Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 290009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
809 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC OVER PAST
FEW HOURS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ONE STORM
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY BEFORE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY. ANOTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM NORTH OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY VERMONT IS FINALLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDER.
NOT MUCH ELSE HAPPENING FURTHER SOUTH AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF
SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES
AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/SISSON


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