Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 240529
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING ALI TAF SITE AT
ISSUANCE TIME...AND WILL REACH CRP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR VCT SITE AS
WELL. EXPECT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THOUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
WITH GRADIENT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN WEB COUNTY
AND SOUTHWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BOWING OUT WITH
STRONG WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
JIM WELLS COUNTY EASTWARD...AND NORTH TO REFUGIO AND ARANSAS
COUNTIES. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN ONE OF THESE WATCHES
ARE VICTORIA AND CALHOUN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF S TX IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT.
CONVECTION OVER MEX AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH A SECONDARY THREAT POSSIBLY BEING HAIL BUT IS LESS
LIKELY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. ALSO SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVG ACROSS S TX FROM MEX. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TIMING OF BEST CHC FOR STRONGEST STORMS FOLLOWED WITH VCSH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND NO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UNLESS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...VFR
THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  76  85  77  86  /  70  60  60  50  40
VICTORIA          82  73  83  73  85  /  80  60  60  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  91  /  30  30  40  40  30
ALICE             86  74  87  76  88  /  60  50  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          83  77  83  77  84  /  80  60  60  60  40
COTULLA           88  72  87  72  88  /  40  30  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  86  77  88  /  60  50  60  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  84  /  70  60  60  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION


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