Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231044
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
344 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest flow aloft ahead of an incoming Pacific storm will bring
a nice warm day to the Borderland, though winds will become breezy
in the afternoon. High temperatures will warm to around 5 to 8
degrees above normal. The storm will then push in tonight into the
first half of Tuesday, with isolated lowland showers and scattered
mountain snow showers. Winds will also increase this afternoon and
these winds will last through much of Tuesday. Gusts of 40 to 50
mph are possible along east slopes of terrain overnight. Mountain
snow showers could produce 2 to 4 inches of snow through Tuesday
afternoon before ending. The rest of the week from Wednesday on,
looks to remain dry. However the with upper flow maintaining a
northwest direction, temperatures Wednesday through Sunday will
remain below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large upper trough with attendant cold front well on shore of the
west coast and continuing moving to the area. But first we will
see a pretty nice day. Short wave ridge has moved over us and now
is to our east as warm southwest flow aloft develops ahead of the
storm. Temperatures today will be around 10 degrees warmer than
Sunday, putting us around 5-7 degrees above normal. Thought some
patchy morning fog might be possible but no sign of any
development on satellite imagery, and dewpoint depressions still
too large. However, grids still have mention of morning fog west
of the Franklin and Organ Mountains (may remove this at last
minute).

Aforementioned upper trough/cold front on schedule to reach the
area this evening into Tuesday morning. Looks like this system is
the little brother to the weekend`s winter system. Similar weather
features, but not near as strong, with MUCH LESS IMPACTS. A few
showers could begin over the Gila late this afternoon. Otherwise
the best action will be tonight into Tuesday. Expect windy
conditions this afternoon ahead of the front, and then better
precip chances with and behind the front as it moves through
tonight. Best chance of showers will be north and west of Las
Cruces, though grids show at least slight chance all areas except
Hudspeth County. Best dynamics begin tonight with large scale lift
associated with RRQ of 140+ kt jet. However, moisture is limited
with this system. GFS shows PW`s around .40 inches with the front,
but rapidly decreasing after. Snow production could be efficient
for the mountains, but lack of moisture and speed of movement
suggest snow amounts will remain below advisory...maybe 2-4 inches
Gila/Black Range and 1-3 inches Sacramento mountains. Snow levels
will start out around 9000 ft but then quickly lower to around
6000 ft by Tuesday morning. Some mixture of rain/snow could occur
even lower (Cliff, Gila HS) by morning. System ejects out of the
trough and east of the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with precip ending.
Surface winds will become windy, and looks like decent wind gusts
along east slopes of terrain overnight, perhaps in the 40-50 mph
range.

Upper trough finally lifts out of area Wednesday with dry
northwest flow developing as west coast ridge keeps its grip on
the area. Both GFS/ECMWF drop upper trough down over the area
Friday night and Saturday but airmass remains very dry-so little
chance of even clouds. Though dry and relatively quiet,
temperatures from Wednesday on will remain below normal.

&&

.Aviation ...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z.
VFR conditions will continue P6SM SKC-FEW250. After 21Z clouds
will be on the increase from the west as a Pacific frontal system
approaches. Expect P6SM SCT-BKN100 BKN250 with -SHRA. Above 7000
ft...CIGS AOB 020 with SHSN vsbys blo 1SM. Most shower activity
will be north and west of Las Cruces. Surface winds will increase
this afternoon to southwest 15-25 kts. Winds will continue through
the night, with local gusts of 40-45 kts possible along east
slopes of terrain aft 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper ridge will keep the region dry and somewhat mild through
late today before our next disturbance moves in from the west.
Wind speeds will be increasing across northern and western zones
this afternoon with windy conditions prevailing most areas
Tuesday. However min RH values will remain above critical
thresholds during this time span. The best chances for wetting
precip will remain north and west of Las Cruces tonight through
Tuesday afternoon, with a few inches of snow at higher
elevations. Cooler conditions will follow for the remainder of the
week. This will result in a continuation of min RH values
generally above 30 percent all areas to round out the week. Good
to very good vent rates are expected Monday with stronger
transport winds resulting in excellent vent rates Tuesday before
vent rates drop off for the later part of the week

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  46  54  33 /   0  10  10   0
Sierra Blanca           68  39  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              64  38  50  27 /   0  20  10   0
Alamogordo              62  38  51  27 /   0  20  20   0
Cloudcroft              45  27  34  14 /   0  30  30   0
Truth or Consequences   59  36  47  25 /   0  20  10   0
Silver City             54  29  39  21 /  20  70  30   0
Deming                  64  35  49  25 /   0  30  10   0
Lordsburg               63  34  49  24 /   0  50  20   0
West El Paso Metro      67  42  53  33 /   0  10  10   0
Dell City               68  38  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            72  39  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              61  38  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  69  39  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            66  39  53  30 /   0  20  10   0
White Sands HQ          65  44  52  29 /   0  10  10   0
Jornada Range           63  36  50  22 /   0  10  10   0
Hatch                   64  37  49  27 /   0  20  10   0
Columbus                67  38  52  28 /   0  20  10   0
Orogrande               65  40  52  29 /   0  10  10   0
Mayhill                 55  33  42  22 /   0  30  20   0
Mescalero               55  32  40  21 /   0  30  30   0
Timberon                53  31  41  22 /   0  30  20   0
Winston                 53  29  40  18 /  10  60  20   0
Hillsboro               58  33  44  22 /  10  40  20   0
Spaceport               61  35  48  22 /   0  10  10   0
Lake Roberts            48  26  38  10 /  20  70  30   0
Hurley                  57  32  40  22 /  20  60  20   0
Cliff                   57  33  41  17 /  20  70  20   0
Mule Creek              53  33  40  16 /  20  70  20   0
Faywood                 59  32  43  22 /  10  50  20   0
Animas                  66  36  51  26 /   0  50  20   0
Hachita                 66  35  49  25 /   0  40  20   0
Antelope Wells          67  36  51  25 /   0  40  20   0
Cloverdale              62  35  43  26 /   0  60  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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