Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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340 FXUS65 KPSR 150555 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1055 PM MST Tue May 14 2024 .UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Lower desert afternoon high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s through the middle part of the week, increasing into the 100 to 105 range Friday into Sunday. Typical late afternoon and early evening breeziness along with mainly dry conditions will persist. Isolated afternoon shower activity will occur in the high country through Thursday, which could cause some erratic, gusty winds that could make their way into the Valley each evening. && .DISCUSSION... The main concern through the forecast period will be the continued elevated fire weather concerns due to the hot temperatures, low humidity, and late afternoon/early evening breezy conditions. Ensembles in overall agreement with lowering heights through Thursday as a weak upper low moves across the region. Not much weather with this system outside of maintaining isolated showers across the high country to the north. With steering flow developing from the north, especially Thursday, some late day outflows could see their way south into portions of the Phoenix valley with some erratic winds. This system will keep temperatures in check, but still hot, mainly into the middle to upper 90s. Typical afternoon breeziness will continue. Highest around Thursday, with maybe some gusts 20 to 30 mph. For Friday and through the weekend, heights again build across the area ahead of troughiness developing along the west coast into early next week. This will push temperatures up several degrees. Lower deserts will see more widespread 100 to 105 degree readings. The minor HeatRisk will increase into the moderate category beginning Friday and into Saturday. Then as we get into next week, we`ll be monitoring the trough to our north which will likely induce gusty winds stronger than what we have this week and further elevate fire weather concerns. Stay tuned as we hone in on the details once we get closer. Temperatures, however, will be several degrees lower and closer to normal and back into the 90s. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The primary aviation weather concern through the TAF period will be the potential for gusty outflows reaching the terminals tomorrow evening, as convective activity is expected over the high terrain to the north. Confidence in an outflow boundary reaching KPHX and KIWA is low at this time. Outside of any outflow boundaries reaching the terminals, wind directions will follow their typical diurnal tendencies, with sustained speeds mostly aob 10 kt and gusts into the mid-to-upper teens developing tomorrow afternoon. Thin, widely scattered cloud layers aoa 10-12 kft can be anticipated at times through tomorrow afternoon before mid and high level clouds move over the region tomorrow evening becoming at times BKN around 20 kft. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the next 24 hours. Winds will favor a westerly component through much of the TAF period at KIPL, with speeds subsiding over the next few hours and gusts redeveloping up to around 20 kt tomorrow evening. At KBLH, winds will maintain a SW to S component through most of the period, with occasional gusts around 15-20 kts late tomorrow afternoon. Mostly clear skies with some passing mid to high level clouds at times will continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into early next week as a result of some periodic gusty winds (mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours), dry fine fuels, and low humidity levels. MinRH levels will be around 10% across the lower deserts and in the teens for the higher terrain areas. Overnight recoveries will range from poor to fair and be in the 20-50% range. Afternoon and early evening wind gusts will be around 20-25 mph, with some periodic higher gusts possible in the higher terrain in the eastern districts due to some high based showers over the mountains. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frieders AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Frieders