154
FXUS66 KMTR 012356
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
456 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 107 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

A ridge of high pressure will keep conditions mild to warm across
the region throughout late week. Breezy onshore winds will keep
temperatures cooler near the coast. Wet, unsettled conditions
returning Friday night into Saturday, much cooler inland Saturday.
Unseasonably cool daytime highs continuing into early next week then
gradually warming by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 107 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

Dry weather conditions prevail tonight with temperatures falling
into the mid-to-upper 40`s to lower 50`s regionwide. Only expecting
low clouds near the Monterey Peninsula, if at all, as dry conditions
remain aloft. By sunrise, any low clouds that do develop with
quickly dissipate.

Thursday will see stronger northerly winds out over the ocean, peaks
near the coast, and inland higher terrain with gusts up to 45 mph
(gale force out over the ocean). Temperatures will likely reach the
60`s near the coast with mid-to-upper 70`s to near 80F inland.
Again, clear sky conditions are expected to persist.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024

Dry Thursday and Friday, increasing clouds Friday night with rain
developing over the North Bay, rain spreading southeastward across
much of the rest of the forecast area Saturday. It`ll turn noticeably
cooler especially inland Saturday with daytime highs Saturday 10F to
18F cooler inland compared to Friday`s forecast highs.

In the last 12-24 hours global and mesoscale models are more in line
focusing on the arrival of a cold core low pressure system from the
Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands arriving in northern California Friday
night and Saturday. The southeastward trajectory takes it across
cooler than normal sea surface temperatures (negative phase PDO)
at least somewhat minimizing maritime thermal modification along
the way and for maintenance/development it`ll travel through a long
wave trough on the West Coast. The low will brush by and tap higher
levels of water vapor extending far north of Hawaii, however the
low is forecast to move through our forecast area retaining a strong
mid-latitude influence. Recent precipitable water values on the GFS
have been 1.00" to 1.10" for Saturday, not far from the max moving
average on Oakland upper air sounding climatology in early May.
Model forecast rainfall amounts vary from 0.25" to 0.70" North
Bay, 0.15"-0.25" low elevations to 0.40" hills/mountains elsewhere
across the Bay Area to around 0.10" interior north Central Coast
to 0.33" Big Sur Coast. Wet and cooler weather Saturday, gusty
northwest winds over the coast temporarily subsiding with the
passage of a surface cold front/trough. Dry weather returns
Sunday. The surface pressure pattern looks favorable for gusty
northwest winds redeveloping over the coastal waters beginning
next Tuesday. Daytime highs gradually warming by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Breezy and gusty surface winds continue
into the early night. Winds slowly ease near the surface into the
night, for APC and LVK winds aloft turn more northerly and increase
to around 30-35 kts from roughly 2000ft AGL. This will introduce
directional and speed shear for those terminals overnight. It is not
until the mid to late morning of Thursday that wind shear
diminishes. Gusty northwest winds build in Thursday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds
with around 25 kt gusts linger into the late evening/early night
before becoming lighter. Stronger northwest winds build into
Wednesday afternoon, peaking around 18 kts and gusting to around
30 kts.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy winds
last into the late evening before reducing. Winds stay light to
moderate through the night before breezy to gusty westerly winds
arrive Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 455 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

Expect breezy and gusty winds continue through Friday, with gale
force gusts of 40 to 45 knots possible in the outer waters. Strong
winds will result in hazardous seas and steep wind waves with
significant wave heights reaching 12 to 18 feet in the outer
waters. Conditions gradually improve over the weekend and into
next week as winds begin to ease. Rain chances begin early
Saturday as a trough descends over the region.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon
     Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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