Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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783
FXUS64 KOUN 100319 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
919 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED THE WATCH THINKING THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO SHALLOW
WITH VERTICAL MIXING...TOO COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
TOO MOIST NEAR THE GROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE MARGINAL...GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH...AND RH 15-25
PERCENT...THINK HIGH FUEL LOADING FROM LAST YEAR/S RECORD RAINFALL
AND FAIRLY HIGH FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM12/GFS20 FAVORED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...AND
SHAWNEE AT 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CURRENTLY
FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO COOL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE
WARM SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD EXCEED 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25



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