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000
FXUS66 KMTR 140304
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
804 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and into the overnight hours while shifting southward. Storm chances
decrease overnight, but showers linger into Sunday afternoon before
dry weather returns. A warming trend is then expected throughout
the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

By this afternoon and evening we will transition to post frontal
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as the atmosphere aloft
becomes more unstable. CAPE values are forecast to be between 200-
300 J/kg with little to no CIN. Any heavier showers and/or
thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, copious amounts of small hail, occasional lightning,
and rapid onset of flooding. Thunderstorm potential will shift
southward tonight and diminish Sunday morning.

Lingering showers will be possible over the Central Coast through
Sunday afternoon with conditions clearing out by the late evening.
Temperatures will struggle to warm into the upper 50s near the coast
to low/mid 60s inland on Sunday (40s in the highest peaks).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High pressure will begin to build in wake of the exiting weather
system and will allow for a warming and drying trend to resume. By
Wednesday and Thursday, expecting the interior to warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s with upper 60s to mid 70s near the coast.
Friday and beyond, zonal flow sets up across the region allowing for
a few degrees of cooling across the interior and more so at the
coast with a likely return of a marine layer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 804 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

MVFR-VFR. KMUX radar shows light showers over land and a bit more
widespread shower development over the coastal waters and offshore
waters closer to the low pressure system.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR-VFR. Occasional showers and southeast to
east wind tonight and Sunday morning. Wind shifting to westerly
10 to 15 knots Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR. Showers and east to southeast winds
tonight and Sunday morning. Wind shifting to westerly 10 to 15
knots Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 220 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Breezy fresh to strong winds continue across the coastal waters
in wake of a frontal passage. The occasional near gale force
gust, particularly in the southern coastal waters, cannot be ruled
out through tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
impact the waters this evening and into the overnight hours before
diminishing in coverage on Sunday. Moderate period northwesterly
swell will continue to build through the waters through tonight
beginning its abating trend Sunday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...RGass

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