Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 182342
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
742 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast of the United States will
maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday.
With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm
well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning
today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next
chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into
Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west
to east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 707 PM EDT Wednesday...Forecast in great shape with
another mild evening across the north country. Surface high pres
is shifting east...while surface boundary approaches the central
Great Lakes. The gradient between these two features will help
to increase sfc winds overnight...especially in the wider
valleys...like cpv/slv. Meanwhile...early this evening...skies
are clear and winds have decoupled in the deeper valleys...along
with very dry air mass has allowed temps to fall quickly. Have
updated to capture rate of fall in hourly grids...but have only
made minor tweaks to overall low temp forecast. Expecting lows
upper 30s/lower 40s slk/nek to l/m 50s cpv/slv with mostly clear
skies.

Previous discussion below:
Going forecast on track. 925mb temps around 12C at BTV per RAP
this afternoon which should yield max temps in the mid 60s in
the valleys lower 60s in the hills this afternoon which is well
covered in the going forecast.

Very quiet wx through the near-term. Generally looking at clear
skies otherwise through tonight. The sfc ridge axis extending
along the east coast of the U.S. and building shortwave ridging
aloft will bring dry weather, but southerly pressure gradient
increases overnight especially west of the Greens with light
south to southwest winds and moderating temperatures. Only a
very small chance for any radiation fog east of the Greens so
left it out. Lows mainly in the 40s for tonight except near 50
in the St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys.

Temperatures moderate further on Thursday under a rather strong
west southwest flow with 850-mb winds 30 to 50 kts leading to
breezy surface winds of around 15 kt with gusts to 25 to 30 kt.
With 925-mb temps around 14C for looking for max temps reaching
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Another mid-upr level shortwave trough is progged to pass along
the intl border Thursday afternoon. This feature should bring
an increase in mid-upr level clouds, but dry low-level
conditions should preclude any precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 PM EDT Wednesday...A rather dry cold front will pass
through the region Thursday night with some clouds especially in
the northern Green mountains where a sprinkle can`t be ruled
out. 925mb temps drop to about 8C near BTV on Friday for
"cooler" high temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s, still a bit
above normal. High pressure will slide across the mid-Atlantic
states and off the coast lead to quiet weather conditions with
mostly clear skies under broad subsidence. Return SW flow around
the high with warm advection over the weekend will will bring
warming temps each day with upper 60s Saturday to 70 by Sunday.
Each night we`ll radiatively cool and should see temps in the
upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 352 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will be the dominant
feature over the weekend. Surface ridge axis will slide
eastward over the Atlantic seaboard, increasing warm
southwesterly flow. This will result in daytime max temperatures
in the mid 60s to low 70s to close out the weekend. Min
temperatures will see a warming trend heading into the work
week, from mid 40s to mid 50s.

The beginning of the work week will see a pattern change as a
cold front associated with a mid-upper level longwave trough
approaches from the west. The North Country will see an increase
in clouds and potential for rain some time late Monday into
Tuesday. Potential for rain showers will be reinforced,
especially on Tuesday at the mid-upper level trough digs
southward into the Mississippi valley. At the surface, ECMWF and
GFS show closed low pressure system develop and move over SE
Ontario/NW NY by late Tuesday. Increased pressure gradient at
the surface should lead to fairly gusty winds with the potential
for 15-25 mph with gust to 35mph Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions expected to persist as low
level southwesterly jet of 20-35kts developing overnight due to
increasing pressure gradient with surface high pressure settled
over the mid-Atlantic states and approaching strong Canadian low
entering Hudsons Bay increases the pressure gradient. Jet
should hinder any fog development under clear skies into
Thursday morning, but also produce some LLWS (23035kt at 020)
overnight at KMSS and KSLK. There`s a chance some intermittent
fog may develop at KSLK before the jet develops...mainly btwn
02Z-04Z as T-Td spread is very narrow to start the night.

Winds will mix to the ground throughout the daytime with S-SW
sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts 20-35kts expected. Can`t
rule out funneling up the St Lawrence to have isolated higher
gusts.

A cold front associated with the low will bring some high to
mid level clouds toward 18z with a wind shift to west northwest
toward 00Z Fri.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday - Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase overnight reaching 15 to 25 kts by
dawn Thursday as a moderately strong pressure gradient develops.
Relatively mild water temps in the upper 50s may mix winds of
30 knots just above the surface early Thursday morning, so could
be a bit higher than 25 knot for a few hours from sunrise to
noon. Winds should slowly diminish late in the afternoon and
then shift to the west northwest 10 to 15 knots Thursday night.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance through tonight (10/18) and tomorrow
(10/19) as technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Taber/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...BTV



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