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000
FXUS62 KTBW 101831
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Upper ridging and surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard
will slip eastward over the next 24 hours as a closed upper low and
deep troughing moves through southeast Texas. This upper low and
troughing will lend support to the next major weather system that is
firing up over Louisiana and Mississippi. This weather system will
move east-northeastward over the next 24-36 hours bringing scattered
showers and storms to Florida on Thursday. SPC has placed all of
west central and southwest Florida in a Marginal to Slight Risk for
severe storms on Thursday with damaging winds, isolated tornadoes
and large hail possible. On top of the severe threat, gradient winds
ahead of the front has prompted the issuance of a High Wind Advisory
all day Thursday for all of west central and southwest Florida. By
late Thursday into early Friday, the surface low will be located
over the Great Lakes region and the trailing edge of the associated
cold front will push south and east of the area allowing for
clearing conditions into early Friday morning. Broad surface high
pressure builds in behind this system starting on Friday producing
pleasant weather with rain-free conditions and seasonal temperatures
on Friday and Saturday. As the high moves east of Florida on Sunday,
rain-free conditions continue with above average temps in the mid
80`s to low 90`s likely through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions with gusty southerly winds around 12-17 knots with
gusts to around 30 knots expected through the period. A cold front
moves through the area on Thursday bringing scattered SHRA and
isolated TSRA after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A tight pressure gradient will continue today leading to elevated
winds and seas. These hazardous marine conditions will lead to SCEC
today and SCA late tonight into Thursday. A strong cold front will
move through the area on Thursday bringing scattered showers and
isolated storms to the eastern gulf waters through the day on
Thursday. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds,
waterspouts and large hail possible. In addition to a Small Craft
Advisory, a high risk of rip currents is in effect at all local
beaches for the next few days. Some coastal flooding will also be
possible with the onshore flow, especially at high tide. Coastal
flooding of 2-4 ft in the typical areas around the Big Bend area, 1-
3 ft around Tampa Bay and 1-2 ft in SW FL. As the front exits the
area late Thursday into early Friday morning, high pressure builds
in over the Gulf of Mexico with gradual decreasing winds and
pleasant weather expected for the latter part of the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

High pressure dominates the weather over the area for today with
warm and humid conditions. A cold front will move through the area
on Thursday bringing scattered showers, isolated storms and gusty
winds to the area. High dispersions expected today and tomorrow with
gusty ahead of and in the vicinity of this front. Some storms could
be severe with damaging winds and large hail. High pressure builds
in behind this front on Friday ushering in some cooler and drier air
for the latter part of the week and into the weekend with some
critical RH values likely starting Friday and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  82  64  77 /   0  80   0   0
FMY  72  86  66  83 /   0  50  10   0
GIF  70  87  60  81 /  10  90  10   0
SRQ  72  85  64  80 /   0  80  10   0
BKV  67  83  56  78 /   0  90   0   0
SPG  74  80  66  77 /   0  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Coastal Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...RDavis