Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 131552 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...FOG IS HANGING TOUGH...BUT VISIBILITIES OVERALL ARE
IMPROVING. KVCT IS STILL 1/4SM BUT THAT SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY.
WEB CAMS SHOW FOG IMPROVING OVER PORTIONS OF VICTORIA AREA.
THUS...WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE WITH A SHORT-TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...REMOVED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. KEPT ADVISORY FOR THE
VICTORIA AREA WHERE DENSE FOG WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO LIFT. FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.
UPDATES ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI AND VCT TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES. LRD MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. CRP LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR VFR AS FOG
HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS...THING MOST SITES WILL PRIMARILY SEE LOW CIGS OVER VIS
REDUCTIONS...BUT VCT/ALI MAY ALSO SEE VIS REDUCTIONS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...OVER A NEARLY IDENTICAL AREA TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS FOG POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY THOUGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING
ONCE AGAIN...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO DISCERN THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS STALLED WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING..BUT BEST
ESTIMATE HAS IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...IT WOULD HAVE
NO REAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS. THINK IT WILL STAY MOSTLY
NORTH THOUGH. EXPECT A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLJ
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH HIGHER RH LEVELS WOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. TEMPS OUT WEST COULD
GET QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST...UPPER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RIDGING WILL STILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER BRIEF SHOT OF
TROUGH MONDAY AND WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH.

MONDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
COME CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST BOARDER ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH BETTER HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER-80S AREAWIDE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-
WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  58  78  58  82  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  55  76  56  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            81  57  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             78  55  82  56  85  /   0  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  61  74  63  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           80  53  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        78  55  81  58  80  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  61  74  63  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM


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