Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 271117
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
617 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAF`s.

&&

.AVIATION...

Cigs are expected to be at VFR levels most of the time with brief
periods of MVFR conditions due to sct/num showers/thunderstorms.
The best chc of convection will be across the eastern portions of
S TX, especially this morning, then shifting farther west through
this afternoon. Convection is expected to diminish this evening
before redeveloping once again late tonight. Drier mid/upper
levels by late tonight will lead to less activity, but still
expecting isol/sct convection along the coast overnight tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Abundant deep moisture with PWATs around 2 inches will remain in
place across the region today. The moisture combined with a baggy
trough aloft, moderate CAPE, and fairly strong low level convergence
along the coast where a coastal trough resides, will produce sct to
num SHRA/TSRA`s. The best chances will be across the eastern half of
the CWA. The convection is expected to wane this evening before
redeveloping across the waters and along the coast once again late
tonight/early Wed morning. Am expecting rain chcs to be a tad lower
on Wed as the upper trough shifts S and E of the region with some
drying in the mid/upper levels and PWATs decreasing to between 1.5
and 1.7 inches. Max temps Wed will also be a tad higher as a result.
Winds will generally be east to northeast this morning becoming more
easterly this afternoon, while over the coastal waters, winds will
remain generally southeast. The weak to moderate onshore flow over
the coastal waters is expected to become more moderate tonight.

Tide levels continue to run slightly elevated, but are expected to
remain below 2 FT MSL through the next high tide. Levels are
expected to be around 1.5-1.7 FT abv MSL at the time of the next
high tide.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...

The mid level shear axis will remain along the coast from Wednesday
night through Friday with the deeper moisture being over the Gulf
waters. Will continue with high chance PoPs over the Gulf waters to
the Mid-Coast region Wednesday night into Thursday with PoPs tapered
to slight chance along Highway 281. The shear axis weakens by Friday
and moisture slowly decreases but will continue low end chance PoPs
over the Gulf waters to the Mid-Coast region for Thursday night into
Friday. Low level flow will increase by Thursday as low pressure
forms over West Texas. SCEC to low end SCA conditions are expected
Thursday night through Saturday. Drier air moves into the area by
Saturday as the mid level ridge axis over the Gulf of Mexico builds
to the west into the area. Heat index values will be back to the
range of 105-109 degrees for Friday through the weekend into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  76  90  76  93  /  60  30  40  30  30
Victoria          89  74  90  75  92  /  60  30  40  30  50
Laredo            92  75  96  77 100  /  50  20  10  10  10
Alice             90  74  93  75  97  /  60  20  40  20  20
Rockport          87  79  87  80  91  /  60  30  50  40  40
Cotulla           92  73  95  75  99  /  50  20  20  10  10
Kingsville        90  75  91  75  95  /  60  20  40  20  30
Navy Corpus       87  79  90  81  91  /  60  30  40  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



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