Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 281846
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...The mid level ridge
remains over the region for the short term.  After any lingering
convection this evening dissipates...should see a mostly clear
night.  By Monday the axis of the mid level ridge shifts west...with
subsidence and drying shown across our area. Model soundings show
little instability...but for now will keep the previous forecast of
slight chance PoPs going for the afternoon. Will make some tweaks up
to MAV max temps once again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...Minimal changes made to
the extended forecast as the ridge of high pressure remains the
dominate weather feature through much of this week. This will
provide continued above normal temperatures through at least
Thursday. Strong daytime heating combined with a few weak
disturbances will bring the chance for isolated to scattered
convection most afternoons, with the best chance across the higher
elevations.  Models are still inconsistent on the finer details, but
at this point it looks like a stronger frontal boundary will move in
from the north and cross the area during the Thursday/Friday
timeframe, bringing a better chance for more widespread coverage of
showers/thunderstorms for the end of the workweek and just slightly
cooler temperatures for the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  94  70  93 /  20  20  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  94  68  92 /  20  20  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  94  70  93 /  20  20  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  92  64  91 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/EMH



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