Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290554
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1054 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

INCREASED POPS FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACRS THE
SERN PLAINS...MTNS AND THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY...WRN FREMONT
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF ZONE 62 FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG
WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON NEW RUN OF THE
NAM12.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

...ARCTIC FRONT ON MONDAY...

.CURRENTLY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...WITH THE WINDS STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF
THE GAPS ON THE MOUNTAINS.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
WELL INTO THE 40S.  WEBCAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO.   MOIST WEST OT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO.  SNOW ADVISORY FOR MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES STILL LOOKS GOOD AS EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE THESE MOUNTAINS.  FURTHER
SOUTH...MAINTAINED SCATTERED POPS FOR LA GARITA AND EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
OROGRAPHICS.  ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR MOSTLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.  KALS
ONLY REACHED THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND SUSPECT THERE WAS NOT MUCH
SUBLIMATION IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  DECIDED NOT TO PUT FOG IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE VALLEY.

.MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING.  COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA.
THE COLDEST AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUSPECT THIS WILL
BE THE CASE WHEN THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANTICIPATE THE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES..THEN MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING. OTHER CONCERN IS SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
AMOUNTS DO NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. ANTICIPATE THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AND
EASILY BLOWN. DECIDED TO LEAVE SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT
OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY. LIGHT TOP MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES AND WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY.
ELSEWHERE...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW DURING THE
DAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. - -PGW--

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

...IN THE DEEP FREEZE TUESDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...FRIGID AIR IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE CWA LATE NIGHT...AND SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. ALSO WITH WINDS ABOVE 5 MPH AND THE FRIGID AIR
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILL READINGS MAY REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THE NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS CAN FINE-TUNE...AND PERHAPS
ISSUE THAT HIGHLIGHT.  WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CWA LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT TERRAIN. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVER THE CWA. THERE WILL
LIKELY ONLY BE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE HIGHEST IN SOUTHERN COLORADO. NAM12 DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE
WITH THE COLD AIR...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN INCH OR TWO OF FLUFF
ON THE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. NAM12 SHOWS THE UPSLOPE FLOW
IS QUITE SHALLOW...WITH 700MB WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
EASTERLY...WHILE 500MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS.
WILL TONE DOWN HIGHER ELEVATION AMOUNTS SOME ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...DETERMINING FACTORS FOR HOW COLD IT WILL BE...AS
USUAL...ARE SKY CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVER.  NAM12 STILL SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WHICH COULD KEEP SOME CLOUDINESS IN.
NONETHELESS...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE A BELOW ZERO. NAM12 WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS IS ALSO HINTING AT
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.  HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THEM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP...BUT
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE QUITE LOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...DUE TO POOR
MIXING.  THEREFORE...HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY.  THE
LOWEST HIGHS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH
MILDER READINGS WHERE THE MOMENTUM IS MIXING DOWN.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...EURO AND GFS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. BEST DYNAMICS
FORECAST TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...BUT ANY WAVERING FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD CHANGE THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
HIGHS FROM THE 20S TO THE UPPER 30S DURING THE PERIOD. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

COLD FRONT WL DROP SOUTH INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. KCOS WL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z...WITH SNOW THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING LOWER VSBY AND CIGS WITH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
REST OF THE DAY AND THRU MONDAY NIGHT. KPUB WL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
INTO MON MORNING WITH CIGS LOWERING THRU THE MORNING WITH SOME
SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AFTER ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z. BY
MIDDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR OR IFR IN SNOW THRU THE
REST OF THE DAY AND THRU MONDAY NIGHT. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SHOWERS WL LIKELY BE
IN THE VCNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE EVENING HOURS...KALS MAY SEE
LIGHT SNOW WHICH WOULD THEN REDUCE THE VSBY AND CIGS...HOWEVER TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ081-082-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ072>075-079-080-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28



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