Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Main update with this forecast issuance was to increase POPs over
my southeast. Well organized band of showers/isolated
thunderstorms now along a Low Level Jet axis. Expect this to
continue for another couple of hours then start to move east
and/or dissipate.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)

Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be spotty
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning
across the region, then again this afternoon east. Another chance
at storms now possible Sunday aft/eve north central and east.

Currently...Longwave trough swinging into the Northern Plains
with the trough axis over western North Dakota. High res models
performing rather well, picking up on the broken line of
convection just ahead of the trough axis, and another area in the
James River Valley where scattered showers developed the past
couple hours. A few hundred Joules of MUCAPE available though
little wind shear for any organized convection this morning.

Upper level trough axis will be over the central Dakotas by 12Z
this morning, then moves off to our east Saturday afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorms chances will continue along to ahead of
this feature this morning and afternoon. A dry southwest mid
level flow along with decrease in forcing in the trough`s wake
will end precipitation chances from west to east during the day.

Marginal risk for severe storms across the James River Valley
today. High res models showing organized convection 17-19Z
developing in my far southeast (Stutsman, LaMoure, Dickey
Counties) and exiting my area by 21Z. This seems reasonable so
followed suite. Will mention in the HWO the possibility for a
stronger storm or two for that area. Dry tonight.

Zonal flow develops behind the trough though a rather robust S/WV
trough will be pushing east across southern Canada on Sunday.
Associated surface trough across the high plains Sunday morning
will develop a southerly flow increasing WAA into the area along
with decent moisture advection into the eastern Dakotas. Highs
Sunday will warm well into the 80s across the state with low 90s
probable more than a few locations west and central. Models are
now keying in on convection developing across north central ND
Sunday afternoon as the trough moves east, then extending south
through the James River Valley with time into the evening where
models portray the best boundary layer moisture and instability.
Most favorable area for storms should be north central and east
into the Turtle Mountains near the Canadian S/WV so painted the
higher POPs there.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Warm and dry conditions early next week followed by an
increasingly active pattern towards the end of the week will
highlight the extended forecast.

Quasi-zonal flow continues Monday with surface high pressure
keeping the forecast warm and dry. A slowly amplifying broad
upper ridge is still advertised towards the middle of the week so
will maintain warm temperatures in the forecast. Ridge running
impulses embedded in the flow will bring a chance of
thunderstorms to the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night and
again Wed/Wed night though elevated uncertainty.

Models bring a strong upper level trough into western North
America towards the end of the week so expect an active period
developing as this feature nudges the ridge east resulting in
southwest flow aloft over our region Thursday-Friday and possibly
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)

Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A trough of low pressure extended from a surface low over Manitoba
southwestward to near KMOT and KBIS. This trough is forecast
to move east across ND this morning, reaching the Red River
Valley by around 18z. This trough will be the focus of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. VFR conditions expected at TAF sites, but
some scattered clouds below 3000 feet are possible this morning at
KBIS and KJMS. Otherwise decreasing clouds from west to east
following the passage of the trough.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



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