Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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116
FXUS61 KRLX 191125
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
625 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system exits this morning. Unseasonably warm through the
work week with another weak system Tuesday into Wednesday. A
more organized system drifts this way for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM Sunday...

Any lingering rain/drizzle will come to an end over the next
several hours. However, stratus will remain in place through
most of the morning. The clouds should scatter out through the
afternoon.

Only minimal changes made to temperature forecast through the
period, with 50s and 60s today and upper 30s to low 40s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...
Not a whole lot of change from previous forecast. Still think
most models are running precip in too fast, so tried to hold
back on early PoPs on Tuesday.

As of 300 PM Saturday...

Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system
looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. I hedged
toward the slower NAM given the stout upper ridge that will be
in place ahead of this system. Still feel many southern areas
hit or surpass 70 degrees Monday and possibly Tuesday, despite
the abundance of high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

The very warm pattern continues through the week. Introduced
thunder on Thu and Fri as moisture from a warm front begins to
nose into the region from a much larger system headed through
the Great Lakes region. This system`s cold front will move
through our area on Saturday giving a sharp cool down and
perhaps thunderstorms along the frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 615 AM Sunday...

Surface wave passing by early this morning. Precip has mainly
come to an end, however low stratus has developed with MVFR to
IFR across the forecast area. Expecting the IFR to linger
through around 15Z before lifting into MVFR then scattering out
through the afternoon. Wind will generally be SW to W through
the TAF period.

Not really typical fog season, but with valley winds becoming
calm tonight, and mostly clear skies, MVFR to IFR valley fog is
possible tonight. Hit it hardest in the areas the got the most
rain last night -- across the southern CWA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving ceilings may vary. Fog
formation overnight rather uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 02/19/17
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR not expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ



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