Area Forecast Discussion
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670
FXUS64 KEPZ 282052
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
252 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...West to southwest winds will bring seasonably warm
mostly dry weather to southern New Mexico and west Texas Sunday
through Tuesday. Winds will become more easterly by Wednesday and
this will push sufficient moisture into area for a few
thunderstorms later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low will move very slowly east across southern
California tonight through Sunday before drifting across Arizona
monday through Tuesday. This pattern will induce and sustain a
west to southwest low and mid level winds across southern New
Mexico and west Texas with inflow of warm and dry air mass.
Surface dewpoints will remain mostly less than 30 F through
Tuesday precluding any significant convection while temperatures
stay around normal. Low and mid level gradients also indicate wind
speeds mostly less than the breezy category the next 3 days.

The low and associated trough will move further eastward across
New Mexico/west Texas on wednesday while a weak cold front passes
northeast to southwest through the area. easterly flow behind the
boundary will transport only modest amounts of moisture due to a
continental trajectory but surface dewpoints will still rise into
the 30s and 40s under mid level dynamic cooling attendant with
upper trough. Air mass east of the Rio grander thus becomes weakly
unstable resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms mainly
eastern zones on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday a high amplitude ridge will become
almost stationary and aligned along the central and southern
Rockies while low level flow becomes more southeasterly. Despite
the increased low level southerly wind component overall
trajectories will remain mostly continental so surface dewpoints
will remain generally in the 30s and 40s F while afternoon
temperatures warm to near or a little above normal. This will
contribute to some destabilization of the air mass. In contrast
ridge and attendant subsidence and warming aloft will tend to
limit the convective instability. Consequently expect CAPES will
remain less than 500 J/kg most of the forecast area Thursday
through Saturday with the only thunderstorm initiation mechanisms
being surface heating and upslope flow in favored locations. Thus
will outlook isolated storm coverage most of the cwa extended
periods with the majority of places likely experiencing little
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z-30/00Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a few cu over
the higher terrain of the Black Range and Sacramento Mountains this
afternoon and tomorrow.  Expect light winds overnight with drainage
flows prevailing.  Winds will become SW tomorrow and generally run
in the 10-15 knot range during peak heating/mixing.  A few gusts to
20 knots are not out of the question, especially west of the Rio
Grande.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper low will cut-off and drift over southern California over
the next few days, bringing little in the way of changes in day-to-
day weather across the Desert Southwest.  RH values will drop into
the single digits area-wide, while temperatures climb to a degree or
two above average.  Winds will slowly increase in response to the
upper low`s influence, but 20-foot winds will remain below critical
thresholds even as the upper low moves into New Mexico on Tuesday. A
backdoor cold front may bring isolated thunderstorms to the higher
terrain of the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains mid-week.
Widespread precip is not likely. Dry lightning may be more of a risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  92  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           59  90  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              54  89  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              44  66  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   55  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             47  82  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  48  88  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               50  87  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      58  91  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               53  93  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            59  94  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              56  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  57  93  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            55  90  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          58  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           51  89  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   52  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                53  90  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               57  92  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  80  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               43  78  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                42  76  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 41  82  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               51  87  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               50  88  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            35  79  37  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  45  82  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   41  87  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              36  85  38  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 47  86  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  52  88  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 46  91  48  90 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          50  87  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              47  84  49  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/25 Hardiman



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