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FGUS61 KTIR 101403
ESGTIR

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
815 AM EDT Wednesday April 10 2024

...Flood Potential for the next two weeks is above normal northern half to near
normal southern half for the Ohio Valley...

...Flood Potential for the next 90-days is near normal for the Ohio Valley...

PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS...
Precipitation the last 14 days ranged significantly from just under an inch to
over 5 inches (50 percent to 300 percent of normal).  Heaviest amounts fell
over the northern half of the basin with eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania
bearing the brunt of the 4 to 5+ inches.  In general, anything north of the
mainstem saw at least 150% of normal.  The lower than normal precipitation was
observed in western and southern Kentucky, middle Tennessee, and northern
Virginia.

For more information please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/precip

SOIL MOISTURE...
Current soil moisture conditions across the region are roughly below normal
south of the Ohio mainstem and normal to above normal north.

State rankings:
Southeast Illinois - Near normal
Indiana - Near normal northern, below normal south
Ohio - Near normal
Western Pennsylvania - Above normal
West Virginia - Near normal
Kentucky - Below normal
Tennessee - Below normal

For more information please visit:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml

USGS STREAMFLOWS...
The seven and 28-day streamflows are above to near normal northern basin, below
southern.

State rankings:
Southeast Illinois - Near normal
Indiana - Near normal
Ohio - Near normal with areas of eastern Ohio above normal
Western Pennsylvania - Near normal to above normal
West Virginia - Near normal
Kentucky - Below normal
Tennessee - Below to near normal

For more information please visit:
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
Reservoir storage will be in a transition period as projects begin to draw down
to summer pools from their winter levels.  The northern projects generally saw
an increase in their pool levels in the past week with the bump in
precipitation.


OHIO RIVER FLOWS...
Current flows along the Ohio River indicate above normal flows.

Values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and below 100%
are below normal.

Pittsburgh - 200%
Huntington - 175%
Cincinnati - 200%
Louisville - 225%
Evansville - 200%
Smithland  - 125%

SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK...
No current snowpack and snow water content across the Ohio Valley.

For more information please visit:
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa

ICE COVER...
Zero ice present in the Ohio Valley.

2-WEEK AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

The two-week outlook calls for above normal rainfall in the western half of the
basin and continued normal to above normal flood potential in the northern
half. The southern basin will see a likely increase in precipitation, but
levels are starting generally below to normal so flood potential remains
normal.  In addition, the spring green-up is very well-along meaning more rain
needed to runoff.

OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...
The Ohio River flow forecasts are expected to be above normal over the next 2
weeks, driven by last week`s and this week`s significant systems.

Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above normal and
values below 100% being below normal.

Pittsburgh - 200%
Huntington - 225%
Cincinnati - 200%
Louisville - 200%
Evansville - 200%
Smithland  - 175%

For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

Official forecasts can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc

The 90-day outlook in the Ohio Valley favors normal flood risk

STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK...
Southeast Illinois - Minor to moderate flooding
Indiana - Minor to isolated moderate flooding
Ohio - Minor to isolated moderate flooding
Western Pennsylvania - Minor to isolated moderate flooding
Southwestern New York - Minor flooding
West Virginia - Minor flooding
Western Virginia - Minor flooding
Kentucky - Isolated minor flooding
Tennessee - Isolated minor flooding

For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Flood risk is defined as follows:
Below normal - flooding will be limited
Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations
Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible

Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National
Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to
summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the
potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
conditions.

The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources
outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This
can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro

Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent
conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels,
soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future
precipitation.


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