Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010231
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
931 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Backdoor cold front that has gradually pushed SW across the forecast
area earlier today, has led to diminishing shower trends across most
of the forecast area this evening.  Still seeing some lingering
moderate showers around KHUT, but think this batch of showers will
slowly shift to the W-SW as the late evening progresses. In the wake
of the front, drier low level air will continue to filter southwest
into the area tonight. Already seeing signs of this drier air across
NW MO where surface dewpoints falling into the low 60s. This drier
air will help push the tropical airmass, that has plagued the plains
for the last few days well to the south-southwest of the forecast
area by Thu morning.  This will bring any shower chances to an end
by around midnight, with a couple of nice fall like days on tap for
Thu and Fri.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

A west to east oriented mid-upper level shear axis embedded within a
subtropical moist plume extended from northeast Colorado across
northern Kansas this afternoon. A very high precipitable water
airmass (1.8-2.0 inches) continues along and south of this shear
axis, which will be shunted very slowly southward Tonight, as upper
troughing digs into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Weak
low-mid level confluence and upper level diffluence, combined with
pockets of diurnal heating will be enough to keep scattered clusters
of thunderstorms developing across the forecast area late this
afternoon into this evening, with a trend toward diminishing/ending
rain chances from north to south Tonight. Locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be the main threat with the
strongest activity, although widespread coverage is not expected.

Surface high pressure will build into the midwest Thursday into
Friday, with drier/cooler air spreading into Kansas and mostly
clear skies.

An upper trough will spread into the western states later Friday
through Saturday, with modest mid-level height falls across the
Central Plains. 850-700 theta-e advection may lead to mid-level
accas or isolated, elevated convection early Saturday morning in
western/central Kansas, with a slightly better signal for elevated
storms Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Medium range models continue to show a mean, positively-tilted upper
trough anchored over the western CONUS during this extended period.
Meanwhile, an upper ridge is progged to develop over the Southeast
behind a departing extratropical cyclone moving northeast away from
the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. Several shortwave troughs will rotate
through the western CONUS upper trough, which should eventually
allow a cold front to make its way southward into Kansas sometime
early-mid week. Warmer than normal temperatures can be expected
during this period with persistent moist/unstable, southerly flow.
Periodic low thunderstorm chances (20-40%) remain in the forecast
for parts of central/southeast KS, although cold frontal timing
and outflow effects from MCS activity are highly uncertain this
far out. Relatively higher thunderstorm probabilities are progged
just north/northeast of our forecast area at this time, although
adjustments are likely in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Drier air continues to ooze into the area from the northeast late
this evening/tonight, which will attempt to dissipate the low
ceilings and low level moisture that has been entrenched across the
area for the past few days. Could still see some MVFR ceilings
linger or even lower to IFR generally across Central KS given
upslope effects and diurnal cooling amidst a relatively moist
boundary layer. But confidence in this MVFR cloud deck staying
around for the overnight hours is low, as the drier air keeps
pushing SW into the area. Confidence is high that VFR conditions
will prevail by 12z/Thu.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  82  59  83 /  40  10   0   0
Hutchinson      62  81  58  81 /  30  10   0   0
Newton          62  80  57  81 /  30  10   0   0
ElDorado        63  81  58  81 /  30  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  82  60  83 /  40  10   0   0
Russell         58  80  57  81 /  20   0   0  10
Great Bend      59  80  58  82 /  30  10   0  10
Salina          59  81  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       61  80  57  81 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     67  82  59  82 /  40  10   0   0
Chanute         63  80  58  81 /  30   0   0   0
Iola            62  80  58  81 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    65  81  59  82 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...Ketcham


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