Wisconsin, so expect another night of
frost across much of the region. On Saturday highs will rebound into
the upper 60s with a light southwesterly wind.

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery together with surface obs
and and RAP13 analysis identified 1024 surface high across the Red
River Valley. Over the next 36 hours this high will slowly meander
southeast. This means little change in the weather over the next day
and a half other than a few less clouds, and light northerly winds
becoming southwest. There is zero chance for precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

An approaching cold front from the north will stall somewhere
across central Minnesota into northern/central Wisconsin Sunday.
This will set up a rather impressive temperature gradient across
the area. Clouds and east flow north of the boundary will keep
highs in the 40s, while with more sun and gusty south winds should
bring temperatures into the mid 60s to lower 70s south. GFS and
GEM are further north than the NAM/ECMWF so the boundary is still
a bit too diffuse in the official grids and further adjustments
will be needed.

Low pressure will track from Wyoming through central Mn to Lake
Superior by Monday night. This will lift the front back north
Sunday night with mild and breezy conditions expected area wide
Monday. Much of the forcing and deeper moisture will be north of
the low, with only a few showers pushing across with the cold
front here so chance PoPs continue.

Cool high pressure will then build into the Great Lakes for much
of the middle of next week. Tuesday night and Wednesday night
could feature subfreezing temps across much of the region.
Frost/freeze headlines may be necessary depending on the degree of
green up that has taken place.

Attention then turns to a couple large systems late next week into
the following weekend. GFS seems to be the odd man out taking the low
north across MN when looking at other models and its ensemble
members. The other solutions tend to take it further south across
Iowa, Illinois, and southeastern Wisconsin with much colder temps
and even a wintry mix potentially. Current forecast temperatures
would be 10-15 degrees too warm in that case.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

VFR conditions throughout. High pressure will bring light wind and
mostly clear skies. Winds should become light and variable
overnight as the surface high moves overhead, and then take up a
southwesterly direction on Saturday with speeds around 05 kts.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Wind direction is quite variable, but
overall should have a north/northeasterly component. Winds on
Saturday will be light and variable as well, but at this point the
most likely direction is southwest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind NE/E at 05kts.
Mon...VFR and windy with -shra possible late. Wind SSE at
15G25kt.
Tue...MVFR. Wind NW at 15G20kt.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB


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