Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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831
FXUS64 KOUN 301735
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.AVIATION...
3018/3118 TAFS...
Widely scattered to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will develop through the afternoon, with perhaps more coverage
across western Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall associated with the
showers may reduce visibility below 1 mile. Otherwise, mainly
VFR conditions are expected through 18z Wednesday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

AVIATION...
Scattered showers will increase through the morning around KGAG
and KWWR. This afternoon, showers are expected to transition to
thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will spread
over the area this afternoon, but confidence is too low for
mention in TAFs. Showers and storms should diminish toward sunset.
Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions will prevail.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Abundant moisture over the area will keep at least slight chance
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast over the next several
days. Currently, a moisture axis over the Texas panhandle has been
feeding showers over that region. Hi-res models show this convection
eventually reaching into northwest Oklahoma later this morning.

Scattered showers will spread across the area this afternoon in
response to diurnal heating and some isentropic lift. Not expecting
this activity to become widespread, so kept POPs on the low side.

As we move into Wednesday and Wednesday night, the trough moving
across the Great Lakes pulls a cold front through the region,
increasing chances for showers, especially across northwestern
portions of Oklahoma where moisture remains the highest.

Toward Thursday night into Friday, a surface high moves in, limiting
convection briefly. Southern parts of the CWA retain some low chance
POPs as the weak surface high struggle to push all the moisture out.
This break is short-lived, however, as the next trough moves in late
in the weekend and southerly winds allow moisture to return.

Temperatures throughout the forecast period are capped in the
relatively cool mid 80s to lower 90s, with Thursday and Friday
looking to be the coolest days of the week.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  89  69  86 /  30  50  30  30
Hobart OK         69  89  68  86 /  20  40  30  40
Wichita Falls TX  72  92  71  90 /  20  40  20  40
Gage OK           65  84  64  83 /  50  60  50  40
Ponca City OK     69  85  67  85 /  30  50  30  20
Durant OK         72  93  72  90 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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