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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 291958
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
158 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH A LITTLE DRYING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY SHOULD BE WELL
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT COOL INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AS
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD COMING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER STORM MOVEMENT AND LESS BACK-BUILDING THAN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NW NM AND
SHOULD BRING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVENING AND SPREADING INTO EASTERN ZONES. MAY SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BUT SHOULD NOT BE A BIG THREAT TO CWA
EXCEPT IF IT OCCURS OVER THE SACS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED 1.5-3 INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WED LOOKS LIKE A DOWN DAY AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO SHIFT TO THE NW AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR.
PW`S WED WILL DROP DOWN TO AN INCH OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH ONLY THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER GILA REGION. JUST WENT
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY.

A BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NE WED NIGHT WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS AREA BY LATE THU. NOT MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT DID KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT POPS FOR
NERN HALF OF CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREADING POPS WEST DURING THE
DAY THU. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP NEAR CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THU AND WITH STORM MOTION TO SE HAVE HIGHEST POPS EAST WITH
30-40S IN THE LOWLANDS AND LIKELY POPS IN THE MTS. SIMILAR SETUP
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PW`S AT OR ABOVE AN
INCH WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 1.25-1.5" RANGE. WEAK DISTURBANCES
AROUND THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE IN THE WRN NM AREA THROUGH SAT AND
START TO SHIFT E ON SUN WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW EACH DAY
AND AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES VERY LIKELY. BY NEXT
MON...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2-5 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FRI-SUN OR LATER.  LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES
STARTING SAT AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
WARMING INTO THE 90S. GENERALLY WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...BUT THIS COULD STILL BE OPTIMISTIC ANY DAY DEPENDING ON
LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z.
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT
GENERALLY P6SM FEW-SCT060-100 SCT-BKN120-150 BKN200-250. AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WILL HAVE 1/2-2 SM TSRA CIGS BKN040-080.
WIND G50KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA WILL DRIFT
WEST INTO NORTHERN SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THE RESULTING WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
TOMORROW WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WITH SCATTERED STORMS IN THE GILA AND THE SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEP IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITY TOMORROW 20 TO 30 PERCENT
LOWLANDS AND AROUND 10 POINTS HIGHER IN THE MTNS. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE AT ALL LOCATIONS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HAINES INDICES VERY LOW TO LOW (3 OR 4) TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  98  78  96  71 /  30  20  20  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           74  95  73  89  71 /  30  10  20  40  30
LAS CRUCES              71  96  72  95  68 /  30  20  20  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              70  95  71  92  69 /  30  20  40  60  40
CLOUDCROFT              52  71  51  71  50 /  40  20  50  80  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  96  71  92  67 /  30  20  20  40  40
SILVER CITY             62  89  63  87  63 /  30  20  30  60  40
DEMING                  71  96  72  96  68 /  30  20  10  30  40
LORDSBURG               69  97  70  96  67 /  20  20  10  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  98  77  95  72 /  30  20  20  40  40
DELL CITY               70  99  69  92  67 /  30  20  30  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            74 100  73  93  70 /  30  10  20  40  30
LOMA LINDA              66  93  65  91  65 /  30  20  20  40  40
FABENS                  74  99  75  97  71 /  30  20  20  40  40
SANTA TERESA            73  97  74  96  70 /  30  20  20  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  97  74  94  70 /  30  20  20  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           67  97  68  93  66 /  30  20  20  40  40
HATCH                   69  99  70  95  66 /  30  20  20  40  40
COLUMBUS                71  97  72  94  68 /  20  20  10  30  40
OROGRANDE               71  98  72  94  68 /  30  20  40  50  40
MAYHILL                 60  82  59  78  56 /  40  20  50  80  50
MESCALERO               57  82  56  76  57 /  40  20  50  80  50
TIMBERON                56  79  55  78  53 /  40  20  50  70  50
WINSTON                 63  87  64  85  60 /  40  20  30  70  40
HILLSBORO               67  91  68  91  66 /  30  20  20  30  40
SPACEPORT               69  97  70  91  67 /  30  20  20  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            56  87  57  88  54 /  40  20  30  70  40
HURLEY                  63  91  64  90  63 /  30  20  20  50  40
CLIFF                   62  90  63  92  58 /  30  20  20  50  30
MULE CREEK              58  90  59  91  55 /  30  20  20  40  30
FAYWOOD                 64  91  65  91  63 /  30  20  20  40  40
ANIMAS                  72  96  73  95  69 /  20  20  10  30  30
HACHITA                 69  96  70  94  66 /  20  20  10  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  96  72  92  69 /  20  20  10  30  30
CLOVERDALE              64  91  65  90  61 /  20  20  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/21





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