894
FXUS64 KSJT 071919
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
219 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Well-above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Much
drier air has filtered into our area today with weak north to
northwest winds. A surface low will develop into southwestern Kansas
by this evening. As a result, light winds will switch around to the
south late this afternoon and evening, and continue overnight. This
setup will result in low-level moisture return, with low cloud
development expected late tonight into mid-morning Wednesday across
much of the southern half of our area into the Heartland. For late
this afternoon and early evening, a low possibility of a couple of
isolated showers and thunderstorms exists in our southeastern
counties, where drier air only partially filters in and the moisture
makes a more immediate return. That area has a conditional
possibility of a strong to severe storm, given the forecast
instability and vertical wind profiles. With warm and humid
conditions overnight across our area, lows will range from the mid
60s northwest to lower 70s southeast.

On Wednesday, an upper low will centered be over South Dakota/
Nebraska, with a trough elongating west-southwest into the Great
Basin. A surface low will develop over the Texas Panhandle, and with
westerly low to mid-level flow, a surface trough/dryline will
advance east across our area. This will bring an intrusion of much
drier air. With ample sunshine and 850mb temperatures climbing to 23-
26 deg C, afternoon highs will be well-above normal. For a large
part of our area south of I-20, expect highs to be in the lower to
mid 90s, with a few upper 90s in some of the Concho Valley and the
Northwest Hill Country around Junction.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures through late Wednesday, then a
pattern change to cooler conditions from thursday through the
weekend.

Weak ridging and fairly persistent zonal flow aloft, along with
dry and warm west to southwest flow at the surface, will keep
above normal temperatures across much of West Central Texas
through late Wednesday. A cold front begin to track southeastward
through the area Thursday, with little to no precipitation
expected given the dry nature of this system. However, a
shower/thunderstorms or two could potentially develop across the
far southeastern portions of our area during the afternoon and
evening hours on Thursday. Brought some slight chances into the
forecast during the day Thursday to show the possibility of a few
showers or thunderstorms developing over the Northwest Hill
country and portions of the Heartland.

Once the front passes through the area, and north to northeasterly
winds take hold over the area through the end of the week, we will
see some cooler temperatures remain across West Central Texas
through much of the weekend. High temperatures on Friday are
expected to only reach into the mid 70s to lower 80s, and
gradually warm through Monday reaching back into the 80s across
the area. With low level east to southeasterly flow proceeding
into the weekend, moisture is expected to start returning to the
area, potentially generating a few showers and thunderstorms
late Friday through Sunday. Overall, rain chances will pick up
over west central Texas Saturday afternoon and continuing through
the late afternoon/early evening on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Skies will be generally clear this afternoon through early
tonight. A scattered cumulus field could develop over far southern
and southeastern parts of our area late this afternoon into early
evening. While the possibility of a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for that same area, low
confidence in occurrence and placement precludes a specific
mention for our southern TAF sites. Expect low cloud development
over the southern third of our area and the Heartland (east-
central counties) late tonight into mid-morning Wednesday. To
account for this, carrying MVFR ceilings at our southern
terminals. The KSJT TAF site will be near the the northern edge of
the low cloud field. At this time, have a Tempo group for MVFR
ceiling at KSJT between 12Z and 15Z. Low cloud cover should break
up in the mid- to-late morning with generally clear skies expected
area wide by midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  91  59  81 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  68  97  60  91 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    71  98  64  95 /   0   0   0  20
Brownwood   69  93  61  84 /   0   0   0  20
Sweetwater  65  90  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       67  95  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       71  93  63  87 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19