Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 291157
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
KNQI AROUND 1/2 MILE...WITH KCRP ONLY HAVING MIFR. COULD HAVE FOG
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT WANT TO CANCEL EARLY.

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO VFR BY
1630Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCRP AND KLRD.
COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR BR AT KCRP AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING
CAUSES SOME FOG TO FORM AS DEW EVAPORATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAINLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS (HIGHER EARLY IN KCRP). FRONT DOES NOT
COME DOWN INTO TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 30/06Z...SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KALI AND KVCT (AND MVFR AT KCRP)
BEFORE FROPA. FROPA FORECAST IS AOA 07Z AT KVCT...08Z AT KLRD...AND
ABT 09Z/10Z AT KALI AND KCRP. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST ISSUE IS THE FOG THIS
MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT (FOR THE LATTER ISSUE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT). FIRST THE FOG. AM EXPECTING
THE DENSE FOG MAINLY TO IMPACT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. WILL SEE
WHAT TRANSPIRES BY SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO GENERATE FOG...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE IN SOME AREAS (SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING). THUS...WENT WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WITH EVEN MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
(ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM THE COAST). FRONT COMES DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH IT AS IT WILL NOT BE A
STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER (WITH WINDS UP) THAN
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER OVER AREA. FINALLY...CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE NOR IS THE SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM THE 20
POPS TO JUST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WHERE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST (AND STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE).
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND
WINDS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE GONE
BY 10 AM. DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...
EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TODAY BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES DOWN. STILL...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION (SCEC). NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL  EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS
ALSO PROG INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRI NIGHT THEN
SPREADING E SAT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E...BUT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM W TO E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH S TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG THE PRECIP
TO SHIFT S AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS FAR W OF TX AND TRACKS FARTHER S ACROSS THE BAJA WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX...BRINGING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS TO THE
AREA. BY TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TX WHICH IN TURNS
SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH E OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING.
THIS WILL USHER THE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS BACK ACROSS S TX. AS
FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SUN...LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS ON MON. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS...MN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  55  64  55  70  /   0  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          77  50  61  48  64  /   0  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            80  56  64  56  71  /   0  10  20  40  40
ALICE             80  53  64  53  71  /   0  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          73  53  62  53  67  /   0  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           80  51  61  51  66  /   0  10  10  50  50
KINGSVILLE        79  54  65  54  72  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  56  63  57  69  /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





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