Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1022 AM EDT FRIDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT OBS
TRENDS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY FROM MORNING
LOWS...PUSHING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH A LITTLE LAG ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TO OUR WEST...TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MORE TOWARDS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...BUT BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK THEN AFT 05Z KBTV/KPBG/KMPV/KRUT.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT AND 12Z BTV. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK
AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT
VSBY TOO MUCH EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR VSBY IN -SHSN AT KSLK 8-12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....ANY -SHRA/SHRA ENDING THEN BECOMING
VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH G20-25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.