Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192104
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
304 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS WILL HELP FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AND MOSTLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A SURGE OF MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY INCREASE CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
AND REDUCED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...
CONSIDERABLE SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA AS A RESULT OF
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HEAVY RAIN. THIS MOISTURE MAY HELP FUEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. A STABLE LAYER AT THE MID LEVELS IS HELPING SUPPRESS
STORMS ACTIVITY FOR NOW BUT ADDITIONAL HEATING MAY ALLOW A FEW
STORMS TO FORM LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAINFALL COVERAGE
WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY. THE RESIDUAL
SURFACE MOISTURE MAY ALSO HELP DEVELOP PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE STATE
ON SATURDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING UNDERNEATH
THE HIGH. THE HIGH IS BEGIN SQUEEZED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
THE WEST COAST...TROPICAL SYSTEM POLO TO THE SOUTH AND A LARGE
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. IN ADDITION...A
DISTURBANCE THAT USED TO BE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAY TIME
HEATING TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND INCREASES AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL BE MAINLY FOR
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION HAS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEST
COAST LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME DRYING AT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA DUE TO A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING

RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL DECREASE AS
AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED OVER THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z - 21/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN040-050 THRU PD. ISOLD 1-3SM +TSRA BKN020-030 THRU 04Z
AND AGAIN AFT 18Z. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 8KTS. PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS
AOB 1SM AND LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE 09Z-14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE COMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT INCREASE ON BACK
SIDE OF FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  87  68  87  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           64  81  63  81  62 /  30  20  30  40  30
LAS CRUCES              65  84  65  84  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              64  87  64  87  64 /  30  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              48  67  47  63  46 /  40  40  40  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  84  64  84  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
SILVER CITY             61  80  61  81  60 /  30  30  30  30  30
DEMING                  63  85  64  85  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LORDSBURG               64  86  64  85  64 /  20  30  20  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      68  86  69  86  66 /  20  20  20  30  30
DELL CITY               64  87  64  87  63 /  40  20  30  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            68  89  68  89  65 /  20  20  30  30  30
LOMA LINDA              65  79  64  79  60 /  20  20  20  30  30
FABENS                  66  89  65  89  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            66  85  66  85  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  82  65  84  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           62  84  61  84  60 /  20  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   63  83  62  83  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
COLUMBUS                64  84  64  84  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
OROGRANDE               66  84  66  84  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 55  74  53  72  52 /  50  30  50  50  40
MESCALERO               56  75  54  73  54 /  40  30  40  50  40
TIMBERON                54  73  52  71  52 /  40  30  40  50  40
WINSTON                 57  75  55  75  54 /  30  30  30  40  40
HILLSBORO               61  79  60  79  59 /  20  20  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               63  83  62  83  61 /  20  20  20  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            57  81  55  81  55 /  30  30  30  40  40
HURLEY                  62  82  61  81  61 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   57  83  57  83  57 /  20  30  30  40  30
MULE CREEK              53  81  52  81  52 /  30  30  30  40  30
FAYWOOD                 62  81  61  81  60 /  30  20  30  30  30
ANIMAS                  64  85  64  85  63 /  30  30  30  30  30
HACHITA                 62  86  62  86  61 /  20  20  20  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  86  61  86  60 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              61  83  59  83  60 /  30  30  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ





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