Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 252026
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
226 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Near-zonal but progressive upper level flow to send our sfc ridge
packing ewd tonight, allowing for increasing sly flow to return to
the region. Fast-moving shortwave will bring shwrs/tstms back to
the region by Sunday afternoon, and a generally unsettled pattern
will continue even after the shortwave moves e of our region as sw
flow aloft remains in place. Temperatures will continue to inch
upwards daily, likely back up in the 80s again for some portions
of the region by Tuesday.

Upper trof responsible for the lingering sw flow aloft will move
into the plains late Tuesday/early Wednesday, driving a developing
cold front ewd into our region. This will bring widespread tstms
to the Lower MS River Valley with strong upper level forcing to
bring some potential for severe storms as the front moves through
our region.

High pressure to settle in over the srn plains in the wake of the
trof/front, allowing our temps to settle back down near normal
for the latter half of the work week. Rain chances will begin to
creep back into the very end of the fcst pd, as another
disturbance moves cross the region. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 142 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 25/18Z terminal forecast, VFR flight categories will
prevail through the end of the period. Mostly clear skies
across the area with return clouds expected during the early
morning hours on Sunday around and after 26/08Z-26/12Z. These
returning clouds will be high clouds around 20-30 kft with
possibly some middle clouds around 10 kft moving into Southeast
Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas, followed near 26/14Z-26/16Z
with 5 kft clouds into parts of East Texas and Southeast
Oklahoma. After the end of the terminal forecast period of 26/18Z
a lowering of the cloud bases will occur with returning moisture
in the lower levels possibly with MVFR into the afternoon and
evening Sunday. Rain looks to be later during the evening and
overnight Sunday. Surface winds will be Northeast 5-10 knots this
afternoon becoming light and variable and veering to the East and
Southeast by 26/12z as the center of the surface high moves east
of the region. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  68  59  76 /   0  20  70  50
MLU  34  68  56  75 /   0  10  60  50
DEQ  30  60  47  67 /   0  30  60  50
TXK  35  62  53  71 /   0  30  70  50
ELD  32  65  53  71 /   0  10  70  50
TYR  39  65  59  76 /   0  40  70  50
GGG  38  67  59  76 /   0  30  70  50
LFK  39  70  61  79 /   0  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12



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