Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
000
FXUS64 KSJT 280705
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
205 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The main concern in the short term forecast will be the potential
for strong (marginally severe) thunderstorms for areas generally
east of an Abilene to Junction line. As mentioned in previous
discussions, an upper level shortwave is making its way through
the area. And although there is limited moisture available, lift
and cold temperatures aloft are expected to result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms for our eastern counties. Short range CAMs
continue to show the best coverage and most intense storms just
east of our area. Storms are expected to develop by 4 or 5 PM this
afternoon. Most of the activity, with the exception of a few
lingering showers, should be east of our forecast area by 8 PM.
A weak cold front will move through behind the trough this
evening turning winds to the north at 10 mph or less. Lows will
range from the upper 30s in our northwestern counties to the lower
40s for southern and eastern areas. For Thursday, dry weather is
expected with continued warming, as highs get into the mid and
upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A gradual warming trend will continue through the weekend, with
weak ridging and generally zonal flow across the area, followed
by an approaching upper-level trough from the west to kick off the
workweek next week. High temperatures are expected to reach into
the mid 80s to low 90s this Sunday across West Central Texas, with
the next cold front tracking through the area late Monday through
Tuesday. This front will drop overnight low temperatures Monday
night into Tuesday morning into the mid 40s to mid 50s, and
Tuesday and Wednesday`s highs only reaching into the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Precipitation chances will also increase with the passing
of this front, with showers and thunderstorms possible across much
of the area and heaviest amounts expected across the eastern
portions of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Light and variable winds this morning will become south and
increase to 10 to 12 knots, with higher gusts, by late morning or
early afternoon. Expect winds to decrease this evening. Patchy
areas of fog may develop toward daybreak across our eastern
counties. Most of the fog should remain to the east of KBBD and
KABI, so have left a mention out of the TAFs at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 76 55 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 79 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 80 53 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 74 52 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 76 56 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 76 52 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
Brady 76 53 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...Daniels