Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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667
FXUS64 KCRP 252121
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
421 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday)...

An upper level trough positioned over the central plains will
continue trekking eastward as a cut off low retrogrades over
northern Mexico and the Baja Peninsula overnight and Monday. A
cold front draped across central Texas will slowly progress
southward into the region Monday. There will be a lull in
convection over the Coastal Bend and portions of the Coastal
Plains this afternoon and early evening, but expect redevelopment
of convection overnight. As the boundary pushes further south
anticipate numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop, with the
best chances across the Rio Grande Plains early in the period,
spreading in coverage late tonight into tomorrow. Higher pwat
values over 2 inches will be spread across the region. Deep
Pacific moisture is being ushered into the region with the cut off
low over northern Mexico, and more low level moisture from the
Gulf is also being brought onshore with moderate onshore flow
today. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible at
times will some of these storms, but with storm motion moving at
current rates, widespread flooding is not expected at this time.

Surface winds ahead the frontal boundary will become easterly
overnight, gradually becoming northeasterly through the
afternoon. Tonight temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than
the past couple of days. Highs tomorrow will be somewhat dependent
on coverage of rain and timing of the cold front moving into the
region. Currently anticipate highs in the low to mid 80s inland,
and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and southern Coastal
Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...

Models prog the upper cut off low to continue retrograding
westward across Baja CA while the main upper low continues to
swing eastward across the plains, with mid/ upper level high
pressure in between across S TX. This will lead to sfc high
pressure continuing to build across S TX through Monday night and
Tue. As a result, sfc winds restrengthen Monday night to moderate
levels, mainly across the waters. Models also hint at weak re-
enforcing high pressure once again Thu, resulting in a slight
increase in sfc winds briefly Thu. A gradual drying will take
place with pops decreasing from N to S through Tue. The GFS shows
precip continuing along the southern coastal waters through Wed as
an upper level short wave tracks south around the eastern
periphery of the ridge. Therefore, kept a slight chc across the
southern coastal waters through Wed/Wed night, then remove the
mention of precip completely by Thu. Expected to remain dry into
the weekend then re-introduce pops across the waters next Sun.
Temps will be cooler Tue due to the combination of weak to mod CAA
and clouds/rain, then a gradual warming through the latter part of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  88  72  85  71  /  50  70  50  40  20
Victoria          72  85  68  84  67  /  60  60  40  30  10
Laredo            75  87  68  79  68  /  60  60  60  30  10
Alice             74  88  71  85  69  /  50  60  50  30  10
Rockport          77  88  73  83  73  /  50  60  50  40  20
Cotulla           73  81  67  81  67  /  60  60  50  30  10
Kingsville        75  88  71  85  70  /  50  70  50  40  20
Navy Corpus       78  87  75  84  75  /  50  70  50  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM



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