Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 251556
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Updates this morning, mainly to POPs and clouds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have been making updates through the morning to account for trends
in the precipitation and cloud cover. Although showers were
lingering this morning in north central Oklahoma, they have
weakened considerably and now only include the mention of some
sprinkles in the north central where KVNX has been showing some
light echoes. Clouds have also lingered quite a bit in the west,
but drier air is slowly filtering in. May have to make some more
adjustments to clouds if they continue to be slow moving out of
the western areas.

For Sunday`s storm potential...we will continue to watch how far
the low- level moisture gets scrubbed across Texas as the cold
front is now within a few miles of the Texas gulf coast. Models
continue to show the front stalling near the coast with moisture
lurking very close to the coast and a quick return to southerly
low-level winds pulling moisture up ahead of tomorrow`s storm
system. The moisture will be a last-minute arrival back into north
Texas and Oklahoma, but the synoptic models are consistent with
bringing upper 50s dewpoints back into the area by 00Z. But
specific expectations as far as timing of development and severity
will depend on the timing and quality of this moisture return...
so much remains to be seen yet.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

AVIATION...
MFVR ceilings will gradually dissipate from west to east throughout
the day today as gusty northwest winds diminish. A few showers will
impact PNC this morning. Winds become light around 00Z this evening
before shifting back to the southeast overnight, but will remain
light through end of forecast period.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns will be with regards to potential severe
weather/fire weather Sunday and heavy rainfall mid-week.

As large upper low cont to pull east this morning, could have a
few lingering showers across northeast parts of the area.
Otherwise, anticipate a quieter day today with diminishing
northwest winds and cooler temperatures.

Winds will quickly turn back to the south/southeast overnight
tonight and increase Sunday morning. These winds will pull
increasing amounts of low level moisture back north into the area.
Models have trended back to showing a plume of better moisture
moving north into the area ahead of small compact storm system by
Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS shows upwards of 1500 J/kg developing
along and ahead of a dryline that takes shape from northwest
Oklahoma southward into western north Texas by afternoon.
Favorable wind profiles also would suggest the potential for
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing all types of severe
weather. I think there is still some uncertainty with regards to
moisture return, but if sufficient low level moisture can return,
allowing lower LCL heights, some tornado potential will exist
across the area Sunday afternoon into the evening hours,
especially where the SPC currently has an enhanced risk area on
their latest day 2 outlook. This would include the OKC metro area.
Stay up to date on the latest as this continues to evolve.

Some fire weather issues may develop on Sunday as well across
parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, to the west
of the advancing dryline. However, with some uncertainties
regarding the location of the dryline and wind speeds that may
only reach criteria for a short time, will hold off on any
headlines at this point.

This system will shift east rather quickly Sunday night with
another cooler and dry day Monday. A rather active period is then
anticipated for much of next week as a couple of storm systems
move through the central part of the country. Severe weather can
not be ruled out, especially across southern Oklahoma into north
Texas Tue/Wed time frame. However, think main impact will be the
potential for significant and much needed rainfall. Current
forecast however does have anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain
from late Tuesday through Thursday. Confidence in the day to day
details however remain somewhat limited in the mid to late week
time frame as differences begin to show up between the medium
range models.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  45  77  52 /  10   0  30  40
Hobart OK         67  46  79  49 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  71  48  85  51 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           67  43  76  43 /   0   0  20  20
Ponca City OK     58  41  74  50 /  40   0  40  70
Durant OK         70  49  80  57 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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