626
FXUS63 KPAH 111714
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1214 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through the weekend with a warming
  trend to near the 80 degree mark by Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday into Tuesday.
  Potential for severe weather and/or flooding issues is
  limited.

- After a midweek break, another chance of showers and storms
  is in the forecast for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Mainly clear and dry conditions are anticipated through much of
the weekend. The main exception is a temporary increase in mid
level clouds early today across the Wabash River Valley and
Evansville Tri-State in association with the passage of a
shortwave trough across the Ohio Valley. As weak ridging builds
east from the Plains, temperatures should warm through the 70s
today, then pop above the 80 degree mark on Sunday.

A wet pattern still appears likely next week as an upper low
and troughing currently over the southwestern U.S. approach
early in the new week. Expect a couple periods of showers and
isolated storms through the week. The first will impact the
region Monday into Tuesday, while the second arrives later in
the week with the approach of an upper level trough within a
quasi-zonal split flow pattern.

The synoptic setup still doesn`t appear particularly favorable
for severe weather with generally marginal shear and instability
anticipated. Flooding also appears to be a lower probability
with rainfall totals generally forecast in the one half to 1.5
inch range for the first half of the week. However, a localized
water issue certainly can`t be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Overall
great flying weather with modest winds out of the northwest.
Winds will go light and variable overnight and pick up out of
the southwest tomorrow but will still be fairly light. Some
scattered high clouds will work into the area tomorrow morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJP
AVIATION...SHAWKEY