Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 060838
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT A
COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND HTS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY. SNOW COVER AND SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO
RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...KMC






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