Area Forecast Discussion
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895
FXUS64 KEPZ 300941
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW CAUSING COOLER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PRODUCE WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES. FOR TODAY AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW WITHIN THE
LONGER WAVE TROUGH MEAN WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ARIZONA
INDUCING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
THUS EXPECT WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA WITH BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT ADVECTING COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA WHICH WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST OF THEW CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
POSSIBLY CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-01/12Z.
VERY ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS NORTH OF LAS CRUCES ROM 20Z
TO 06Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS BETWEEN
8,000 AND 12,000 FEET AGL. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER OVER THE
GILA WILDERNESS. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW CAUSING COOLER BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  55  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           77  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
LAS CRUCES              76  50  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              75  51  64  44 /   0   0  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              53  37  48  33 /   0  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  50  68  44 /   0   0  20  10
SILVER CITY             70  43  64  41 /  10   0  20  20
DEMING                  78  48  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  55  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               78  48  63  44 /   0   0  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            81  52  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              74  52  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  80  52  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            78  51  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          76  53  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           75  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   77  48  72  42 /   0   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                79  48  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               76  54  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
MAYHILL                 62  40  50  35 /   0  10  20  20
MESCALERO               63  40  54  35 /   0  10  20  20
TIMBERON                62  41  56  37 /   0   0  20  20
WINSTON                 67  40  61  34 /  10   0  20  20
HILLSBORO               73  47  66  41 /   0   0  20  20
SPACEPORT               75  49  69  42 /   0   0  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            68  38  63  35 /  10  10  20  20
HURLEY                  72  43  65  41 /   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   76  42  68  38 /  10  10  20  20
MULE CREEK              74  40  66  36 /   0  10  20  20
FAYWOOD                 73  44  66  41 /   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  81  47  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 80  46  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          79  45  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              76  45  67  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH



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