Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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461 FXUS62 KTBW 030856 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 456 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM (TDY-Tonight)... Issued at 455 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Other than a few clouds decorating the skies along the Nature Coast, it is a mostly clear morning across the Florida Peninsula. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure remains in place today. This should keep light easterly winds in place with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds onshore. Slightly drier conditions are anticipated which should limit how much activity, if any, develops today. Most of the guidance keeps the highest chances across souther parts of the state. In addition, afternoon temperatures will be around 90 degrees, so residents and visitors should stay hydrated to prevent any heat related illnesses. && .LONG TERM (SAT-THU)... Issued at 455 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 During the weekend, an upper level disturbance approaches the stat, but it is expected to fall apart as it moves northeast. As a result, moisture increase over the Peninsula, which should support higher rain chances into Sunday. Then, Bermuda High builds back in bringing very warm and much drier conditions through the rest of the period. If materializes, well above normal temperatures are possible with the potential for record breaking highs by the middle of next week. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and overnight lows near 70 degrees. East to southeasterly winds prevail becoming westerly each afternoon behind the sea breeze. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Easterly winds prevail becoming westerly behind the afternoon sea breeze in most terminals, except FMY/RSW/LAL. WInds become breezy through the day but should decrease through the evening. Slightly drier conditions should limit shower and storms activity but there is a non-zero chance of isolated showers near southern TAF sites later in the afternoon. Otherwise, no concerns. && .MARINE... Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Area of high pressure remains in control over the Gulf waters through the period. Fairly dry conditions are anticipated today. Winds should remain 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening. A weak front to approach portions of the area during the weekend, but highest chances of rain are expected to be over land. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Persistent high pressure remains in control across fire districts through the period. Slightly drier air should keep low chances for showers and storms over the area today. Minimum humidities could drop near critical levels, especially in central portions of the Peninsula. Easterly winds prevail become onshore by the afternoon through before shifting from the south during the weekend. Then, a weak front increase moisture over the weekend and along with it chances of rain into early next week. Interior locations should see most of the activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 71 89 73 / 0 0 20 20 FMY 91 70 90 70 / 10 10 40 20 GIF 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 20 20 SRQ 90 71 89 71 / 0 0 20 20 BKV 92 64 91 65 / 0 0 20 20 SPG 88 73 87 74 / 0 0 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...ADavis