Text Products for ESF Issued by PBZ

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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FGUS71 KPBZ 281657
ESFPBZ
WVC069-061700-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1157 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...Flood Potential is near normal the next two weeks...

...Flood Potential is near normal to slightly below normal through
spring...

The coverage of this outlook is limited to the states of Ohio and
Pennsylvania.

PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS...
Over the last two weeks, rainfall has generally been in the 0.50 to
2.00 inch range. This is 50 to 125 percent of normal.

For more information please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/precip

SOIL MOISTURE...
Soil moisture is currently near to slightly below normal across a
large portion of the basin. Most soil moisture is in the 20-70th
percentile range. Normal is considered in the 30-70th percentile
range.

State rankings:
Ohio - Slightly below normal west and near normal east
Western Pennsylvania - Near normal

For more information please visit:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml

USGS STREAMFLOWS...
The past seven-day streamflows have been near to slightly below
normal.

State rankings:
Ohio - Near normal
Western Pennsylvania - Near normal

For more information please visit:
https://watermonitor.gov

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pools across the Ohio
Valley.

OHIO RIVER FLOWS...
Ohio River flows are currently below normal.

Observed values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above
normal and below 100% are below normal.

Pittsburgh - 110%
Huntington - 90%
Cincinnati - 90%
Louisville - 90%
Evansville - 75%
Smithland  - 70%

SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK...
There is no significant snowpack in the basin.

For more information please visit:
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa

ICE COVER...
There is no ice in the basin.

2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
A more active rainfall pattern is on tap for the first half of
March before things turn drier in late March. This will result in
slightly above normal rainfall for the first half of March.
However, the slightly above normal rainfall will be offset by
above normal temperatures, above normal soil temperatures and
decreased runoff because greening up of grasses and leaf out is
running 10-20 days ahead of schedule. Therefore, the flood risk is
considered close to normal for the first two weeks of March.
Expect some minor flooding in typical flood prone areas.


OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...
River flows over the next 2 weeks will be slightly above normal on
the Ohio River.

Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above
normal and values below 100% being below normal.

Pittsburgh - 130%
Huntington - 130%
Cincinnati - 130%
Louisville - 130%
Evansville - 130%
Smithland  - 130%

For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please
visit: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

Official forecasts can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc


90-DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK...
The outlook continues to favor normal to slightly below normal
flood risk through spring which means minor to isolated moderate
floods are possible. After a period of wettness in the first half
of March, most forecast data suggests a return to normal or
slightly below normal rainfall from late March through April. It
appears the heaviest rains in the next 2-3 months will fall over
parts of Tennessee, Kentucky into Virginia and West Virginia.

STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK...
Ohio - Minor flooding possible
Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible

For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Flood risk is defined as follows:
Below normal - flooding will be limited
Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations
Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible

Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National
Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early
spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological
conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The
outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions.

The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources
outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This
can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro

Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent
conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels,
soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future
precipitation.

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
