Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 030405
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS SHIELD AND AREAS OF FG/-DZ WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT VSBYS WILL LOWER
FURTHER...RESULTING IN DENSE FG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR
BEGINS TO SPREAD N ATOP A COLD GROUND SURFACE ONCE BNDRY LYR WINDS
VEER MORE SRLY. IN FACT...ALREADY SEEING VSBYS CRATERING ACROSS SE
TX/SRN LA AS OF 03Z...WHICH SHOULD EXPAND NWD OVERNIGHT.
THUS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OK AND OUR NRN SW AR COUNTIES THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY. THE FG
MAY BE STUBBORN TO LIFT UNTIL THE MIDDAY HOUR THOUGH...UNTIL THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT ALLOWING FOR THE FG/LOW STRATUS
TO GRADUALLY LIFT. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES AFTER 06Z MAINLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR...GENERALLY N
OF THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD
LATE. THUS...HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z FOR THESE
AREAS...WHILE LOWERING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

CONCERNING TEMPS...BELIEVE THAT THE 03-04Z TEMPS WILL BE OUR MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE SEVERAL
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT N.
THUS...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN AND HOURLY TEMPS TO
REFLECT A RISING TREND LATE.

WILL ALSO ADDRESS THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY IN
A SPS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. BASED ON THE 18Z MODELS RUNS...AND
AFTER A QUICK GLANCE AT THE 00Z WRF...BELIEVE THAT AREAS OF
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR AND N LA ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL BE
MOST AT RISK FOR A MIXTURE OF FZRA/IP...AND POSSIBLY -SN OVER SW
AR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS PENDING ADDITIONAL 00Z MODEL ANALYSIS.

ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH M0STLY
STEADY OR POSSIBLY LOWERING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY MVFR
BETWEEN 03/15-20Z AS SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 5 KTS OR
GREATER. SOME TEMPO SCATTERING OF THESE LOW CIGS EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTN TUESDAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  71  60  63  31 /  20  40  50  80  70
MLU  40  70  62  65  31 /  20  40  40  80  80
DEQ  38  64  45  46  22 /  30  60  60  80  50
TXK  36  68  52  53  26 /  30  60  60  80  60
ELD  37  67  60  63  29 /  20  40  60  80  70
TYR  44  69  56  59  28 /  30  60  50  80  50
GGG  43  73  59  62  30 /  20  50  50  80  70
LFK  49  75  62  64  35 /  20  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ070>073.

LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

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