Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 192346 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
20/00Z TAFs. Deteriorating conditions expected across northern
Oklahoma terminals 04-06Z. IFR/LIFR conditions expected to develop
there and persist through 15-18Z time frame. Central Oklahoma
terminals including OKC will be on the southern edge of potential
fog/stratus. Near these edges we could see LIFR conditions but
will not be quite as pessimistic/as far south as HRRR/RAP. Will
mention TEMPO at OKC/OUN/CSM. VFR conditions at all terminals
after 18Z with gusty southwest wind.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A longwave trough over the western U.S. will progress toward the
east during the next seven days, while several shortwave troughs
flow through it. Each of the shortwave troughs will bring shifting
winds, and one of them will bring a significant chance for rain.

Low-level moisture remains over at least the northern half of
Oklahoma, especially the far north. This will likely result in
another night of fog, but it is difficult to say at this point how
much fog there will be--or the possible minimum visibilities.
Dense fog is certainly a possibility, especially near the Kansas
border.

The next shortwave trough to approach the southern Plains will
arrive tomorrow. It will have the primary effect of strengthening
a surface low over the Oklahoma Panhandle, which will in turn
raise wind speeds during the day. Downslope effects with southwest
winds will cause a relatively warm and dry day, especially in the
southwest.

The second shortwave trough will bring the most obvious effects,
with relatively high chances for rain, some thunderstorms, and
more wind. Winds will be strongest with this system on Sunday, as
northwest flow brings cooler weather back to the region.

After the weekend, dry and cool weather will be the rule, as
mainly northwest flow becomes established over the southern
Plains. The last of the shortwave troughs to affect Oklahoma/north
Texas during the coming week will arrive Tuesday, but is not
currently expected to have any significant sensible weather
effects associated with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  40  67  40  63 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         38  68  37  62 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  43  72  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           33  64  31  57 /   0   0   0  20
Ponca City OK     41  61  36  60 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         46  71  47  66 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/11


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