Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 242122
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
522 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After another warm, muggy night, and another hot, humid day on
Monday, a weak cold front drops through Monday night lingering
into Tuesday. Another system is slated for late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
515 PM UPDATE...
In coordination with ILN, have issued heat advisory for Monday
afternoon for a similar area as today, except with the northern
tier trimmed on account of the approaching cold front.

Previous discussion...
High pressure bringing oppressive dew points to the area with
temps in the 90s making for heat indices hovering around 100.
Abundant moisture and instability may kick off an isolated shower
this afternoon, but lack of forcing mechanisms and dynamics should
quell anything significant relegating everything to garden variety
modes. Radar indicates a few of these pinhole cells are already
popping up here and there.

A front to our north should slide close to our area by Monday
morning increasing clouds and giving a slight chance for some
PoPs and some relief from the heat and humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The front and associated upper level wave will slowly sag into the
area Monday night with a good chance for shra/tsra. High pwats and
relatively weak flow spells torrential downpours as the main
hazard. This system still looks to meander about southern sections
on Tuesday and the overall flow becomes more zonal and remains
weak. So have the best chances for shra/tsra across S zones
Tuesday with drier air taking hold across SE OH/N WV. A slight
nudge further S on Wednesday but still sct mainly diurnally driven
shra/tsra generally S of I64 corridor. The heat wave will give way
to temps more close to normal for this time of year...but still a
bit toasty.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This front dissolves later on Thursday as the next s/w trof and
surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage
by Friday. An amplifying upper level trof will settle in for the
weekend with a cooler airmass taking hold.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected this afternoon with some mid and high clouds.
Isolated t-shower possible this afternoon but low enough coverage
to keep out of TAFs for now. More clouds around tonight, so think
fog should be less. Did maintain IFR at EKN, with some MVFR
borderline IFR fog possible at other river valley sites.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday. Early morning IFR fog
possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for WVZ005>009-
     013>019-024>029.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ075-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JW
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW


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