Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 222342
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
642 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Aftn cumulus has mostly diminished with VFR SKC across the region.
Although a weak frontal boundary has washed out across northern
portions of the region, extensive areas of high mvfr and low vfr
cigs across OK and northern AR may advect into KTXK and possibly
KELD late tonight. A few low clouds may also advect north in
southerly flow later tonight, mainly across ne TX. Some patchy fog
also possible, especially at KLFK where fog also settled in last
night. A steep east to west pressure gradient on Thursday, invok
approaching storm system entering the region Friday, resulting in
south winds at least 15 to 20 kts over ne TX by late Thu aftn,
while at KELD and KMLU, southerly winds may struggle to reach 10
kts. Mostly VFR SKC after about 23/16z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The back door cool front has run out of gas and is washing out.
Southerly winds will be returning for most along with more clouds
and some daybreak fog south of I-20 seems to be a good bet. The
day tomorrow will be more like the start of the week, warm with
winds picking up into Friday, but more clouds and some rain
preceding the evening line.

The system on approach still has a large Slight risk on SPC`s day
three area and timing is more or less the same, but model QPF is
narrower with movement and WPC totals are still in the inch to
slightly more in a few places. We will have another couple of
good models runs before our morning briefing on this event and
the change in pattern for next week as the huge East coast trough
has pushed out to sea off the mid Atlantic coast today.

Cooler and wetter weather will ensue with a two to three system
pattern compared to the one every week we have been dealing with
this late Winter and early Spring. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  58  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  78  56  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  70  50  81  60 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  72  55  83  62 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  73  53  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  79  60  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  81  59  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  83  61  86  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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