Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 280504
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1204 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS S TX THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY TUE MORNING
WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...EVERYTHING LOOKS FINE FOR NOW...AND NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY STAY UP A BIT MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED IF WINDS DO NOT COME DOWN...BUT AM EXPECTING A
DECREASE IN WINDS AND WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE (ACCORDING TO CRP
SUONDING)...WE SHOULD SEE ABOUT THE SAME TEMPERATURES (OR A
DEGREE LOWER) AS THIS MORNING WHICH IS GENERALLY BEING FORECAST.
GFE FORECAST MONITOR NEARLY ALL GREEN...SO DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MARINE FORECAST IS FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH GUSTY MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. BRIEF MVFR CLOUD DECK AND REDUCED VSBYS FROM
PATCHY BR WILL IMPACT ALI/CRP/VCT AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RELAX
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN DURING LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CENTER OF THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS TO SLIDE WEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DESPITE THIS...THE LACK OF A SATURATED
PROFILE AND THE COMBINATION OF WARM H85 TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HOLD BACK THE MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH NEAR 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST AND RIO GRANDE.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...TO 100F-105F OUT
WEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN BE A FACTOR TUESDAY...KEEPING
BETWEEN 105F-109F AREA WIDE...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
AT 110. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS...PEAKING MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST IS
DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL SUMMER RIDGE...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INITIAL PART OF THE EXTENDED IS A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES VARYING LITTLE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...THE RIDGE DRIFTS WESTWARD SLIGHTLY IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BEFORE STALLING OUT. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING
WESTWARD...ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE MAY BUILD TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COASTAL BEND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH THIS MAY TRIM
A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS...THOUGH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE.

BY SUNDAY THE FRONT WEAKENS AND LIFTS SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS BACK TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL END RAIN CHANCES AND RETURN
US TO THE TYPICAL AUGUST HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  96  77  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  96  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 104  79 104  78  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             76  99  76 100  76  /   0  10   0  10   0
ROCKPORT          80  91  81  92  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  76 103  76  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        78  99  77  98  76  /   0  10   0  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  81  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


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