Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 271059
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
459 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS S TX. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT N-NE FLOW. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE E BY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MVS EAST. THE ONSHORE WIND WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S TX TONIGHT...LEADING TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBY`S...MAINLY INLAND
LOCATIONS INCLUDING ALI...LRD AND VCT. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON FRI WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVG INTO S
TX THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL/MILD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST RESULTING IN WINDS VEERING TO THE E
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALOFT
WITH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUING TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. WITH
INCREASING NEAR SFC MOISTURE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY DEWPOINTS INCREASE WILL
DETERMINE IF DENSE FOG WILL FORM OR NOT. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MID MORNING FRI WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE GFS/ECWMF/NAM ALL SHOW LIGHT QPF
VALUES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OR ALONG THE COAST ON FRI IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ALONG THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR FRI.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A TROUG OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE COASTAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 1 INCH. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FOR
SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SAG THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. COULD STILL SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD DUE TO HANDLING OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SENDS A REINFORCING
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOWN INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ONLY SHOWING A WEAK FRONT THAT DOES
NOT MAKE THE RED RIVER. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  54  76  60  78  /   0  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          69  45  74  57  77  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  53  77  56  81  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             73  51  77  56  79  /   0  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          69  60  71  63  76  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           70  47  75  52  80  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        72  53  77  58  79  /   0  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  59  73  63  77  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




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