860
FXUS66 KMTR 081158
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
458 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

A warming trend begins Wednesday as offshore winds develop, with a
Wind Advisory in effect for the North Bay Interior Mountains until
Thursday morning. Warmest temperatures are expected Thursday and
Friday before a slight cooldown into the early part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

Clear sky conditions continue across the region this morning and
offshore winds have developed aloft. This will result in a warming
trend today with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 80`s across
the interior while 60`s will be common near the coast (70`s in
places such as Santa Cruz). A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
the North Bay Interior Mountains with gusts expected to reach 45 mph
and may exceed 55 mph in the Mayacamas Mountains through Thursday
morning. Gusts in the East Bay Hills are not expected to be
widespread enough to warrant an advisory, but Mount Diablo is
expected to see similarly strong, gusty winds.

Overnight lows will be warmest in the North Bay and interior part of
the East Bay given the offshore flow with temperatures only expected
to cool into the mid-to-upper 50`s (lower 60`s in the highest
peaks). Elsewhere, upper 40`s to mid 50`s are expected overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

The warming trend continues into the early part of the upcoming
weekend, with Thursday and Friday expected to be the warmest days of
the week. High temperatures will range from the upper 60`s to lower
70`s near the coast (lower 80`s in places such as Santa Cruz and
downtown San Francisco), to the upper 80`s to lower 90`s inland,
especially by Friday.

From previous forecaster: "The seasonably warm temperatures are
causing a minor to moderate HeatRisk, meaning that a low to moderate
risk for heat related illnesses exists for vulnerable populations
(children, the elderly, pregnant women, or those without adequate
shelter or cooling), with moderate HeatRisk values concentrated in
the interior regions of the North, East, and South Bays.

With the significant warm up expected for the rest of the week,
here`s a reminder of some heat safety tips:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids.
* Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing.
* Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade.
* Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles.
* Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

The heat should start to abate on Sunday as onshore flow returns to
the region, but temperatures warmer than the seasonal averages are
expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with CPC products
stating that temperatures above seasonal averages continue into the
third week of May."

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Little change from previous issuance.
Strong and gusty offshore winds will strengthen into the afternoon
today with sustained speeds generally around 15 knots, and gusts up
to about 25 knots. It is not until the late night that winds are
expected to ease near the surface. However, winds aloft will remain
strong, hence the introduction of LLWS into select TAF sites.
Confidence on LLWS development late tonight is moderate. Most recent
model guidance has decreased wind speeds aloft, though continues to
show at least a 20 knot difference between the surface and 1000-
2000` winds, therefore have kept LLWS in the TAFs for now. This will
be something to keep an eye on in future updates.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR presides over the TAF period. Current winds
are below 10 knots this morning, but are expected to steadily
increase through the morning and afternoon to become strong and
gusty out of the N. Gusts are likely to near the 25 knot mark this
evening. Around midnight, slight wind shear is expected to develop
around the terminal as winds aloft turn to become more NE, and
surface winds ease slightly. Again, this will be something to watch
in future updates. Surface winds become more NE in the early morning
of Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. FEW low clouds
may crowd the terminal this morning per model guidance and current
satellite imagery, though not expecting a CIG to form. Winds are
currently light, but will gradually increase through the day to
become breezy to moderate out of the N/NW, differing slightly in
direction compared to more northern terminals. Winds settle into the
late night and turn to become more NE.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 458 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

Strong and gusty northerly winds continue through the evening
tonight, but slowly ease to become fresh to moderate by Thursday.
By Friday, winds are largely gentle across much of the waters. As
a result of the stronger winds today, wave heights 13 to 14 feet
can be expected in the outer waters today and early Thursday.
Wave heights gradually diminish to around 5 to 7 feet by late
week. Dry weather continues through the forecast period as high
pressure dominates.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ504.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this
     afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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