Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 010945
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
345 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Much drier air moves in today to remove nearly all rain and storm
chances across the Borderland through the weekend. Weekend
temperatures will warm back above normal and afternoons will be
mildly breezy. Monday the next storm system approaches and brings
back isolated storm chances and increased winds. Monday and
Tuesday look a bit windy as the storm passes. Dry air returns
Tuesday and the rest of the week looks dry and somewhat cooler
with lighter winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Still a good amount of moisture over the region overnight with
last evening`s PW`s still over an inch and overnight SFC dewpoint
temps in the U50s-N60. Thus we could see a slight risk of early
morning fog across the region this morning. However that moisture
is quite shallow...and rapidly vacating the region so any fog
will be short-lived. Increasing westerly flow over the region
today will quickly shove the moisture plume east today and we
will see dry air overtake the region. Ridging aloft builds for
the weekend to help the area warm back above seasonal normals.
Pleasant weather expected for both Saturday and Sunday with dry
and seasonal conditions. There remains a very slight potential for
a few storms today. Those areas are the area mountains (Gila
region and Sacs), and far eastern lowlands of Hudspeth and Otero
counties. Otherwise a dry day today and Sunday.

Monday the next Pacific storm system approaches. As it swings into
the southern Great Basin winds turn back southerly and redirect
mid-level subtropical moisture back over the area. This slug of
moisture appears quite limited with upper and surface layers
remaining generally dry. However there are moderate dynamics
moving in with slightly increasing instability. The window of
opportunity is short...but Monday will have POPs and mentions of
showers and thunderstorms. The vertical profile shows good speed
sheer aloft allowing a slight risk of strong to severe storms
possible. By Tuesday the system passes to our north and winds turn
back westerly. This shoves the moisture out and imports dry air
back in to end rain/storm chances. Both days look breezy to windy.

Cooler weather follows a Pacific front that passes Tuesday. Very
dry, typical fall air moves in and provides dry weather
conditions for the rest of the work week as broad high pressure
aloft builds and lingers over the region.

To finish this cycle we look at Friday when there is some
potential in the models for a return of moisture to bring some
precipitation chances back into the region late Fri into Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 01/12Z-02/12Z...
Moisture will rapidly vacate the region throughout the day as
westerly flow moves back over the area and shoves moisture east.
As a result very few, if any storms are expected to develop
today/tonight. VFR conditions for all TAF locations. Possible
brief AM fog this morning. Tempo 12-16z 1/2-3sm in BR/FG. Skies
SKC-SCT140. Winds 260-280 10-15kts G20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weekend weather looks dry with mild afternoon breezy
conditions and temperatures climbing about 5 degrees above early
October normals. A deep trough will move into the Four Corners on
Monday with a Pacific cold front pushing across the area in the
afternoon. Meager moisture will move back over and could result
in isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms Monday. A strong
pressure gradient will result in breezy SW winds for both Monday
and Tuesday, but RH values will in the 25 to 30 percent range in
the lowlands (higher in the mountains), so critical fire weather
conditions are not anticipated. Tuesday through Friday of next
week the region dries out significantly. Temperatures will be
seasonal with lighter winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 86  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           83  58  86  60 /  20   0   0   0
Las Cruces              84  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              85  57  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              68  41  68  46 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   83  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             77  52  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                  85  54  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               83  53  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      85  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               86  57  88  58 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            87  60  89  63 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              79  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  86  59  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            85  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          84  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           84  53  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   84  56  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                85  56  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               84  59  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 76  48  76  51 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               76  47  77  51 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                74  46  74  49 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                 78  48  79  50 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               81  53  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               83  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            80  48  80  51 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                  80  51  81  54 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                   83  49  83  53 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek              79  47  80  50 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                 81  53  83  55 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                  84  53  86  57 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                 84  52  86  56 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          82  54  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale              78  54  81  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird


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