Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 311210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PD. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
RAIN SETS IN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME SELY AT 6-12 KTS AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC ESTABLISHING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF
INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MONDAYS WEATHER STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS AND
THURSDAY FRONTS...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /  10  50 100  40   0
DEQ  54  46  57  25  44 /  20  90  90  10   0
TXK  54  49  58  28  43 /  20  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  30  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  20  90 100  10   0
LFK  63  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




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