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000
FXUS64 KSHV 240625
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
125 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Cloud cover has increased more quickly this evening and to a
greater extent than guidance initially indicated. Updated sky
coverage grids to reflect this, meshing with mostly cloud to near
overcast skies areawide through the night. Incorporating the
latest CONSShort guidance, trended warmer by a degree or two on
lows, dropping into the lower 60s east to middle 60s west, with
increasing clouds limiting cooling, only reinforced by southerly
surface flow. As of this writing, development of rainfall within
the CWA before 12Z remains negligible in the PoP grids, but a few
showers north of the I-30 corridor before daybreak are not out of
the question, increasing in coverage and confidence into the
morning hours.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Dry conditions will begin to break down by tomorrow, allowing for
an extended period of stormy weather to work it`s way into the
region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
north of I-20, as the region comes under the influence of a cold
front moving through the Midwest. From there, we will more or less
become sandwiched between flow patterns for the rest of the
short-term, containing the rest of the rain chances to our north.
However, included in this "flow sandwich" will be a shift in the
flow aloft back to the south. This will allow for temperatures to
warm into the mid-80s in some locations over the next few days,
before temperatures really begin to increase towards the weekend.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

By the start of our long-term, the aforementioned "flow sandwich"
will finally begin to break down, as upper-level troughing really
begins to dig in to our west. In turn, upper-level ridging will
firmly take hold of the region, allowing for afternoon highs to
push into the upper-80s in some locations. However, the real story
of the long-term are multiple days of severe weather beginning on
Friday, and remaining through the weekend. Currently, the best
chances for severe weather appear to be on Friday afternoon, and
again during the evening/overnight hours on Sunday. Both of these
events will be in association with a squall line moving through
the region. There is still plenty of discrepancy in the overall
timing and extent of hazards anticipated, but at this time it
looks like all modes of severe weather will be possible both days.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will be possible with the convection
moving through the region on Friday, resulting in parts of the
region now being highlighted in a Slight ERO from the WPC.
Rainfall rates could be rather steep, with some locations picking
up 1-2 inches of rain in a few hour window

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

For the 24/06Z TAF period, MVFR to low VFR cigs are currently
observed across our airspace with further deterioration to low
MVFR/IFR at most terminals as daybreak approaches. This is due to
increasing low-level moisture pooling ahead of a weak cold front
to our north across central OK/AR. Expect light southerly winds to
prevail through much of the period, becoming variable across our
NE terminals as the frontal boundary attempts to backdoor south
into our airspace. Cigs should slowly improve back to low VFR or
possibly higher end MVFR across our northern sites depending on
exactly how far south the front manages to get before stalling.
Some patchy fog may also limit vsbys briefly this morning, and
will monitor for isolated convection along the front with TEMPO
SHRA/TSRA conditions possible late in the period at KTXK/KELD.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  85  69 /  20  10  10   0
MLU  81  63  85  65 /  20  10  10   0
DEQ  74  60  79  64 /  40  40  40  20
TXK  78  64  82  68 /  30  30  20  10
ELD  77  60  82  64 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  81  66  82  69 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  81  64  82  68 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  83  63  84  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...19