Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 212215
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10-30% chance for isolated showers this evening into tonight.
  Most areas will remain dry.

- 20-50% chance for isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
  along a frontal passage Friday afternoon and evening.

- Higher chances (80-90%) of widespread showers and a few
  thunderstorms on Sunday evening through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

This Evening-Tonight: IR imagery depicts weak shortwave energy
sliding across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Moisture return has been very limited behind the
departing high to the east, with dewpoints struggling to reach
into the 40s across the west. Meanwhile, areas to the east are
dry with elevated fire weather conditions persisting through the
late afternoon and early evening. Though light southeast winds
at 10 to 15 mph have inhibited widespread fire conditions
despite relative humidities around 25 to 30 percent.

By this evening, some lift with the approaching shortwave may
spawn a few isolated showers across southeast Kansas into
southwest Missouri and along the Missouri/Arkansas border.
Confidence remains low given the dry air that will need to be
overcome; thus supporting 10 to 30 percent rain chances through
this evening. The chance for a stray thunderstorm remains low (
less than 10 percent), with the HREF backing off from previous
runs of MUCAPE. Forecasting soundings support this trend, with
little to no CAPE being depicted in the area. Most of the area
remains dry through tonight.

Friday: The passing shortwave to the south of the region begins
to phase with the northern energy stream into Friday. An
associated cold front translates from the northwest to
southeast through the afternoon and will be the focus for
isolated showers and a few thunderstorms. Ahead of the frontal
passage, expect temperatures to reach into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. As previously mentioned, moisture return remains
limited. The chances for a few isolated thunderstorms increase
along the frontal passage with HREF depicting a ribbon of
250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. No severe weather is expected given the
lack of shear and minimal instability. While not everyone will
see rain, areas that do may see a quick tenth of inch. Gusty
northerly winds (around 25 to 30 mph) filter behind the frontal
passage. Lows may approach the freezing mark along and north of
Highway 60, especially in low-lying areas and river valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Saturday: A chilly start to the weekend on Saturday morning with
wind gusts tapering off and turning easterly into the
afternoon. Mid- level height rises on Saturday support highs
reaching into the middle 50s (north) to upper 50s/near 60
(south).

Sunday-Monday: A large upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves digs into the desert southwest on Sunday. This
pattern setup supports strong southwest flow aloft and a return
of some quality moisture into the area with PWATs around 1.0
inch (around 75th percentile for mid-March). Ensemble guidance
show small variance on the exact timing and location of a
developing low across Central Plains. Southerly winds will
steadily increase into Sunday afternoon as the low deepens to
the north and west. Low-level moisture return and lift will
erode dry air through Sunday afternoon, before shower and
thunderstorm chances increase into Sunday evening (60-80%). It
should be noted that substantial dry air will be in place across
the eastern portions of the area, potentially being a focus for
some localized elevated fire weather conditions ahead of the
rain.

By Monday, the system continues to progress through the area
with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Recent
trends have supported a slightly quicker system, which could
reduce heavy rainfall potential across the area. This will need
to be monitored over the coming days. Any severe chances remain
uncertain, given the lack of adequate instability. NBM
probabilities of CAPE greater than 500 J/kg remain very low
(less than 10 percent) as the system slides through Monday
afternoon/evening. SPC highlights a 15 percent severe weather
outlook south and east of the area on Monday at this time. As
for rainfall amounts, NBM probabilities depict medium to high
confidence in at least a half inch of rainfall (60-80%) across
the area. Meanwhile, probabilities of greater than one inch are
around 40-60%. The axis of heaviest rainfall may change over
subsequent forecasts, with recent guidance suggesting the
highest amounts may occur across south central Missouri. Expect
gusty south winds and highs in the lower to middle 60s to
accompany the system. Expect rain chances to dissipate from west
to east behind the frontal passage into Monday night.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Colder air digs into the region into Tuesday,
with increasing confidence in temperatures at or below freezing
by early Tuesday morning. NBM probabilities around 30-50% for
the northwest portion of the area. Mean 850mb temperatures drop
to around 0 to 4 C, keeping the area chilly and dry into mid-
week. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be around 5 to 10 degrees
below normal, in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Higher
probabilities exceeding 60% for lows below freezing into Tuesday
night. As we get into late March, frost and freeze may begin to
impact susceptible vegetation as we progress into early Spring.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A few sprinkles are possible near KJLN this evening, but
coverage is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast at all sites. There is a
30% chance for showers Friday afternoon and evening, mainly at
KSGF and KJLN, as a cold front moves through the region. If
showers do impact the TAF sites, MVFR conditions may result.
Look for gusty northwest winds late Friday into Friday night
behind the cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Titus


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