National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KCRP 212347
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING WEST OF
U.S. ROUTE 281 AND OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT (AT LEAST TILL AROUND 09Z WED) OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BRIEF MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 10-14Z WED PERIOD. A TRANSITION
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SE/E WEAK SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SE
FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...VORT MAX LOBE WILL
ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO
SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 00Z. WEAKENING IN THE CAP IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...YET REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH UPPER
SUPPORT IN A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED 70KT JET...AM EXPECTING
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO REACH WESTERN AREAS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
STRONGEST OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE CAP WEAKENS
FARTHER EAST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO MAKE IT
TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO HEATING MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM YET BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH PERSISTENT WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS THAT DEVELOPS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MEXICO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW GIVEN UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH CAP WILL ERODE EACH AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP
ZFP/GRIDS DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT LEAVE A SILENT 10 POP OUT WEST.
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS...BUT STILL WARM AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  75  92  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  89  73  90  74  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  97  76  98  75  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  93  73  93  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  80  75  86  75  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           73  96  73  98  74  /  30  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  91  74  92  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  75  84  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION