Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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634
FXUS64 KSHV 210445
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1045 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions still prevailing to begin the 06z TAF cycle. Local
radar mosaic showing increasing convection along and south of a
LFK...MLU line and this will likely continue as we go through the
overnight hours. Having a difficult time getting ceilings lower
than 5kft moving up from the south late this evening and the 00z
NAM output confirms this so have delayed the introduction of
MVFR/IFR ceilings a few hours which was a change from the 00z TAF
package. After 12z or so...we should transition into more of a
scattered light rain and/or drizzle scenario with strong
isentropic lift continuing to go along with the low ceilings. By
mid morning through the afternoon hours...we transition into more
scattered convection as the parent shortwave begins to influence
the region from the west. By that time...ceilings should rebound
from LIFR/IFR conditions to MVFR conditions.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1025 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Robust shortwave trough bearing a slightly negative tilt continues
to rapidly eject eastward across southeast TX into southwest LA.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed across this area
with the strongest storms remaining south of our CWA this evening.
However, did increase pops across our southern tier to account for
the expanding convection through the remainder of the overnight
hours. Did forego any mention of severe storms as the best upper
level dynamics and shear profiles will remain just to our south.
Other updates tonight include slight tweaking of temperatures as
some areas across our northwest have already neared or reached
previous forecast lows due to rapid clearing over these areas. So
did lower overnight minimums by a few degrees over much of our
northwest zones. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast looks to
be on track. All updated text products have been issued.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  73  50  64 /  20  40  50  30
MLU  57  74  53  65 /  50  20  60  30
DEQ  44  71  46  60 /   0  30  60  30
TXK  52  72  49  61 /  10  30  60  30
ELD  53  72  50  62 /  20  40  60  30
TYR  53  72  49  63 /  10  40  40  20
GGG  53  72  49  63 /  10  40  40  20
LFK  57  75  51  65 /  30  20  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13



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