Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 191148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH/EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 181. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND SPEED. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FURTHER...MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16
DRG THE 09-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




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