Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 281556 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ALSO...DELAYED RAIN CHANCES IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HAVING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105 DEGREES...ADDED THE
DURANT AND ATOKA AREAS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE
ADVISORY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY OVERALL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN
MANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER.
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM NEAR A WEAK FRONT IN
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY. APPEARS THE EARLIEST TIMING
OF STORMS WOULD BE 5 PM...THUS DELAYED TIMING. STORM COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA IN SOME
PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA SO DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEWPT AND TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED... BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE
ADVISORY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NW OK TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
STALLING. INITIALLY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AND STORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOO GREAT
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER STILL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER... MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING WEST
LATER THIS WEEK WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE FA ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME DISTURBANCES MAY
MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT NW
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK SO RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY
FOR SOME. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THE NW FLOW BUT DOES
OCCASIONALLY HAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES.

THE FRONT... CLOUDS... AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING WEST...
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  95  72 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK        101  74  98  72 /   0  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK          100  70  89  68 /  20  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  92  70 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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