Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191959
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  75  59  77 /  10  60  60  50
HOBART OK         58  74  57  80 /  20  50  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  75  60  81 /  20  50  50  40
GAGE OK           58  77  56  78 /  20  40  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  79  59  77 /  10  50  60  50
DURANT OK         58  79  61  77 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



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