Area Forecast Discussion
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988
FXUS64 KEPZ 272052
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
252 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture and sunlight will continue to combine for scatteredthunderstorms
tonight through at least Wednesday. Our high temperatures will
continue to be below normal because of all the clouds and rain
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture and rain chances are on the increase and will continue
for most of the coming week. Currently an upper level ridge well
to our east and a weak upper level trough just to our west
continue to pull moisture up out of Mexico. This morning`s
precipitable water value was just over 1.2 inches which is pretty
good. With all the moisture and the weak trough just to our west
we will see scattered evening thunderstorms tonight. The trough
will be slow to dissipate so on Sunday we will again see
scattered thunderstorms across the area. As the moisture continues
to flow into the area we will see an increased threat for heavy
rain and flash flooding. By the first of the week the upper trough
will be gone, but we will still see lots of moisture flowing into
the region. On Tuesday we will see our precipitable water values
continue to rise to around 1.50 inches. With all the moisture in
place we will see lots of clouds which will keep our temperatures
well below normal. It will be a little bit of a challenge to fire
off storms as, at the moment, there is not a clear trigger, but if
storms are able to fire off they will be very efficient rain
producers and could lead to some flash flooding. We will have to
keep an eye on this potential in the days to come.

By Thursday we will see a slight reduction in our moisture flow as
the upper level ridge noses in from the east, but it won`t last
long as it almost immediately builds back east and allows for
another surge or moisture in the area for next weekend.

High temperatures will be pretty nice for the next seven days.
Highs on Sunday will run a few degree below normal, then highs on
Monday and Tuesday will be running 5 to 10 degrees below normal
because of all the clouds and moisture. That means on Tuesday
lowland highs could top out around 80 degrees. For the middle part
of next week we will still have plenty of moisture and clouds
around so our highs will still be running around 5 degrees below
normal. Finally by the end of the week with slightly drier
conditions so we will see our highs back to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/00Z-29/00Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 thru pd with sct to nmrs mountain
and sct lowland 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 mainly thru 06Z and after 17Z.
Wind gusts to 40kts with thunderstorms...otherwise E to SE winds
east of divide and W to NW west of divide AOB 12kts through 15Z
then generally becoming easterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A moderate low level easterly flow will be developing over the
region over the next couple of days which will keep deep moisture in
place. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
through midweek with temperatures dropping to slightly below normal
due to the precipitation and expected cloud cover. Winds out of the
east may occasionally be gusty over 20 mph but relative humidities
will remain high...generally above 30 percent during this period.
Vent rates however will be fair to good due to weak winds aloft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  89  66  83 /  40  40  50  60
Sierra Blanca           64  87  64  82 /  30  50  40  60
Las Cruces              63  86  62  81 /  40  50  40  60
Alamogordo              62  88  63  83 /  40  50  40  50
Cloudcroft              48  68  47  63 /  50  70  60  90
Truth or Consequences   61  87  61  81 /  30  50  30  50
Silver City             56  82  56  77 /  40  60  40  60
Deming                  63  88  62  82 /  40  40  30  50
Lordsburg               63  91  62  85 /  30  40  30  50
West El Paso Metro      68  89  67  82 /  40  40  50  60
Dell City               64  88  64  83 /  30  50  30  50
Fort Hancock            67  90  67  85 /  40  50  30  50
Loma Linda              62  83  61  78 /  40  50  40  60
Fabens                  66  90  65  83 /  40  40  40  50
Santa Teresa            66  88  65  82 /  40  40  50  60
White Sands HQ          64  86  64  81 /  40  50  50  60
Jornada Range           61  86  61  81 /  40  50  40  60
Hatch                   63  87  63  83 /  40  50  40  50
Columbus                65  89  64  83 /  50  40  40  50
Orogrande               64  86  64  81 /  40  40  40  60
Mayhill                 51  74  51  68 /  50  70  60  80
Mescalero               52  77  52  71 /  40  70  60  80
Timberon                51  74  51  68 /  50  70  60  80
Winston                 51  80  51  75 /  50  70  40  60
Hillsboro               58  84  57  80 /  50  60  40  60
Spaceport               61  85  60  80 /  40  50  40  60
Lake Roberts            51  83  51  78 /  40  70  50  70
Hurley                  57  83  56  78 /  40  60  40  60
Cliff                   58  90  57  85 /  30  50  40  60
Mule Creek              54  86  53  82 /  30  50  30  60
Faywood                 57  85  57  80 /  40  60  40  60
Animas                  61  90  60  84 /  30  40  40  40
Hachita                 62  89  60  83 /  40  40  40  50
Antelope Wells          61  88  60  83 /  50  50  50  40
Cloverdale              59  84  58  78 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz



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