Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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460
FXUS64 KSHV 240058
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
758 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 24/00Z terminal forecast period will be prevailing VFR
flight categories for all the forecast sites. A band of high
clouds will be over the area this evening extending West to East
along and near Interstate 20 which will be shifting South during
the evening. Another band of middle clouds around 10 kft and high
clouds near 25 kft will be spreading into the region around or
after midnight and lingering into the early morning after
daybreak. Our next cold front will be moving through overnight
with high pressure bridging into the region returning the West and
Northwest winds now in place of generally 5-12 knots, to an increasing
or tightening pressure gradient, producing strong and gusty
Northwest winds of 15-25 knots with higher gusts of 30-35 knots
after 24/14Z through the late afternoon on Tuesday. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Reinforcing cold push has made it into central OK this aftn and
will continue to infiltrate our region in NW flow aloft tonight
and Tuesday. Gusty winds will usher this additional cold/dry
airmass in, and a Lake Wind Advisory seems to be in order for the
entire region for Tuesday aftn. Thus, have issued it to be in
effect from noon through 7 pm Tuesday.

Amplified upper trof will continue to pivot ewd, leaving us under
NW flow aloft through Wednesday. Another trof will dive sewd down
the plains Thursday/Thursday night, bringing yet another cold
front through our region. Models in stark disagreement with regard
to moisture return ahead of this cold front. The GFS/Canadian
solutions indicate only meager moisture return, and as a
consequence, bring the front through our region dry. The Euro,
however, develops a deeper sfc trof over TX, which appears allow
for enough moisture to be in place to get some shwrs/tstms along
and behind the front during Friday. Have kept PoPs on the
conservative side for this event for now. This front is fcst to
bring in the coldest airmass of the season thus far, and blended
guidance continues to indicate max temps in the 50s for
Friday/Saturday. In addition, it is quite possible that some of
our nrn areas may see the first freeze of the season Friday night.

High pressure at the sfc and dry NW flow aloft will see us
through the remainder of the fcst pd. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  71  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  72  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  45  68  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  48  69  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  48  69  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  49  71  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  49  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  72  42  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/12



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