Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
322
FNUS73 KMQT 071324
FWSMQT
Spot Forecast for Soldiers Lake Pile...USFS Hiawatha NF
National Weather Service Marquette MI
924 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
An occluded front associated with a mature low pressure system over
the Dakotas will be passing through the area this evening. Ahead of
the front, mostly clear skies will prevail for the morning hours
until high clouds filter in for the afternoon. Easterly to
southeasterly winds will be around 10-15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. RHs will fall to near 35 percent this afternoon with about
a 1-in-4 chance of RH`s falling below 30 percent by 3PM. By around
8 PM, chances of showers increase to around 20 percent and by 10PM,
shower chances increase to around 80 percent. Showers then linger
in the area until around 1PM Wednesday. Total rainfall has a
50 percent chance of falling in the range of 0.6 to 0.9 inches
with only a 10 percent chance of falling outside of the range of
0.55 to 1.1 inches. Chances of lightning overnight are in the
15-30 percent range.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........66 at ignition...Max 68.
RH..................32 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Dewpoint............34.
33-foot winds.......Winds southeast at 15 mph at
ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 12 to 16
mph.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 0 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (0) at ignition. Max...poor (0.0).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 2.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......24.
TIME (EDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........39 37 61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............66 68 67
Dewpoint........35 34 34
RH..............32 29 29
33 ft wind......SE 15 SE 15 SE 16
20 ft wind......SE 12 SE 12 SE 13
Wind gust.......18 18 20
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Haines index....2 2 2
VIndx kt-ft/100.0 0 0
Ceiling (kft)...25 24 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
likely in the evening. Slight chance of
thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers
overnight. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2300, then 2 until 0500, then 1.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 99 percent.
Dewpoint............36 increasing to 45.
33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 12 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
evening.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (0.0).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.45 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......19 decreasing to 0.4.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........79 84 88 92 92 94 91 93 91 90 93 93
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20 40 50 60 60 70 70 70 80 80 70 70
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
Temp............64 61 57 54 51 50 49 49 48 48 47 47
Dewpoint........35 37 38 40 42 44 45 45 45 45 45 45
RH..............34 40 49 59 71 82 86 85 87 90 92 94
33 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E
33 ft wind spd..15 15 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12
20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E
20 ft wind spd..12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Wind gust.......18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
VIndx kt-ft/100.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ceiling (kft)...19 14 8.4 6.9 5.4 3.9 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog early
in the morning. Rain showers likely in the
morning and early afternoon. Chance of rain
showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 56.
RH..................Min 76 percent.
Dewpoint............46.
33-foot winds.......East winds 8 to 10 mph shifting to the
northeast 9 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (0.0).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.17 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......0.4 increasing to 3.6.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........93 90 94 89 78 75
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).70 60 60 60 50 50
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............46 47 49 51 53 54
Dewpoint........45 46 47 48 48 47
RH..............96 99 94 90 82 78
33 ft wind......E 10 E 10 NE 8 NE 9 NE 9 N 10
20 ft wind......E 8 E 8 NE 6 NE 7 NE 7 N 8
Wind gust.......14 14 12 12 12 13
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2
VIndx kt-ft/100.0 0 0 0 0 0
Ceiling (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.6
$$
Forecaster...GS
Requested by...Patty Carrick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413339.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patricia.carrick@usda.gov