Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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445
FXUS64 KMRX 140901
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
401 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODELS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.  LOOKS LIKE THE TRACK WILL SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR MOVING IN EVENTUALLY...SO THAT A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF THE PRECIP IS RAIN.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TODAY
AS AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN.  MUCH OF THIS EARLY BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
SNOW...AND SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO WARRANT A WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE
WATCH AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. WILL PUT A FEW
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WATCH...INCLUDING THE SMOKIES...INTO AN
ADVISORY.  WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN.  WILL MENTION IN
HWO.  LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT BEFORE THE COLD
AIR MOVES BACK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO JUST A BIT OF SNOW MAINLY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP WINDS DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE
EXITING AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS TUESDAY MORNING TAKING DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG WITH IT. HOWEVER...THE ADVERTISED TRAILING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DRIVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID WEST AT
THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...PRECIP PROBABILITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS WARMER AIR
WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE FAST
MOVING WAVE ALLOWING MUCH OF THE ACTION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE COLDER SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FROM AROUND KNOXVILLE SOUTHWEST TO CHATTANOOGA. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATION EMPHASIS MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS WELL AS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD KEEP OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING
IN THE USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY FROM AROUND KNOXVILLE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TRI-CITIES MAY NOT INCLUDE ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW
DUE TO THE FACT THAT MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARMING
WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE PROMISED DRY PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FRIDAY REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE ENERGY RICH JET STREAM ACROSS THE MID
LATITUDES DURING THE WINTER SEASON WILL...OF COURSE....NOT ALLOW FOR
ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES RIDE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES WHILE
DRAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THERE SHOULD BE SOME RATHER WELCOME WARMING THROUGH THE LAST THREE
DAYS OF THE WEEK AND THE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THESE
FEATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  39  51  39 /  30  70  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  31  48  37 /  70  90 100 100
OAK RIDGE, TN                       32  32  45  37 /  80 100 100  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              29  28  42  34 /  90 100 100 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-ROANE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST MONDAY
     FOR ANDERSON-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-
     SCOTT TN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST MONDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





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