Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 250802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUD COVER HAS GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
WILL START WITH MOSTLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS BEFORE
12Z. LGT TO CALM WINDS CONTINUE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LGT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
UPPER TEENS IN THE ADKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS
WL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW
TO NE. BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
850 TO 500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY
ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST
SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO
L60S SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS
THE FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT
OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL
DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIP FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED
5H/7H CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED
85H TEMPS <0C ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS.
COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED.
THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN
0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S
NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN
AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT
BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT
NIGHT...AND NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE
DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL
PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS
WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR
40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN OMEGA
BLOCK ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS MODEL KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF MODEL AT TEMPS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF THEN ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN BRINGS MORE SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL FASTER IN
BRING SHOWERS TO REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
BRINGS SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS BOTH HAVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AS
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AND BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY.
SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH 0530Z FRIDAY SHOWING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STREAMING EASTWARD...SO EXPECTING
AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER. EXPECTING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 04Z-06Z
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.

00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.