Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 260245
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1045 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet but warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
There will be a few chances for some light rain showers, but no
significant weather is expected at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1040 PM EDT Monday...Mid level moisture and ascent seen on
water vapor imagery now has moved out of the forecast area, with
broad area of drying and subsidence now over the area. We have a
few convective cells stubbornly hanging on as they move across
northern new york in meager at best low level instability.
Lightning detection picking up a few in cloud flashes, but over
intensity has been on a downward trend over the past hour.

With this update have adjust pops a bit to account for
showers/storms moving east across Lake Champlain in to Vermont,
but still have everything pretty much dissipating shortly after
06z as low level instability is finally exhausted.

Patchy fog remains in the forecast 06-12z for the usual locations
as humid air remains and surface temp easily falls to dewpoints.
Left forecast min temps untouched, but adjusted hourlies to
reflect slower rate of fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 PM EDT Monday...Quieter weather returns for Tuesday
through Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure builds to our
southwest. Temperatures will be above seasonal normals though with
mid 80s expected on Tuesday and near 90 on Wednesday with 850
temps in the teens each day. Some afternoon cu over the mountains
is expected on Tuesday, possibly a sprinkle or light shower in the
higher terrain as a weak shortwave passes along the international
border. Quiet weather and clearing skies will return Tuesday
night, better chance for patchy fog with better radiational
cooling conditions. Lows will be in the 60s Tuesday night.
Wednesday will be the warmer of the two days in the short term
with highs edging up around 90. Westerly flow aloft continues
allowing aforementioned surface ridge to continue to advect into
our region. A weak surface cold front will approach from Canada
Wednesday night and will have a chance of showers along with this
feature, though not abundant moisture. Wednesday night will be
warm and humid with minimum temperatures only dropping into the
mid 60s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 336 PM EDT Monday...Surface ridge building in from south
central Canada with light north-northwest flow will coincide with
500mb troughing providing a low chance for showers on Thursday.
Continued ridging at the surface and slight ridging aloft will
keep Friday dry before low pressure system develops to the
south/west and brings a chance for precipitation late Friday.
Model guidance diverges on evolution of this system associated
with two areas of vorticity embedded in the 500mb flow. 12Z ECMWF
develops these features into a double barrel surface low pressure
system late in the week into the weekend. While 12Z GFS keeps mid
level vorts along more southerly route and surface high pressure
over southwestern Quebec and the northern New England. High
uncertainty in the pattern beyond early Friday. Both models show
mid level troughing across the Northeast late Saturday with the
GFS much broader than the ECMWF. With these differences noted,
have stuck with Superblend with chances for precipitation through
Monday.

Temperatures generally expected to be near normal, but highly
dependent on variability of cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 00z Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible near
KMSS with southern end of band of showers and thunderstorms moving
across southeast Ontario clipping KMSS area. Started out TAF there
with VCSH and mvfr cigs, becoming VFR. Also added IFR vis in fog
06-12z at KMPV and KSLK as expect clearing skies and light wind to
allow radiation fog to develop. Any fog to clear around 12z with
VFR for the duration of the TAF period.

Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday...

00z Wed - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR under high pressure. Isolated
showers possible Wed/Thu afternoons.

00z Fri - Sat: Increasing chances for widespread MVFR showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Hanson



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