Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 262225

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
525 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation Discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Low level moisture continued to linger in the form of low stratus
this afternoon, but the precipitation has slowly tapered off
across the region and just have a slight chance of rain persisting
across western Wisconsin overnight.

Temperatures will vary little once again, with overnight lows in
the mid 30s at most locations. Forecast soundings for Monday are
looking a bit drier than previously, so should partly to mostly
sunny skies across western MN by late afternoon. Clouds will
linger across eastern MN and western Wisconsin. Afternoon highs
reflect the sunshine, so increased them across western MN and
cooled them off slightly in western WI in comparison to the
blended forecast guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The long term will generally be trending milder through next
weekend, but the split flow and slow moving systems will still be
traversing areas to the south through at least the next week.

High pressure over central Canada will keep an easterly flow in
place for Tuesday and early Wednesday. Despite this, a return of
the sun and somewhat warm temps aloft should allow us to climb
into the mid/upper 50s Tuesday. Cooler air from the east will push
in and with an increase of mid and high level cloudiness from the
approaching system to the southwest, which will knock temps down
several degrees Wednesday. The ECMWF has trended south toward the
GFS and the GEFS with the late week system, but still does bring
some rain into southern Minnesota and central/southern Wisconsin.
NAM/GFS are slightly further south, so expecting a likely dry week
ahead for much of the area. PoPs were reduced across the central
and northern CWA for late week.

Yet another upper low will dive into the central and southern
Rockies for late week and eject onto the Southern Plains next
weekend. Like the system preceding it, the ECMWF wants to bring
it further north as a well developed cyclone whereas the GFS is
flatter, further south, and cutoff. A stronger northerly flow and
cooler temperatures result on the EC, whereas the GFS brings very
little influence this far north, depicts a weak pressure gradient,
sunshine, and much warmer temperatures. In fact, temperatures
climb into the 65-70 degree range by early next week. GEFS plumes
also show the warming trend nicely into the first few days of
April. As is typical at this range, played it down the middle but
the GFS has been performing well over the last week or two.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

MVFR ceilings will prevail into Monday morning, with degradation
to IFR at eastern sites (KMSP-KRNH-KEAU) tonight as well. Went a
tad more optimistic with scattering/improvement trends on Monday,
thinking we will see improvement to VFR at MN sites between 15z
and 18z, and WI sites between 20z and 23z. Visibilities overnight
in the 3sm-5sm range are possible as areas of fog develop.
Regarding precip chances, KRNH and KEAU may have some showers in
the vicinity this eve. Winds will be light north/northeast through
the period.

Confidence is rather high regarding low-end MVFR ceilings through
Monday morning, with a period of IFR between 08z and 14z. We could
see a few sprinkles this evening, otherwise improving trends are
expected on Monday with improvement to VFR now looking a bit more
probable for early Monday afternoon.


Tue...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc -RA late. Wind ESE at 7-10kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 7-10kts.




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