Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 102010
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
310 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MOCLR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REST OF THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
E OF THE AREA BY TNGT...BEING FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A WEAK SFC TROF
OF LOW PRES IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRES OVER WRN
CANADA. THIS TROF WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MRNG WHILE MOISTURE FEEDS INTO IT FROM THE NW. THERE WILL STILL BE
A FAIRLY DEEP LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER /AT LEAST 5 KFT AND POTENTIALLY
UP TO 10 KFT...WITH THE DEEPER DRY AIR OVER SRN MN AND FILLING IN
GOING N/. THIS DRY LAYER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE GROUND...LET ALONG MEASURING...OVERNIGHT BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE. SO...HAVE MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS ACRS THE
ENTIRE CWFA OVERNIGHT AND KEPT THE GRIDS AS SHOWING THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AS MOVING W TO E. ANY POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS ENDS BY LATE
MRNG AND WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY TMRW AFTN.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN MILD WITH LOW LEVEL W TO SW FLOW
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. THE COLDER AIR...ALONG WITH ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION...WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA. THEREFORE...LOWS TNGT WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
RECORDED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED
TDA...DUE TO A MORE SLY COMPONENT IN THE SFC WINDS RATHER THAN THE
NW COMPONENT TDA. MAX TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY RANGE 60-70
DEGREES...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LWR 70S IN SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE COOL WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
CHC/S OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IF ALL THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER WED/THU. HOWEVER...THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE AND FAST
MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STARTS TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NOSE OF JET HAS
INDICATIONS OF FOCUSING IN EC MN/WC WI AFT 9Z SATURDAY. THIS LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IF WE GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE FAST
NATURE OF THE JET INTERACTION WILL LEAVE QUESTIONS ACROSS MPX CWA.
THE BEST CHC OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AMTS ABV ONE INCH WILL OCCUR
FROM SC MN TO WC WI SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...ONLY SCATTERED
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MAINLY BEFORE NOON. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE EAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHUT OFF THE MAIN
MOISTURE FEED TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS OF A
SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
IA/SOUTHERN WI...BUT HOW FAR NW THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE GETS INTO
MN REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. CONFIDENCE IN A SHARP CUT OFF FROM NO
RAINFALL TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE HIGH ACROSS SC/SE MN AND
INTO WC/CENTRAL WI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AMT OF
RAINFALL AS THIS AREA WILL BE PRONE TO RIVER FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEVELOPS. A HYDRO SECTION HAS BEEN ADDED TO THIS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS BELOW.

PAST SUNDAY...THE COOL WX CONDS WILL DEVELOP THRU MIDWEEK BEFORE
SOME MODIFICATION DEVELOPS BY THU/FRI. HOWEVER...AS THE
MODIFICATIONS DEVELOP...THERE IS A CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS
ALL THE RIGHT ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR XPCTD THRU THIS TAF SET. HOWEVER...LIKE OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MRNG...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPR LVL WAVE MOVG THRU THE
AREA WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WEAK -SHRA ACRS ALL
TERMINALS FROM W TO E. BECAUSE OF CONTINUED DRY LOWER LEVELS ACRS
THE AREA...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS VFR...AND BECAUSE
PRECIP CHCS ARE RELATIVELY LOW /ONLY ARND 30 PERCENT/...THEY MAY
POSSIBLY BE REMOVED IN LATER TAF CYCLES. DID WANT TO INCLUDE IT
HERE TO ADVERTISE THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP BUT
NOT MUCH. HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN WILL STEADILY LOWER AND FORM
MIDLVL CIGS DURG THE EVE HRS. CIGS LOOK TO GET AS LOW AS ARND 5
KFT BEFORE RISING AND DISSIPATING FRI MRNG. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO W...THEN
REMAIN FROM THE SW TO WSW THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...INCRG BACK
TO ARND 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS INCRS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER
THRU THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ISOLD -SHRA IN THE PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT
NOTHING THAT SHOULD DROP CONDS OUT OF VFR RANGE. CLOUDS THEN LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT TMRW MRNG INTO TMRW AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY...MVFR CIGS LATE. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA LATE.
WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG SE.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS
BCMG N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISING RIVER LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE
MPX AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH MINOR QPF OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MOST RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FS WITH ONLY
A COUPLE OVER ACTION STAGE. HOWEVER...IF QPF POTENTIAL OF 1.5
INCHES ARRIVES OVER THE CHIPPEWA WI BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WE
COULD SEE THE CHIPPEWA AT EAU CLAIRE AND DURAND REACH FLOOD STAGE
BY MONDAY. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THAT THREAT...WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WATCH TOMORROW IF WE GAIN SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE IN QPF.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC
HYDROLOGY...CCS




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