Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 301750
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMIATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. PATCHY FOG...WITH MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES...ANTICIPATED DRG THE 09-14Z MONDAY PERIOD GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND/COASTAL WATERS. GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN LGT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYSES AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT. MSTR REMAINS
THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...YET GOES SOUNDER DPI PWAT OUTPUT
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN MSTR FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH. WL ISSUE
20 POPS FOR THE SERN CWA/SRN MSA WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS
ELSEWHERE. WL CONFINE THUNDER TO THE SRN CWA OWING TO RECENT CAPE
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  92  76  92  77  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          70  92  74  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            75  99  77  97  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             71  96  74  95  75  /  10  20  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          77  91  78  90  80  /  10  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           73  97  74  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  95  75  96  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  90  80  89  80  /  10  20  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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