Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 250645
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
245 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)...Weak frontal boundary will be
near our southern border today. This boundary may be enough to
trigger a few showers and thunderstorms mainly south, although model
soundings look weakly capped over most of the area.  Will carry
slight chance PoPs south for this afternoon.  Should be dry
overnight tonight with a mostly clear sky.  Temperatures today will
be rather hot, but humidity levels will not be as high especially
north/central. Will not stray from from MAV temps.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)...The extended will begin with
continued hot and humid conditions.  Low level moisture will be in
place and this with the strong diurnal heating will allow isolated
convection to develop over higher elevations and some southern
locations for Wednesday into Wednesday evening.  Models in rather
poor agreement with timing of an approaching frontal boundary around
the Thursday/Friday time frame.  The NAM is a bit faster...bringing
the boundary in late Thursday into Thursday evening while the GFS
and ECMWF moves it in late Thursday night into Friday.  This feature
should provide our area with the best chance of organized
thunderstorms throughout the extended.   Will continue with change
pops on Thursday but trend towards the slower solution with higher
pops into Friday.  By Saturday and Sunday...the front should have
exited the region with surface high pressure building in.  This will
allow for a bit cooler weekend with a chance of normal summertime
diurnal convection.  A weak short wave may push into the area on
Monday...bringing an increased chance of convection into the area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  74  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  70  90  70 /  10  10  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              90  63  89  67 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/MJB



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