Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 231134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING IN CENTRAL
KANSAS GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.  NEXT CONCERN IS DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES.
BASED ON 0000 UTC RAOBS...850MB IS SEVERAL DEGREES DRIER THAN
24HRS AGO...AND ALSO EXPECTING MORE SURFACE WIND/MIXING THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A BIT LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SPARSE RAINFALL YESTERDAY. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WISE...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR NEAR FOUR CORNERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND 0000 UTC NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BUT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AHEAD OF
WAVE/FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER MODELS ARE CORRECT
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ALL NIGHT. SUSPECT COMBO OF SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE AND LOSS OF HEIGHT WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO WANE LATE
THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FLINT HILLS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

SUN-MON:
BASICALLY SAME ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD: WEAK FRONT WILL FLIRT
WITH PRIMARY CENTRAL KS. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT AND ANYWHERE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED. THIS WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. HEAT INDICES MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUN.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
LONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS
TRENDED EVEN SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN...WHILE 0000 UTC GFS IS
MUCH FASTER. THIS IMPACTS BOTH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. GFS HAS SHOWN A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...
BUT A FAST SOLUTION IN SUMMER DOLDRUMS SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT.
INITIALIZATION BLEND IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO BEYOND WED....BUT
WOULD FAVOR WARMER ECMWF FOR TUE/WED TIMEFRAME. UNCERTAINTY WILL
FORCE LOW POPS FOR NEARLY ENTIRE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  COULD SEE A LATE AFTERNOON DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORM CHANCE NEAR THE KSLN AND KRSL TAF SITES...BUT ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE CHANCE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO INCLUDE ANY KIND OF TSRA
MENTION IN THE TAFS JUST YET. SO WILL LEAVE THE TSRA/VCTS MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NW
KS...DRIFT EAST TOWARDS THE KRSL TAF SITE LATE TONIGHT OR BY SUN
MORNING...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THIS CHANCE WILL
GET...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE A TSRA MENTION FOR THIS EITHER.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  76  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      98  75  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
NEWTON          98  75  99  73 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        98  76  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         96  72  94  69 /  20  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  20
SALINA          99  75 100  72 /  20  20  20  20
MCPHERSON       98  74  99  72 /  20  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE    100  74  99  75 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         99  74  98  75 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            98  73  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF   100  74  99  75 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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