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000
FNUS73 KMPX 211248
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for SMSC Rx Burn...Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
748 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on April 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...West winds 10 to 15 mph may occasionally gust in
the low 20s this afternoon. RH is expected to drop into the low
20s by late in the day.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Temperature.........56 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................30 percent at ignition...Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 14 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /108800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /123600 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  59  60  61  61  60  58  55  52  49  47  44
RH..............30  26  24  23  22  23  26  30  33  39  42  47
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..14  14  14  14  14  12  10  6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.21  21  21  22  20  17  15  10  9   8   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...6.4 6.7 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.3 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.20  21  21  21  20  18  13  8   8   9   9   9
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Min 37.
RH..................Max 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 6 to 9 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (100600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 18 mph shifting to the southwest 9
                    to 16 mph overnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning. Chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 18 mph with gusts to around
                    29 mph shifting to the southwest 20 to 23 mph
                    with gusts to around 36 mph late in the
                    morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (81700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (89100
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 25 mph increasing to 28 to 33
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Borghoff
Requested by...Rachel Crownhart
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411574.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rachel.crownhart@shakopeedakota.org