Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 201705
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER...AS
WE WONT QUITE BE ABLE TO MIX TO 900MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERN MN WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO
THE EAST. WESTERN WI WILL STALL OUT IN THE MID 50S IN PART THANKS
TO THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BECOME A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. DYNAMICS LOOK DECENT WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS WAS
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PV ANOMALY PUSHES
THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REASON FOR THIS WARMTH
HOWEVER...IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP TROUGH PUSHES
EAST. WE LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A DECENT SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. ONLY CONCERN FOR CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE KEAU AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPR LVL TROF WILL
NUDGE MIDLVL STRATOCU SWD OVER FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI. KEAU MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME MIDLVL CEILINGS THRU LATE AFTN...OTHERWISE
COVERAGE WILL BE NO MORE THAN SCT FOR KSTC-KMSP-KRNH...WITH BOTH
KAXN-KRWF TOO FAR DISPLACED FROM THIS CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP
THEM SKC AT INITIALIZATION. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING INTO TNGT AS DEEP HIGH PRES ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT ALL SITES TO LGT/VRBL FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...THEN PICK UP FROM THE E-SE JUST BEFORE DAWN.
SPEEDS THEN INCRS TO 8-15 KT BY LATE TMRW MRNG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOR PRECIP XPCTD THIS TAF SET.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO VSBY/CEILING/PRECIP PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. NNW WINDS THRU THIS AFTN DROP OFF THIS EVE TO
LGT/VRBL...SWINGING ARND TO THE E. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE
TMRW MRNG AND INCRS IN SPEED AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW TO 5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.