307
FXUS63 KSGF 100528
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1228 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be slightly below normal today and near
  normal on Saturday.

- Drier conditions into the start of the weekend.

- Rain potential returns Sunday Night and continues off and on
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows an elongated upper level trough stretching
from the Great Lakes back west into the central Plains and then
back towards Utah and Colorado. The low level flow has shifted
to the northwest with much cooler drier air in the area with
dews in the 40s. Skies were partly cloudy and temps were in the
middle 70s.

Through Tonight: A piece of shortwave energy will drop south
into eastern Missouri tonight and will bring some clouds to the
eastern half of the area. There could be enough moisture for a
sprinkle near Rolla however the chances are less than 10
percent and most locations will remain dry. A cool night is in
store with lows around 50.

Friday: Northerly flow continues and HREF guidance suggests a
few more clouds than today along with cooler 850mb temps (5-6C).
This looks to keep highs cooler with NBM suggesting most
locations in the lower 70s. A few locations across central
Missouri may struggle to reach 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Saturday through Monday: High pressure looks to slide southwest
of the area on Saturday with mostly clear skies expected. 850mb
temps climb slightly however near average highs in the middle
70s are likely. Upper level energy across the Rockies will
slowly move east Sunday. The lift doesn`t really arrive until
Sunday evening therefore most if not all of the daytime hours
Sunday look dry at this time. Low level flow does turn southerly
and moisture will be increasing with rain chances now in the
60-80 percent range Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday is
looking cooler and wet with highs around 70 if clouds remain
thick all day. NBM prob thunder values of 30 to 50 percent
indicate thunderstorms however not seeing enough instability for
severe storms at this time.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Ensemble model variance exists
however it does appear some rain chances linger into Tuesday as
additional energy drops out of the north. Highest uncertainty is
with Wednesday as some guidance keeps us dry with others
returning precip back to the area. This unsettled pattern looks
to continue through mid week with on and off rain chances. Not a
big signal for widespread hazardous weather however with near
average temps.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A stratus cloud deck may move over portions of central Missouri
early this morning, with MVFR ceilings possible. These low
clouds will remain northeast of the TAF sites. VFR conditions
will occur across the TAF sites today into Saturday as
northwesterly winds will occur today. Gust up to 15 to 20kt
will occur at times this afternoon. Light and variable winds
are then expected this evening into early Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise