Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 280000 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
700 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to
move inland between Alice and Pleasanton over the next couple of
hours before diminishing. Went with persistence with regards to
timing of possible MVFR ceilings occurring at CRP/ALI around
04-08Z time period...VCT from 06-10Z...and LRD from 10-14Z. The
MVFR ceilings may be prevalent at LRD for morning period Thursday.
Isolated showers will be possible for the coastal plains in the
morning with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon. MVFR ceilings/vsbys could occur with stronger storms.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...

Still enough moisture around Thursday for some low chance POPs,
mainly over the eastern areas as pwats are AOA 2 inches, cap is
weaker and some surface forcing. Also, still a bit of a
weakness/hint at a weak upper level trough, so will continue with
low chance POPs east and slight chance POPs west. Expecting rain
to end by mid evening out west, then a few showers possible after
midnight over the gulf waters with some possibly moving inland
before dissipating. Even less activity Thursday night as slightly
drier air moves in, and surface winds are a bit weaker. Concerning
temperatures, generally went with a blend of consensus and bias
consensus MOS values.

MARINE  (Tonight through Thursday night)...

Moderate onshore flow over the gulf waters...with SCEC over most
areas. Over the bays, weak to moderate onshore flow. Onshore flow
will be more weak to moderate after that. Showers and possible
thunderstorms mainly after midnight, then less activity in the
afternoon and Thursday night with slightly drier air in place and
weaker winds.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Upper level high pressure will gradually begin building in from the
northwest late in the week.  Moisture will linger across the region
through the weekend before drier air pushes into the region and high
pressure builds further over the area.  Friday and over the weekend
lingering moisture will allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms
each day across the coastal areas, moving inland during the
afternoon.  Kept mentionable PoPs out of the forecast by early next
week.  H85 temperatures return to +23C degrees across the Rio Grande
Plains and temperatures will gradually warm over the weekend and
remain fairly persistent through early next week. Expect afternoon
highs to reach in the 100F-102F range across the Rio Grande Plains
and Brush Country, and in the mid to upper 90s further east. Special
weather statements for heat index values of 105F to 109F degrees
will likely be needed across portions of the region each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  95  78  94  78  /  10  30  10  20  10
Victoria          77  94  76  95  77  /  20  30  10  20  10
Laredo            79 100  78  99  79  /  20  20  10  10  10
Alice             76  98  75  98  76  /  10  30  10  20  10
Rockport          82  92  82  90  80  /  20  30  10  20  10
Cotulla           76  98  76  99  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
Kingsville        79  97  76  97  77  /  10  30  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       81  91  81  91  80  /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



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