Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 231430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. A
SPOT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1026 AM EDT SATURDAY...NICE AREA OF CLEARING WORKING INTO
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND BETTER PART OF VERMONT. BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH KEPT A FEW MORE
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP MOVING INTO NORTHEAST VT WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NH. EARLIER FORECAST OF 15 TO 20% POPS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN VERMONT IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE
APPROACHING VORT.

A VERY COMPLICATED ULVL PATTERN CONUS ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
BUILDING RIDGE FROM CANADA...WHILE CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION SLOWLY
LIFTS TWD THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC WITH RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY....WITH A DEVELOPING AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A
VERY SUBTLE S/W IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN VT BTWN 15-21Z
TODAY...WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THINKING ENOUGH BL
LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. WL CONT TO MENTION SCHC POPS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM
1V4 TO VSF TODAY. HAVE NOTED SFC BASED CAPE BTWN 400-800 J/KG...SO
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTN...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED...EXPECT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS...AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN DAILY TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY
DUE TO THE DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS FROM DEVELOPING SFC
HIGH PRES...AND CLR SKIES WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPS WL FALL QUICKLY BEFORE FOG
DEVELOPS...THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE L/M 40S DACKS/NEK TO
L/M 50S CPV/SLV. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES...EXPECTING A MID SLOPE
THERMAL BELT TO DEVELOP BTWN 1500 AND 2500 FT...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S AT THIS ELEVATION TONIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN
BTWN 11-13C ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUNDING SHOWING GOOD MIXING...THIS
WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. HAVE
NOTED SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE BTWN 925 AND 800MB ON SLK
SOUNDING...SO ANTICIPATED SOME SHALLOW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.
ADDITIONAL FOG WL REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH DRIER BL CONDITIONS EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS AREAL COVERAGE.
TEMPS WL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY M/U 40S TO
M/U 50S. ON MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NY WITH SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS PLACES UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WITH DEEP DRY
LAYER IN PLACE. EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14 AND 16C
AND WITH GOOD MIXING...ADDING +15C SUPPORTS MID 80S SLV/CPV...WITH
U70S TO L80S MTNS ZNS BTWN 1200 AND 1800 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS FULL LATITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE HOLDS IN THE EAST. GFS
WARMER THAN ECMWF AS IT AMPLIFIES RIDGE WHILE ECMWF FLATTENS IT
OUT. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF
ECMWF IS CORRECT.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD...RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK. GFS MAINTAINS THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF INDICATES A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE TWO FOR NOW...BUT BELIEVE THE COOLING AND LOWERING HEIGHTS
INDICATED BY ECMWF TO BE A BIT OVERDONE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH DAYS...WITH TEMPS COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
AT MPV THIS MORNING. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
BROKEN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT IFR/LIFR AT MPV/SLK AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR AT REST OF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






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