Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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926 FXUS63 KTOP 091909 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for the remainder of the week, with seasonable temperatures in the 70s. - Precipitation chances (30-60%) return Sunday and persist through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A very nice afternoon is underway across northeastern Kansas as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s area-wide. Zooming out a bit, a retrograding mid-level low is beginning to separate from the positively-tilted wave entering the northeastern US, taking on a Rex blocking pattern over the western US. This should help to mitigate moisture advection into the area over the next few days and keep the area dry. By Friday, expect similar conditions to this afternoon with temperatures topping out around the mid 70s. By Saturday night, the blocking pattern will begin to break down and push the upper low into the central Plains, increasing rain chances Sunday and into early next week. Instability and shear needed for strong to severe weather will stay south of the area, so mainly expecting widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder through Monday evening. Long range ensemble guidance depicts a wide area of 0.5-1 inch precipitation totals through Tuesday morning with the highest totals in southern and central Kansas and lesser totals further north. Precipitation moves out Tuesday with moisture and shear increasing through the remainder of the week. With some waves passing over the central Plains Wednesday through the end of the week, chances for rain and storms will return to the area once again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR TAFs will be expected at all sites through the period with a breezy and mostly clear forecast. Winds will remain out of the northwest/north and begin to decrease below 10 knots around sunset. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Griesemer