Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221012
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
412 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist airmass will persist today and Sunday, leading to
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will
produce heavy rain and some flooding, especially west of the
Continental Divide. Moisture will decrease just a bit for Monday
and Tuesday with slightly less thunderstorm coverage. Some heavy
rain and flooding is possible, but those chances are less than
this weekend. By Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure aloft will
slide over much of New Mexico, inhibiting the widespread showers
and thunderstorms, making them more scattered.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The wet monsoon pattern should be in full force today and again on
Sunday as a very moist airmass persists over the CWA. Satellite
imagery shows upper high persisting over the lower Mississippi
Valley. This high will weaken and consolidate with the Bermuda
high by Sunday. A new high center is trying to form back over the
Great Basin. Models show a low pressure weakness over western New
Mexico in the middle of the deep moisture plume, which covers the
entire CWA. This weakness may contain one or more MCVs, but hard
to identify in the satellite imagery at this time. TPW product
shows the PWs highest over the NM Bootheel at 1.6 inches (with 1.9
inches not too far to the southwest) and decreasing to 1.3 inches
over the Sac Mtns. Model PWs remain around 1.4 to 1.6 inches both
today and Sunday. Add in good instability and thunderstorm
coverage should be pretty high today and Sunday. Various models
sending mixed signals on QPF, but 00Z runs of GFS and NAM12 both
show QPF maxes over Hidalgo County and the mountain zones. Hi res-
short range models mixed too, with earlier runs relatively light.
But latest 08Z HRRR and RAP13 runs starting to show more
favorable heavy rain for the mountains and west. Will go ahead and
issued Flash Flood Watch for the Hidalgo County zones and also
all mountain zones. The remainder of the area certainly could also
see some flooding- just not as confident in that. Next shift can
look at the morning models and perhaps add more zones to the
watch. Sunday very similar and may experience more flooding.

Monday and Tuesday...GFS showing some subtle differences from
previous runs. Great Basin high ridges out to the east and quickly
forms new center over the Texas Panhandle Monday night. This will
both force the moisture plume a bit further west and provide weak
capping of the atmosphere. Instability and low level moisture
mostly unchanged, so just took POPs down 10-20 percent.

Wednesday and Thursday...upper high continues to expand over New
Mexico and west Texas, with moisture reduced a bit further. Model
PWs are lower at around 1.1 to 1.4 inches. High likely will cap
some thunderstorm development, so took POPs down to scattered
mountains and isolated lowlands.

Interestingly, the GFS continues to show a weakness in the ridge
on Friday (perhaps more MCVs) with increased thunderstorms. In
fact the model develops a large bubble surface high with pretty
cool low level temperatures over most of the CWA. Too far out to
have high confidence in this, but need to watch none the less.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/120Z-23/120Z...
Until 15Z...BKN150 BKN250 with a few BKN100 -SHRA over the
Gila/Black Range. After 17Z, mostly over the mountains, scattered
BKN090 TSRA with ocnl IFR conditions and heavy rain with the
storms. These conditions will spread/develop over the lowlands
after 22Z. Winds mostly south 7-10 kts, except wind gusts to 40
mph near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep layer moisture will remain over the area through Sunday,
resulting in enhanced chances for wetting precip. Heavy rainfall
and localized flooding will remain a concern for most fire zones,
especially in the mountains and west of the Continental Divide.
Rain chances will drop a bit early next week as the upper levels
dry a bit and high pressure aloft builds over New Mexico, but
enough low and mid level moisture will stick around to fuel
isolated to scattered storms each day. Vent rates will be poor
today but become fair to good on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 90  72  88  70 /  20  50  30  60
Sierra Blanca           87  69  86  66 /  20  40  40  40
Las Cruces              89  68  87  65 /  20  40  30  60
Alamogordo              90  68  88  66 /  20  40  30  60
Cloudcroft              67  50  66  51 /  70  70  60  70
Truth or Consequences   88  68  88  66 /  40  40  40  60
Silver City             80  62  77  62 /  70  70  70  70
Deming                  88  68  87  66 /  40  40  50  60
Lordsburg               85  68  84  66 /  70  70  60  60
West El Paso Metro      89  72  87  70 /  20  40  30  60
Dell City               92  71  90  68 /  20  40  40  40
Fort Hancock            91  73  89  72 /  20  50  30  40
Loma Linda              85  67  82  65 /  20  40  30  40
Fabens                  90  72  89  70 /  20  50  30  50
Santa Teresa            89  69  87  67 /  20  50  30  60
White Sands HQ          88  70  87  67 /  20  50  30  70
Jornada Range           89  68  88  65 /  20  50  30  70
Hatch                   91  68  90  66 /  20  40  30  60
Columbus                89  69  87  67 /  40  50  50  60
Orogrande               90  71  88  67 /  20  40  30  50
Mayhill                 75  55  73  55 /  70  60  60  60
Mescalero               78  55  75  56 /  70  70  60  70
Timberon                76  55  73  56 /  70  60  60  70
Winston                 80  58  80  59 /  60  70  60  70
Hillsboro               84  65  85  64 /  50  50  70  70
Spaceport               90  67  88  64 /  20  50  30  70
Lake Roberts            79  56  81  58 /  70  70  70  70
Hurley                  81  62  80  62 /  70  60  70  60
Cliff                   83  58  83  57 /  70  80  50  70
Mule Creek              81  59  84  58 /  60  80  70  70
Faywood                 82  63  84  62 /  60  50  70  70
Animas                  85  68  83  65 /  70  70  60  70
Hachita                 84  67  85  65 /  70  70  60  70
Antelope Wells          82  66  85  63 /  70  70  60  70
Cloverdale              80  64  81  62 /  70  80  60  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through Sunday
     morning for NMZ401>406-408-414>416.

TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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