Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 121136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM 15-00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS
AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN
STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB
TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE
INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ALL TAF SITES ARE FINALLY VFR. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. S AND SW
WINDS AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...VEERING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. S WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM AT BTV GROUND OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT
AND MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY
SAT. LOCAL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
02-05Z ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THRU...WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND
SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT
GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL
BE BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
DEPENDING ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES


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