Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 300445
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Main forecast focus is the ongoing storm system.

Showers and thunderstorms continue across the eastern portion of
the CWA. Ongoing convection remains below severe levels. Would
argue that some of these could be strong with the shear/buoyancy
combinations, but the most significant threat is well to the east
of the area.

The main focusing mechanism for the convection across southeast
Kansas is an inverted trough which extends north of a low which
was centered over eastern Oklahoma. Satellite/radar/observations
show a back edge to the main area of convection which extended
from about OKC-ICT-MCI. This should continue moving east as the
system.

One thing of note was that on the back side of this trough, there
was a small mesoscale area of northeast winds gusting over 40
knots. This was noted on the WSR-88D where winds exceeding 50
knots were observed. This was very localized and at the moment and
is not seen in the observations.

Well behind this area of precipitation, a second area of forcing
and associated precipitation extends across western Kansas. Much
of this is snow with significant accumulations. This forcing is
associated with the main PV anomaly which is well back across the
4 corners region.

This is significant since the main forcing does not move across
the state until late tonight through morning Sunday. This means
that there remains very high confidence in significant
precipitation across the state through Sunday. Of note here this
the forcing depicted with this storm is one of the more prolific
Q-vector convergence signals that I have seen.

As the storm exits, enough cold air will be brought into the CWA
for snow to fall in central Kansas. This should accumulate along
and north of a line from Salina to Great Bend. Accumulations right
now are expected to be an inch or less.

The flood watch looks in good shape. Have received reports of over
2 inches or rainfall across the southern and eastern portion of
the CWA. Many ditches are running full but no flooding has been
reported. We expected an additional 2-3 inches of rain through the
remainder of the storm, so flooding is still possible, and likely
along the rivers in that part of the state.

Storm Bottom line: very high confidence in additional
precipitation, fairly high confidence in snow across central
Kansas with an inch or less of accumulation. Good confidence in
receiving about 2-3 inches across southeast Kansas. Storm should
exit the region Sunday night.

The next problems to deal with are the wind and low temperatures
Sunday night. Strong cold advection behind the front will push
temperature down toward freezing Sunday night across central
Kansas. Will have to monitor, but no frost expected with the
amount of wind expected. Soundings suggest enough momentum
transport for wind advisories Sunday afternoon and evening across
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The main challenge here is the system moving through the region
Wednesday. The ECMWF/GFS runs today trend further south and east
with the precipitation. And while that storm system does take a
similar track, the associated upper level disturbance is not
nearly is vigorous. This means less forcing and less
precipitation. Confidence is moderate at receiving additional
precipitation, higher for southeast Kansas. Severe storms do not
look probable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Low clouds in IFR category will continue to blanket much of the
region for tonight into Sunday. Meanwhile numerous rain
showers/pockets of drizzle will develop and affect the area. The
rain could change over to a rain/snow mix late tonight or around
daybreak for central Kansas followed by some light snow for Sunday
morning. Northwesterly winds will increase as surface low deepens
during the afternoon on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  44  38  67 /  80  60  30   0
Hutchinson      39  41  37  66 /  90  70  40   0
Newton          41  41  37  64 /  80  60  40   0
ElDorado        44  44  38  66 /  70  60  40   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  47  39  68 /  70  50  20   0
Russell         35  35  34  62 / 100  90  50   0
Great Bend      35  36  35  63 / 100  80  40   0
Salina          39  40  37  64 / 100  80  60  10
McPherson       39  40  37  64 /  90  70  50   0
Coffeyville     49  51  41  67 /  80  40  20   0
Chanute         50  51  40  64 /  90  50  30  10
Iola            50  51  40  63 /  90  50  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    50  51  41  66 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRC
LONG TERM...KRC
AVIATION...CDJ



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