547
FXUS64 KSHV 100801
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
301 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

For the first time in what feels like a long time, I present to
you a shorter discussion containing no weather. Now that this
insanely stubborn front has finally moved out of the region, weak
upper-level ridging will move overhead into the weekend. This will
allow for somewhat drier air to filter into the region, keeping
the clouds and rain at bay. Temperatures will also run seasonal
for this time of the year, with highs ranging in the low to
mid-80s, and lows ranging in the mid-50s to low-60s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Unfortunately, our quiet pattern quickly comes to an end on
Sunday. This will be the first day of a rather active long-term,
with multiple days of heavy thunderstorm activity anticipated into
next weekend. This wet pattern will be associated with multiple
shortwave troughs moving through the central Plains, with only a
day or two break in-between. The heavy rain will likely be the
talking point over the next week, but severe weather is not out of
the question as well. However, there are still a lot of
uncertainties regarding airmass recovery each day given ongoing
rain, currently limiting severe potential. Pivoting back to the
heavy rainfall, current QPF values are widespread 3-6 inches of
rainfall into next weekend, with locally heavier amounts certainly
possible.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

For the 10/06z TAFS...Convection has finally cleared all the TAF
sites and most of the region. VFR conditions have return to all
sites, except at KLFK, where MVFR skies and patchy fog remain
ahead of the front. However, VFR skies should return there in the
next hour or two, as the front moves through. Scattered low cigs
will move into the region in wake of the front. Can`t rule out
some brief MVFR low cigs across East Texas overnight, so decided
to add tempo groups to account for that. Otherwise, VFR with
scattered cirrus to prevail for most of the day on Friday, with
northeast winds between 5 to 10 mph. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  83  65 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  83  60  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  80  55  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  83  59  83  63 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  81  55  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  83  61  79  64 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  83  62  80  63 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  85  64  82  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20