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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250701
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
301 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry air, clear skies, and light winds today through
  tonight.
- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions are likely on
  Thursday with minimum relative humidities in the 20 percent
  range. Light southeast winds will keep the area from meeting
  critical thresholds.
- Two low pressure systems, one this weekend and another into
  early next week, bring an unsettled pattern. A brief period
  for severe weather is possible Saturday into Saturday night,
  however confidence remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

GOES satellite imagery shows completely sunny skies over the U.P.
early this afternoon as a high pressure sets up over Lake Superior
for the rest of today through tonight. This high will keep winds
light across the area through tonight, with many of the interior
areas becoming completely calm during the overnight hours.
Meanwhile, local observations have shown temps struggling to get
into the 40s, with so far only the interior west succeeding in doing
so. With cold air aloft being stubborn in leaving the area the rest
of today through tonight, expect highs to be limited to the 40s
across most of the area, save a few spots in the interior west
hitting 50 and the upper 30s along the Lake Superior shoreline; as
for lows, thinking they will generally be in the 20s, although a few
spots in the interior east could dip down into the upper teens
tonight. Expect the dry conditions created by the high pressure to
continue through the short-term too; min RHs are still expected to
bottom out into the upper teens to around 20%, while RH recoveries
tonight are looking to only max out in the 70 to 90% range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW, a
shortwave in the central Rockies, and a ridge across the Mississippi
Valley into the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. This shortwave gets
kicked out into the central plains 12z Fri and becomes negatively
tilted by 00z Sat. This shortwave moves into the upper Great Lakes
12z Sat as the Pacific NW trough dives into the southern Rockies.
The shortwave still affects the upper Great Lakes on Sat through 00z
Sun and then the trough in the southern Rockies heads northeast into
the northern and central plains 12z Sun. Deeper moisture and 850-500
mb q-vector convergence arrives by 00z Sat over the far west and
spreads across the area through 12z Sun. Slowed down pops on Fri
further and even into Fri evening as model trends continue to delay
the onset of pcpn. Antecedent dry airmass over the area would also
argue that low levels will take a while to saturate with a dry
southeast flow, so this would argue again to delay pops on Fri.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over
the Rockies and plains 12z Sun with a shortwave that heads northeast
and negatively tilts into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Mon. This
shortwave heads northeast into Ontario 12z Tue. Upper ridging sets
up over the plains 12z Wed and becomes more amplified with time 12z
Thu. Active and wet pattern continues this forecast period. Tue does
look to be the driest day along with Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Clear skies prevail through the forecast period as high pressure
remains over the area. Light winds overnight become southerly
at IWD and SAW this morning as the high pressure shifts east.
East-southeasterly winds prevail at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds below 20 kts into
this evening. Southeast winds will increase to around 20 kts tonight
with southeast/east to 20-30 kts Friday and Friday night; the
strongest winds are expected along the U.S. Canadian border waters
of eastern Lake Superior. The low pressure then tracks northeast
across the lake late in the day Saturday into Saturday night
resulting in 20-30 kt north winds Saturday night becoming northeast
on Sunday behind the low pressure system. Northeast winds remain
around 20-30 knots through Sunday night with a few gale force gusts
to 35 knots possible near Isle Royale and across the west half of
Lake Superior. Another low pressure system moves through the Upper
Great Lakes Monday into Monday night with winds up to 30 knots
yielding west winds behind the low that are expected to diminish
back below 20 kts by Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07