Area Forecast Discussion
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701
FXUS64 KEPZ 282122
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
322 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The Borderland has seen a stark change in the weather pattern as
the dry west flow pattern has shifted to a moist east flow
pattern. A front pushed across the region from the east overnight
and Gulf moisture moved in; more will move in tonight. This
increased moisture will stay over the region through at least
Thursday of this week and be responsible for scattered showers
and thunderstorms each day Monday through Thursday. Westerly flow
returns late this week to flush the moisture with drier air back
in place for Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pattern shift evolved overnight with minor ridge building aloft
and a backdoor frontal boundary pushing in from the east just
after daybreak. Surface high pressure is dropping south out of the
Central Rockies into the Southern Plains. This high pressure
pattern will largely stay in place and keep winds easterly across
the region through mid-week. This east wind pattern will import
increasing moisture into the CWFA and keep in it place until
Thursday. We got our first slosh of moisture this morning, but is
was minor in it`s depth and magnitude. The air in place was so dry
that this first wave is just reversing the trend with not enough
moisture to actually even produce much of any clouds.

Dewpoints are up from the singles and teens into the 30s and 40s.
PW`s should show an increase to around 1/2" on the 00Z sounding. A
second push tonight will continue the moisture advection with sfc
dewpoints more solid in the 40s and moisture depth increasing off
the surface. This will lead to a more unstable atmosphere and
increasing potential for showers and storms Monday, to continue
through Thursday. For Monday there is NOT a lot of forcing or
dynamics aloft so most of the triggering will be orographics,
heating, and boundaries. As we move to Tuesday, and more so on
Wednesday, we do have troughing moving in from the west which will
help to direct some dynamics aloft over the region. Thus
rain/storm chances will be enhanced TUE and especially WED. Both
days show neg LI`s and CAPEs 500-1000+ J/kg. There is some
directional and some speed shear in the vertical profiles but the
magnitude is marginal, so the threat of severe storms will be
minimal. We could see some areas of heavy rain as PWs are proged
to get up over .9" and storm motions look to be in the 10-20 kt
range. Temperatures will be down a bit for the MON-THU timeframe
as moisture, clouds, showers help to cut heating and keep temps
near normal.

The first of two weak troughs will pass Thursday and begin to
bring westerly winds back over western portions of our region.
This will begin a push of the moisture back to the east. We still
expect rain/storms for areas east of the Continental Divide, and
likely the mountains area to the west. Friday a second relatively
weak trough will pass and give a more forceful push of the
moisture to the east and out of the region. Friday appears to be
the dryout day where rain and storms will be largely absent of the
region. With the drier air and westerly winds back in place for
Friday we will see a warming trend back in place with late week
and weekend temps back above normal.

Current mid-range models suggest another moisture return early
NEXT week with rain chances looking possible again next Monday.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/00Z-30/00Z...

P6SM with FEW100-SCT250. Winds E-NE between 10-15KTS. TSRA across
area mountains thru 12Z then area wide. Strong wind gusts possible
near thunderstorms.

28-Pazos

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level moisture has entered the region and will stick around
through mid week this week. Today the low level moisture will help
min RH levels increase east of the Rio Grande and could initiate a
late in the afternoon dry and gusty thunderstorm across the
Sacramentos and Gila. Late tonight a stronger moisture surge from
the S-SE will occur. This will set the stage for scattered
thunderstorms area-wide Monday through Wednesday. Wetting rains
are expected over all fire weather zones dring this period. Late
Thursday the moisture starts to erode as drier air makes its way
into SW New Mexico. As this happens areas east of the Rio will
continue to have a slight chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms but any lingering storms over the Gila and Bootheel
regions could produce dry lighting.

28-Pazos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 66  89  65  85 /   0  30  50  20
Sierra Blanca           63  85  62  81 /  10  50  40  30
Las Cruces              61  88  61  84 /   0  30  50  20
Alamogordo              56  86  60  84 /   0  30  30  30
Cloudcroft              41  62  44  62 /  10  50  50  50
Truth or Consequences   59  86  59  85 /   0  30  40  20
Silver City             53  82  54  80 /   0  40  20  30
Deming                  60  88  60  86 /   0  30  30  20
Lordsburg               61  89  60  88 /   0  30  20  20
West El Paso Metro      66  88  65  85 /   0  30  50  20
Dell City               55  88  60  84 /  10  20  40  30
Fort Hancock            65  90  65  85 /  10  30  40  30
Loma Linda              60  83  60  80 /   0  30  40  30
Fabens                  63  89  65  86 /   0  30  50  30
Santa Teresa            62  88  63  84 /   0  30  50  20
White Sands HQ          66  87  64  84 /   0  30  50  20
Jornada Range           58  88  59  84 /   0  30  40  20
Hatch                   57  89  59  85 /   0  30  40  20
Columbus                62  89  61  87 /   0  30  30  20
Orogrande               63  88  62  83 /   0  30  40  30
Mayhill                 45  71  48  70 /  10  40  50  50
Mescalero               45  73  48  71 /  10  40  50  50
Timberon                42  73  48  69 /  10  40  40  50
Winston                 41  78  47  78 /  10  50  40  40
Hillsboro               51  84  55  83 /   0  40  40  30
Spaceport               51  87  56  86 /   0  20  30  20
Lake Roberts            40  81  46  79 /   0  50  30  40
Hurley                  48  83  53  82 /   0  40  20  20
Cliff                   50  87  54  87 /   0  40  20  30
Mule Creek              55  85  56  85 /   0  50  20  30
Faywood                 52  85  55  80 /   0  40  30  20
Animas                  61  91  59  89 /   0  20  20  20
Hachita                 58  89  58  86 /   0  30  20  20
Antelope Wells          58  89  58  89 /   0  20  20  20
Cloverdale              54  88  56  85 /   0  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/28



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