Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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288
FXUS64 KSHV 281134
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
634 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.AVIATION...
Starting off with VFR conditions early this morning across our
terminal locations. IR imagery showing some 4-6kft moisture in the
vicinity of the TXK terminal but otherwise, just some high cirrus.
To the south and west of our TYR/LFK terminals, VLIFR ceilings
with some dense fog was noted but low level wind fields are from
the southeast and this should stay west of our western most
terminal this morning. Did tempo 3-5SM at the LFK terminal for a
couple hours this morning before cu field develops across the
region in the 14-16z timeframe. Best chance to see afternoon
convection today will be across our southeast most zones which
could possibly effect the MLU terminal in the 21-02z timeframe.
For this reason, kept mention of VCTS going in that time range.
Look for southeast winds today in the 6-12kt range.

Overnight, boundary layer moisture to advect more northward
into the predawn hours Thursday Morning and this should result in
the development of at least MVFR ceilings late. Did introduce IFR
ceilings across our NE TX terminals with more in the way of MVFR
ceilings elsewhere in the last 4 hours or so of the TAF package.
Could also be a reduction in VSBY in a few locations closer to
sunrise Thursday Morning.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trof over the East Coast continues to depart to the e this
morning, and weakness/disturbance over the nrn Gulf continues to
generate convection along the TX/LA coast. Disturbance will
enhance the sea breeze this aftn and again Thursday and Friday
afternoons, allowing for isold/to sct convection to make it into
our srn areas today and further n for Thursday/Friday.

Deepening trof over the Central Plains late Friday into Saturday,
dragging a cold front into our region by early Saturday. Sct to
numerous shwrs/tstms will be possible as the front sinks swd and
stalls by Saturday aftn. Front fcst to remain quasi-stationary
through the weekend before moving back nwd in the wake of the
upper trof.

Upper ridge to being nosing into TX early next work week, likely
sending our temps into the low or even mid 90s for the first half
of the work week.

/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  88  76 /  10  10  30  20
MLU  90  72  86  74 /  20  10  40  20
DEQ  91  70  89  74 /  10  10  20  20
TXK  90  72  88  75 /  10  10  20  20
ELD  91  71  86  73 /  10  10  30  20
TYR  90  73  89  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG  90  72  89  75 /  10  10  30  20
LFK  90  73  90  76 /  20  10  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/13



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