Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 200016
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
716 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow
will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front
passing Saturday. A strong cold front crosses late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 705 PM Friday...

Watching the stratus deck in the Tennessee Valley this evening
and the implications here overnight. The NAM and RAP models seem
to have a good handle on this in their respective soundings.
They bring this deck into parts of the area late through
significant moistening in the H9 to H875 layer, primarily along
and east of the Ohio River. As a result, I have increased sky
grids considerably late and carried this deck through much of
Saturday east of the Ohio River. Tweaked hourly temps tonight to
show a quick fall in the hollers and sheltered valleys versus
the hilltops. Once the clouds move in, temps should level off
and rise toward morning.

As of 200 PM Friday...

A ridge of high pressure remains in place with the center of
high pressure over the north central Gulf coast providing dry
weather to start the near-term. Brilliant sunshine and modest
low- level warm air advection warms us nicely into the 40`s
across lowland locations this afternoon. Decoupling tonight a
little tougher than last night with SW flow picking up aloft,
but still a decent bet in the most deeply incised, sheltered
valleys. Models are still struggling to latch onto any one
solution at this point. So have chose a middle-of-the-road
approach favoring cooler temperatures in low spots.

Tomorrow, moisture starts streaming in from the west/southwest
providing some low-level clouds/stratus to start. Low-levels and
eventually mid-levels saturate through the day, particularly
across the northern zones. So, have decided to introduce drizzle
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

A warm front moves towards the area late Saturday night with
overrunning. Forecast soundings are indicating a period of
possible drizzle and fog as the warm moist air starts to push
in. In the Northeast mountain valleys, some areas could be
below freezing and may have a period of freezing drizzle or fog
before we eventually warm early Sunday morning. Warm frontal
light rain will continue on Sunday, with very light amounts
expected. Temperatures Sunday will just up into the mid to
possibly upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

Strong cold front will push into the Ohio Valley Monday
afternoon. POPs increase quickly after 18Z Monday and widespread
rain will overspreads the region Monday night. Thinking amounts
should only be a half in or less in most places, but on the high
end, maybe three quarters of an inch could fall in some spots.
Cold air will push in behind the front on Tuesday and could see
a changeover to snow, especially in the mountains, but moisture
will be limited.  Flow aloft settles back into a zonal pattern
for the back end of the extended forecast. High pressure and
warmer air should work back in by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 710 PM Friday...

VFR conditions thru 06Z amid light southwesterly surface winds.
Thereafter, low level moisture will increase with low stratus
building into the area from the Tennessee Valley. This should
allow MVFR cigs to develop across most terminals, except KPKB,
in the 09 to 12z time frame. This stratus will linger through
much of Saturday and perhaps lower during the afternoon,
especially at KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing onset of MVFR cigs may vary an hour
or two.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible Saturday night with fog and drizzle...and again
Monday/Monday night with rain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/MC
NEAR TERM...30/MC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...30



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