Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 162335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS
S TX...HOWEVER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
AM EXPECTING REDVLPMNT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WITH
INCREASING ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
AROUND RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THEN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX THEN LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO
LATE WED MORNING...BUT AT TIMES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR DUE
TO CONVECTION THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
FROM THE S TO SE BUT VRB AND GUSTY AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE GFS PROG THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION TNGT THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SWD WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX.
LATEST MSAS DEPICTS THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL
CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
OWING TO SFC FORCING/MSTR/LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC.) EXPECT
LINGERING MSTR WEDNESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS) TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (THE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO PROVIDE LIMITED FORCING)...THEN MAINLY OVER
THE CNTRL/WRN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WED AROUND 100F OR LESS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH
LOOK TO BE RATHER WET DAYS WITH DEEP MOISTURE (~2.2 PW VALUES) OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SIMILARLY BE IN PLACE FRIDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO H250 DIFLUENCE. THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD ALSO SEE A
NUMBER OF WEAK H500 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN H500 RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE H500 RIDGE WILL HAVE
MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS DECREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE WILL PW
STILL ~2 IN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER
OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL EVEN MAKE INTO THE REGION OR WHETHER OR NOT A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE
BIGGEST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CMC DGEX AND
GFS ALL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH...WITH CMC SUGGESTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DGEX MONDAY MORNING...AND GFS STALLING IT OUT OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SPLIT THE EXTREMES AND GONE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FROM DAY 6 ONWARD. HAVE GONE WITH 30% POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  78  90  76  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          75  89  75  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            77  93  78  93  78  /  50  50  30  30  20
ALICE             76  91  76  91  75  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          78  87  79  89  79  /  40  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           75  91  75  91  75  /  50  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  91  77  91  76  /  40  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  80  90  80  /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




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