Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 291404
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
604 AM AKDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LOW THAT MOVED RAIN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY IS NOW
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW
CENTERED NORTH OF BARROW WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. ANOTHER LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING NEAR SHEMYA. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA IS NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. A
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY REACHING NORTON SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING.
TO THE WEST...A FRONT IS MOVING MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AHEAD OF A LOW NEAR SHEMYA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTICPATTERN...THEREFORE
ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW
IN THE ARCTIC IS MOVING A STRONG WAVE BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN OVER SOUTH TODAY AND THEN TAPER
OFF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST TO EAST. THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS
MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY OVER THE BERING AND MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE ARCTIC LOW.
RAIN TAPERS OFF TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF STAYING IN THE RAIN PATTERN
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES TO THE ALCAN BORDER. WITH A
COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER AND
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN BERING TO THE
WESTERN GULF BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE GULF.
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING
GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING TO THE WESTERN GULF
OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN TAPER OFF. THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WILL
MAINLY SEE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
COLD FRONT ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND VALLEY BY TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO BRISTOL
BAY ON SATURDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND PATCHY FOG STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT PATTERN. THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTAINS AND THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE ARCTIC LOW WILL BE
THE OTHER FOCUS AS IT MOVES A SHORTWAVE FROM KAMCHATKA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A COOL AND WET PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING HALF OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS THE ARCTIC LOW AND NORTH PACIFIC LOWS MOVE
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTHERN BERING AND MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

KH AUG 14



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