Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 070259
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. A FEW OTHER WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND,
AND ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EST FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST STILL LOOKS
IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, BEST CHANCE IN THE
NEAR/SHORT TERM FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW COMES SATURDAY AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INCREASED LOW/MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, AND WANE AFTER AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF BEST MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO, VERY LITTLE CHANCE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING HIGHLIGHTING LIMITED MOISTURE LEADING
TO GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 3" OF SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VERMONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS.

GOING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THOUGH WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS AND
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS SUNDAY PRETTY CLOSE TO SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS 25-35F, AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 7-17F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND
CLEARING SKIES. THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND MILDER TEMPS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND MAY TOUCH
OFF A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RISK OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MILDEST TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
850 MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -5C WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER READINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN HIGHS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...INITALLY VFR BUT WITH GRADUAL LOWERING
CEILINGS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY EXPECT A TREND TO
VFR/MVFR (WITH DEVELOPING INTERVALS IFR LATER SATURDAY).

INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES PRODUCING
MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT UPSTREAM METARS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW
SHOWERS AND WILL JUST GO TO LOWERING CEILINGS. I`VE THEREFORE OPTED
TO SLOW START TIME OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AT MSS AND SLK UNTIL THE
13-15Z TIMEFRAME, WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. PER OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
SHORT- RANGE GUIDANCE, IT DOESN`T APPEAR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
SNOW DEVELOPS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER MANITOBA)
MOVES IN LATER SATURDAY. I STARTED TO TREND VISIBILITIES DOWNWARD
AFTER 19Z AT MSS AND SLK, BUT MAINTAINED VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE
TAFS.

WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT MSS AND AT SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO


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