930
FXUS65 KPUB 051123
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
523 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather for the San Luis Valley today and
  areawide on Monday, possibly into the middle of the week.

- Wind driven snow along the Continental Divide tonight with
  strong and possibly damaging winds across the southeast
  mountains and immediate adjacent plains later tonight into
  Monday.

- Trend towards a wetter and cooler pattern late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates increasing
southwest flow aloft across the region, with a strong upper low digging into
the Great Basin attm. Water vapor and satellite imagery is also indicating
mid and upper level moisture streaming out ahead of the system into western
Colorado this morning, with lee troughing and southerly low level winds
helping to develop stratus across the southern slopes of the Palmer Dvd
and Raton Mesa, as will as across the far southeast plains and western
Kansas at this time.

Latest models remain in good agreement of increasing southwest flow aloft
across the region today and tonight, as the upper low continues to dig
across the Great Basin this afternoon and remains progged to lift out across
the Rockies later tonight through the day on Monday. The progged movement
of the this system keeps much of southern Colorado in the dry and windy
portion of the storm, with the systems strong jet core translating across
south central Colorado tonight and across southeast Colorado through the
day Monday. Expecting breezy south to southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph
across the region this afternoon, leading to another round of critical
fire weather conditions across the San Luis Valley this afternoon. Further
east, southerly flow will keep enough low level moisture to preclude any
fire weather highlights, despite temperatures warming back into the 70s
to lower 80s, afternoon morning stratus burns off.

Increasing moisture and lift ahead of the system will develop snow across
the Continental Divide, with snow and blowing snow likely creating hazardous
travel across the higher mountain passes later tonight into early Monday
morning, as the bora front pushes east. While snow accumulations may only
tally up to to 6 inches, the strong winds may necessitate the addition of
a brief winter weather highlight.

Further east, will see increasing west to southwest winds ahead of the front
later tonight, with strong westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph and gusts of 65 to
75 mph, strongest over and near the southeast mountains, as the bora front
continues to translate east early Monday morning. Latest HREF and high res
guidance indicates very high chances of 70-90 percent of winds >60 mph and
50-80 percent of winds >70 mph across this area, and have issued a high
wind watch for the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mtns, the southern I-25 Corridor
and Teller County and the Rampart Range. There is the potential for brief high
wind criteria across extreme western portions of El Paso and Pueblo counties,
as well as eastern Fremont county, with brute force winds behind the front,
however will let later shifts get a look at more data before upgrading and
possibly expanding the high wind watch.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Moderate to strong westerly flow aloft prevails across the Rockies
through the day Monday, as the bora front continues out across the
eastern Plains through the late morning. Models continue to indicate
very dry air mixing down across the region through the day. This,
combined with the gusty westerly winds of 30 to 60 mph, will create
critical fire weather conditions areawide, and have upgraded the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning across the San Luis Valley
and portions of the plains, where fuels are deemed critical.
Temperatures cool behind the bora system on Monday, though are still
around seasonal levels in the 60s to mid 70s across the Plains, and
in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, save 30s at the peaks.

Moderate westerly flow continues across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, keeping mainly dry, save for some showers across the
ContDvd, breezy and warm conditions in place through mid week, with
the potential for critical fire weather conditions, especially
across the San Luis Valley.

Cool and unsettled weather remains in the offing for Wednesday night
through the end of the work week, as models continue to indicate a
broad upper trough in place across the Rockies. This will allow for
a few fronts to move across the region, as well as support shower
chances, especially over and near the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

COS...Southerly low level flow has helped to develop IFR stratus across
the southern slopes of the Palmer Dvd early this morning. Expecting
stratus to burn off by 16Z with VFR conditions expected through the rest
of the taf period. Gusty south to southwest winds 25-35kts this afternoon
will become more southeast and weaken some through the early evening,
leading the potential for llws through the late evening, as southwest
flow aloft increases ahead of strong front/jet translating across the Rockies.
This front will move across southeast Colorado early Monday morning, with
gusty westerly winds 25-45 mph expected in its wake.

PUB and ALS...Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with
gusty south to southwest winds of 25-40kts this afternoon, strongest in
the San Luis Valley, where patchy BLDU could bring brief reductions in vis.
Southerly winds stay up through the evening, with gusty westerly winds of
25-45kts developing behind the passing bora front through the end of the taf
period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for COZ224-225-
232-233-237.
High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
COZ072>075-079-080-087-088.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
COZ081-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW