Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 201746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BUT MOST
OF THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING
PRECIP AT ANY TAF SITES BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHWRS
MAINLY N OF I-30 SUNDAY MORNING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING OF FOG.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SW FLANK OF THE SFC RIDGING FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH THE PARENT RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY E
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER
OF THE WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD/INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...AS
READINGS TOP OUT NEAR 90/INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ESE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY IN ITS WAKE AS IT ENTERS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY...WHICH WILL HELP REINFORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT S INTO NRN OK/AR
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MIX S INTO SE OK/CNTRL AR BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD RESULT IN
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/SRN AR/NRN
LA...RESULTING IN EVEN HOTTER TEMPS THAN WHAT SHOULD BE SEEN TODAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED NEAR
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY OVER SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE S
INTO PORTIONS OF NE TX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...WITH THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
BUILDING S SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TO NEAR/JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
E TX/N LA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO COOL WITH THE FROPA GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...BUT COOLER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BACKDOOR SW INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS S FROM THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA
BY AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING S INTO THE REGION. THE
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS SHOULD BE REALIZED AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. FLAT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD EXPAND E FOLLOWING THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE/S DEPARTURE LATE MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT BY MID/LATE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES...WITH THE TROUGH POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN VC OF NE. RH/S SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MODIFY OVER OUR REGION BY LATE
WEEK AS WELL...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. THE GFS DOES TRY TO LIFT A WEAK SHORTWAVE NE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE BROAD
STATIONARY TROUGHING FARTHER W. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/SRN AND ERN SECTIONS
OF NCNTRL LA. HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE AREAS WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
MLU  92  68  93  66  87 /   0   0  10  20  10
DEQ  89  67  90  63  83 /  10  10  20  20   0
TXK  89  68  91  65  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
ELD  91  67  92  64  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
TYR  91  70  92  69  88 /   0   0  10  20  10
GGG  91  68  92  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
LFK  92  68  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




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