Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 271738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



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