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000
FXUS64 KCRP 221456
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
956 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR A PORT
LAVACA TO MATHIS TO ENCINAL LINE...AND WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE
DIFFUSE THROUGH THE DAY. STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH
MIDDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS FOR TODAY AS WELL AS TO
RE-ESTABLISH TRENDS ON WINDS/DEW POINT/RH. HAZE/SMOKE TO PERSIST
ACROSS COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF A PORT LAVACA TO
LAREDO LINE AT 11Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED. MVFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY EXCEPT AROUND COT WHERE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN AND CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE 3 KFT. EXPECT
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z THEN MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT OF THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS/LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
BY 02Z-03Z...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 08Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR A PORT LAVACA TO ENCINAL
LINE AT 09Z. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SHALLOW FRONT...ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS...PROVIDES
LIFT OVER THIS AREA TO OVER CAP. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
DIFFUSE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF HAZE/SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...MODELS
PROG A SHORT WAVE TO ROUND THE TOP PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
DRAW MOISTURE N...MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA...BUT MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TOO LIMITED AND A MARGINAL CAP IS PROGD TO BE IN PLACE SO WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIP JUST YET FOR FRI. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT DO HAVE 10 POPS STRETCHING TO THE NE CWA FRI EVENING AS
THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS S TX
SUNDAY/MON AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW...LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WHICH WAS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCSTD...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  72  90  74  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            97  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             92  73  94  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  76  88  75  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           96  73  97  74  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  92  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  76  85  75  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JR/76...SHORT TERM