Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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103 FXUS65 KTFX 140552 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1150 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Expect scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to continue into the overnight hours. Widespread rain showers are expected tomorrow, along with cooler temperatures. A return to normal temperatures is expected on Wednesday...with a chance of showers. Unsettled weather conditions and cool temperatures are expected this weekend. && .UPDATE... In terms of the weather forecast, I`ve adjusted probability of precipitation and weather grids to reflect movement of showery precipitation and thunderstorms. In reference to hydrology, please, see the HYDROLOGY section below for details, as it has become necessary to issue a small stream flood advisory. - Fogleman && .AVIATION... 14/06Z TAF Period Scattered SHRA and a few TSRA will continue to linger across North Central and Southwestern Montana through the overnight hours as a cold front begins to approach the area. Expect VFR conditions to prevail, with periods of MVFR to IFR conditions in and near TS/SHRA, along with gusty winds and small hail aloft, and KHVR may see some IFR/LIFR conditions due to low cigs early tomorrow morning. Expect increasing coverage of TS/SHRA again tomorrow as the front moves through, with activity decaying after sunset Tuesday. Ludwig Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024/ Key Points for the Short Term: - Rain showers and thunderstorms continue tonight into tomorrow as a cold front moves through tonight bringing cooler and wetter conditions. - Breezy conditions and above normal temperatures today. Rest of today through tomorrow night... As of 2 PM, latest radar continues to show thunderstorms and rain showers developing along the Hi-Line to Canadian Border, Rocky Mountain Front, and adjacent Hi-Plains region. Satellite imagery continues to support showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Montana, especially along the MT/ID border. While some locations may not be seeing a shower or thunderstorm, it`s important to be weather ready when heading outdoors through tomorrow. Latest National Blend of Models 4.2 probabilistic data suggests that between now and 7 PM continues to be the best likelihood (>20%) of general thunderstorm activity to continue for along the Hi-Line and Canadian Border as well as across the MT/ID Border and West Yellowstone area. Primary concerns continue to be with any developed thunderstorms today are lightning, a brief downpour, gusty winds, and small/pea sized hail. After 7 PM, thunderstorm activity is supported to diminish as we lose necessary ingredients to help initiate convection (thunderstorms). There can still be a few light rain showers across Southwest Montana this evening as latest high resolution model guidance supports the probability of precipitation through the early evening hours. Cooler temperatures are in store tomorrow as the cold front moves across our area, bringing scattered rain showers tomorrow morning from northwest to southeast from North Central to Southwest Montana. Rain on snow with already melting snowpack can cause localized minor flooding in areas of poor drainage for tomorrow for the Highwood and Little Belt Mountains. Rain showers diminish for Tuesday evening across the area and high pressure is favored to move back in for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Webb Extended (Wednesday through next Monday)...Expect seasonable weather through the second half of the work week as upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific keeps our upper level flow westerly to northwesterly with a few weak disturbances moving through the area. For the most part, these disturbances will mostly just result in some periods of gusty winds Thursday and Friday as a few rounds of cooler air work their way into the area, but areas along and north of US 2 could see a few periods of light rainfall Thursday and Friday as these disturbances move through. Looking towards the weekend, there seems to be some consensus that a slightly more notable trough will work its way into the Northern Rockies, which could help spur some more widespread rain and mountain snow to at least parts of the area for the weekend. Ensembles diverge for the start of the new work week, though the overall pattern appears to remain unsettled as we head into next week. Ludwig && .HYDROLOGY... A small stream flood advisory has been issued for Belt Creek. The Monarch Fire Department reported that fallen trees in the creek from the recent snowstorm are causing log jams in the creek. This is resulting in the creek coming out of its banks in locations that normally do not flood. The flood advisory will remain in effect until the water returns back to the creek or the impact has been reduced. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 61 43 71 / 50 90 30 10 CTB 46 61 41 70 / 60 70 10 10 HLN 51 66 46 74 / 20 80 30 10 BZN 43 64 42 69 / 50 70 40 10 WYS 36 58 34 62 / 70 70 30 10 DLN 43 64 41 69 / 30 40 20 0 HVR 47 65 43 72 / 40 40 10 20 LWT 44 58 41 65 / 40 70 30 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls