Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 132352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
652 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. BITTER COLD AIR. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY INCREASES MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AT
SURFACE AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A
WINTRY CONCOCTION TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT DID
EASE UP THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WE
DECOUPLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT.  WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS...STILL LIKE OUR IDEA OF COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...SINCE ANY MID CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL
DAWN IN THE SOUTH.

HAVE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING SUNDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE SOURCE IS LIMITED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND 0.5.  SO ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES
DOWN WHERE POPS INCREASE.

STILL TOUGH ON WHEN FLAKES WILL REACH THE GROUND AFTER BEING ALOFT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  HAVE SOME LKLY POPS REACHING NE KY AROUND 20 TO
21Z AND SPREADING TOWARD SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND BKW BY 22Z.

STILL HOLDING CHANCE POPS OFF FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 21Z.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH AN INCH OR LESS BY
23Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
INTERESTING SYSTEM TO FORECAST FOR BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE FAIRLY BROADLY ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE QPF CORE AND COLD
AIR. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWLANDS WHERE 925 AND 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE A WARM WEDGE OF NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING AIR
SNEAKING UP THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. EURO KEEPS THE
SYSTEM WARM...GFS TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND WHILE THE NAME REMAINS
THE COLDEST. IF EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...WE REMAIN WARM AND WET
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AT THE ONSET. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
IS WHAT THE FORECAST IS TAILORED AFTER GIVES A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
IN MOST PLACES TO START OFF WITH AND THEN GRADUALLY SWITCHES OVER
TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY RAIN EXCEPT IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.

IF THE NAM SOLUTION RING TRUE...IT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...BUT MOST OF THE QPF REMAINS OFF TO THE EAST.

SO ALL SAID AND DONE...2 TO 4 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MOST OF
OUR CWA WHILE 8 OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR...AND
CREATING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS AND
NAM INDICATING A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. GENERALLY FIGURING
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. DRIER...AND GRADUALLY WARMING WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE
CLIPPER...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. A STRONG INVERSION TONIGHT COULD KEEP SOME SMOKE FROM
WOOD BURNING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING ELKINS TOWARD DAWN
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS...BUT
WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY IF CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP.

THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THICKENING AND LOWERING
FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TOMORROW...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.

BY 18Z-20Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY START REACHING THE GROUND ALONG
WEST VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY...PLUS ALONG THE KENTUCKY AND VIRGINIA
BORDER.

CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET AND VISIBILITY NEAR 3 MILES POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS 18Z IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST AS SNOW BEGINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOWFALL TOMORROW IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND MAY HOLD OFF BEYOND THE CURRENT 00Z TAF PERIOD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT AND
MONDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WESTERN SLOPES MAY IMPROVE FOR A TIME MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ032-035>040-
     046-047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ035>038-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK


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