Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT
THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE
WARNING BASED ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT
ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH (43MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF







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