Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 052229
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
329 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH A HARD FREEZE IN STORE BY MORNING...AS
DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
NEAR NORMAL LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS IN STORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEFINITIVE SPLIT JET
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH PAC JET TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SUB TROPICAL JET FLOWING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS OUTLINES A CLASSIC REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST
COAST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH MAKE UP THIS
FEATURE. VARIATIONS OF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR AT LEAST THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...WITH
THE LOW EVENTUALLY ENDING UP AS THE PRINCIPLE INFLUENCE IN
DELIVERING IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO OUR AREA.

THIS REMAINS THE CASE THIS WEEKEND...WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
STRENGTHENS AND DRAWS THE LOW OUT OF THE THE BLOCK. THE LOW WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...WHILE WEAKENING
INTO AN OPEN WAVE. MEANWHILE THE HIGH THAT HAD OCCUPIED THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BLOCK WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN AS A FULL
LATITUDE RIDGE. THIS WILL SERVE TO REORIENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT...ALLOWING A SECOND WEAK
TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH OVER NM MONDAY.


IMPACTS:

HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
REMEMBER TO PROTECT YOUR FOUR P`S. PEOPLE...PETS...PIPES AND
PLANTS. VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHTS FRONT...WILL MEAN COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. THE ABSENCE
OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING TO QUICKLY RADIATE INTO
SPACE.


ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. DRY
LIGHTNING WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE.  GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF OPEN
WAVE MENTIONED EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THIS
FEATURE WILL BE WEAK...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT
SHOULD EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AT AT THAT TIME. WITH A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IN
PLACE...ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED.


ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AGAIN. DRY LIGHTNING WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. POPULAR
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN CARRYING A SECOND
WEAK TROUGH OVER NM...THIS TIME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SIMILAR
MECHANISMS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
IN PLACE.


HIGHS WILL SLOWLY WARM NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY...CLIMBING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/00Z-07/00Z...
CAVOK...CAVU...SKC-FEW040. WINDS NE-SE 3-8KTS (LCL W OF DMN S OF
I-10 SE 10G20KT TIL 02Z).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER TODAY.
A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE GILA
WILDERNESS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND AGAIN AROUND NEXT TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AREA WIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 29  59  35  63  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           24  53  29  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              26  58  32  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              24  55  30  61  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              23  42  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   28  58  34  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             25  56  29  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  26  61  32  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               27  60  32  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      31  60  37  62  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               23  53  28  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            28  59  31  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              25  53  31  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  26  60  32  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            27  59  34  62  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          28  56  32  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           23  58  27  62  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   26  60  32  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                30  58  35  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               27  55  32  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 21  45  25  49  30 /   0   0   0  10   0
MESCALERO               23  49  26  52  30 /   0   0   0  10   0
TIMBERON                23  48  28  50  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 24  53  28  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               27  56  32  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               25  60  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            21  56  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  24  56  28  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   24  64  28  68  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              20  63  26  65  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 26  54  31  60  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  27  62  32  67  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 25  59  29  65  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          26  63  30  66  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              29  61  33  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/20
TRIPOLI/LANCE




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