Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FNUS71 KRLX 251126
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Spot Forecast for Pine Creek Units I+J...USFS
National Weather Service Charleston WV
726 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather persists today, with a warming trend in full swing. Arid
conditions will increase fire weather concerns this afternoon, as
RH values bottom out in the teens and lower 20s area-wide when maximum
temperatures are reached around 5 to 6 PM. Breezy to gusty winds increase
today into tonight, with the strongest winds expected across the mountainous
counties. Maximum gusty winds are expected from midnight through Tuesday
morning.

The next system is likely to bring a wetting rain Tuesday
through Wednesday. In the wake of that system, high pressure will
bring a mainly dry finish to the work week.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 18 mph.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................34 to 72.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  40  28  29  38  51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............60  63  66  68  69  70
RH..............28  25  23  20  19  19
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.11  12  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.13  14  15  17  18  18
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............34  42  50  63  70  72
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 3 am.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 16 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................7 to 22.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........41  39  27  28  37  51  51  60  69  75  81  88
Weather cov.....                                        CHC CHC
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  30  50
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  30  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............70  67  63  60  58  55  54  53  53  52  51  50
RH..............19  22  25  25  27  29  31  33  37  41  45  50
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   9   10  10  10  12  12  12  10  10
20 FT wind gust.14  16  17  18  21  23  24  24  24  24  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.16  13  10  10  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............22  8   7   7   11  12  12  12  12  12  12  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely early in the morning. Rain showers in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
CWR.................50 percent increasing to 60 percent early in
                    the morning, then increasing to 70 percent
                    early in the morning increasing to 80 percent
                    late in the morning increasing to 90 percent
                    decreasing to 80 percent in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 23 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 18 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................16 to 33.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  92  89  87  88  89  90  90  89  86  83  80
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50  60  70  80  80  90  90  80  80  80  80  80
Chc of pcpn (%).50  60  70  80  80  90  90  80  80  80  80  80
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............50  49  49  49  50  52  54  55  56  57  58  58
RH..............56  62  69  74  76  75  76  77  76  77  77  76
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  12  13  13  13  12  13  13  13  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.23  21  20  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  15  16  17  18  18  16  13  10  10  13  14
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............17  16  18  25  28  33  27  21  18  18  22  23
Haines index....4   3   3   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...ARJ
Requested by...J. Simms
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408316.1/RLX
.DELDT 03/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jason.simms@usda.org


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