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000
FXUS65 KPUB 110547
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely (60-80%) across
portions of the eastern plains and San Luis Valley Friday afternoon.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
weekend.

- Model disagreement raises uncertainty in the forecast for next
week, but a new system is expected to make its way in around Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Currently...

A few light showers were noted over the far eastern plains of
Colorado at 2 pm. Temperatures over the plains ranged from the mid
50s over the divides to mid 60s over the far southeast plains. Over
the larger valleys, temps were in the mid 60s while the mtns were in
the 20s through 40s. Breezy conditions were noted over many
locations with northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph over a good part of
the plains with northwesterly flow over the higher terrain.

Rest of today into tonight...

A 2ndry front will push down the plains early this evening, with a
northeasterly surge moving across the Palmer Divide around sunset
and then pushing south across the remainder of the region during the
early evening hours. A few light showers will be possible through
early evening, with the threat of precip decreasing after sunset.
Variable cloudiness will continue through the evening hours. Mins
around sunrise will be in the 30-35F range plains and 10s mtns and
20s valleys.

Tomorrow...

Just another spectacular day expected with temps in the 60s across
the plains and valleys with cooler temps mtns. Mainly clear skies
are anticipated with light diurnal wind flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Friday...

The upper-level ridge will continue to build in overhead throughout
the day on Friday, continuing our dry and warm trend. At the
surface, winds will largely be from the west-southwest, and somewhat
breezy across our southeast plains. This will be due to a strong
upper low making it`s way down the western coast, increasing wind
speeds aloft. Along with this, high temperatures will noticeably
increase Friday afternoon, hitting the low-80s over most of the
plains and 70s for the higher terrain. All of this will coincide to
create widespread critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon,
mainly across the San Luis Valley and our far southern plains.
Friday evening, the incoming trough will kick a fast-moving
shortwave through our area. As a result, models do show the
potential for some isolated showers across the mountaintops during
the afternoon-evening hours. However, POPs and QPF are still
generally low in the data, so confidence in that is not very high at
this time.

Saturday-Sunday...

The upper low will move fully onshore sometime on Saturday,
increasing flow aloft a bit more as it translates eastwards. At this
point, models begin to diverge on the speed and track of the system,
so things start to become a bit less certain. In general, as the
winds aloft increase, dry and warm conditions should continue
through most of the weekend, and more widespread critical fire
weather conditions are expected to set in across the eastern plains.
The NBM does show POPs beginning to increase from the north on
Sunday, but with the track of the low so uncertain any early
precipitation for next week is still low in confidence (<20%).

Monday Onwards...

The start of the week is even more in flux due to the divergence of
model solutions. The Canadian sends a closed low off to the
northeast, towards northern CO and southern Wyoming. The GFS is
slower and much further south, while the EC fully splits the low,
sending half of it north and the other half south. This is also
completely different from what some of the earlier models runs this
morning had. Given the inconsistency of the system, it is too early
to say exactly when and where the precipitation will pick up for
early next week, but in general we can expect a slightly cooler and
more active pattern through the rest of the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

KCOS: MVFR conditions are expected overnight as low level clouds
materialize around the TAF site. Then VFR conditions are anticipated
during the morning as clouds lift and thin in coverage. Otherwise,
dry conditions with light winds are expected throughout this TAF
period.

KPUB and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
While some low level clouds are expected for KPUB tonight, they are
anticipated to remain above MVFR ceiling conditions. Otherwise, dry
conditions with light winds are expected throughout this TAF
period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for COZ224-228>230-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE