Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 262035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH A WEST WIND AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED
ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...VERY QUIET WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL OR MOISTURE PROFILES FROM LAST NIGHT.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL BE BUILDING WITH WESTERLY AROUND SFC HIGH
PRES ANCHORED ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS OR NORTHERN
GREEN MTNS...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S MTNS TO L/M 30S MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 40F SLV/CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
CONTS TO BUILD ACRS OUR FA...AS 1000 TO 500MB 540 LINE LIFTS NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z SATURDAY. THIS LLVL WAA ON SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WITH GOOD MIXING
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 50F WITH FULL SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS
AND LIMITED MIXING LVLS WL TREND ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS
30S MTNS TO M40S VALLEYS. A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUN
DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN
SFC AND 850MB...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. ALSO...A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MTNS AFT 18Z SATURDAY...GIVEN
RH PROFILES AND UPSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLW.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC GRADIENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRNT..ALONG WITH PROGGED 85H JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THIS WL CAUSE
SHADOWING OF PRECIP FIELDS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER
VALLEY ON SAT NIGHT...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...AS DEEPER RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH APPROACHES OUR
CWA...THE BEST 5H SUPPORT IS LIFTING NORTHWEST OF OUR FA...AND RH
FIELDS WEAKEN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED QPF. GIVEN THE LACK OF
COLD AIR AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZING RAIN
OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM...ONLY A BRIEF 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH QPF CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MTNS. THE
HIGHEST QPF VALUES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 WL BE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREENS...WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
VALLEYS. LATEST GUIDANCES SHOWS LLVL CAA LAGGING SEVERAL HRS BEHIND
INITIAL RIBBON OF MOISTURE...SO AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW IN THE MTNS...BEST MOISTURE IS EAST OF OUR CWA. A FEW
LEFTOVER FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN FAVORABLE
SNOW GROWTH REGION. WL TREND TWD THE WARMEST GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SLV/CPV...WITH
COOLEST READINGS IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM
THE M30S TO M40S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH PROGGED 85H
TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C BY 00Z MONDAY. THE LACK OF A SHARP
BOUNDARY/THERMAL GRADIENT AND LIMITED QPF WL PREVENT ICY ROADS FROM
DEVELOPING. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MIXING OF
WINDS WHICH WL HELP TO DRY LLVLS OUT. WL MENTION EARLY MORNING HIGHS
IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS...BUT TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 10S
SUMMITS TO MID 20S MIDSLOPES AND 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS WL CONT
TO FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IN THE MTNS...AS LLVL
CAA HELPS SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE IN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLW.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO M/U 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WEST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
US THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM -12C ON
MONDAY TO -16 TO -18C ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX SURFACE TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZER. BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CHANCE POPS
EXTEND INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND CLOUDS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH SOME BREAKS 18Z-24Z TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES, REINFORCING
BROKEN-OVERCAST LAYER. KSLK THE LOWEST CIGS WITH CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
SEEING VFR CIGS. SOME DOWNSLOPE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS WILL CREATE PATCHES OF VFR SCT THAT SHOULD
FILL IN AFTER SUNSET. WESTERLY WIND WITH SOME GUSTS TODAY WILL
WEAKEN IN RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO SOUTH TURN MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A
COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS MIXING/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MVFR CIGS IN NORTHERN NY WITH WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. VFR IN VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



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