Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 100424
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1124 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT FOR OUR SW AR AND N LA TERMINALS
MAINLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

SEVERAL FACTORS IN PLAY...ONE OF WHICH INCLUDES A SFC BOUNDARY AND
AN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN TX BUT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN LA CLOSER TO THE
SHV/MLU TERMINALS. ALSO IN PLAY IS A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVERNIGHT IN THE 925MB LAYER.
THE STRENGTH OF THIS JET WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT WE SEE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX/SW AR INTO NW LA.

ATTM...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW AR AND NEAR THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NE TX INTO SE OK. THIS IS ALONG THE
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WHICH IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IMPULSE ACROSS EASTERN AR INTO W TN AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT.

ALL THIS TO SAY...ADDED VCTS TO THE TXK/ELD/SHV/MLU TERMINALS ONLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THIS IS A HIGHLY DEPENDENT FORECAST ON
THE ABOVE PARAMETERS ALL COMING TOGETHER.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ISOLATED CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION BEYOND SAY AROUND 14Z ON THU.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND LOSE ORGANIZATION WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHWRS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONT. LATEST HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION SO FAR TONIGHT...REDEVELOPS
PRECIP ACROSS NE TX AND EVENTUALLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 IN E TX/NRN
LA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL LIFT NEAR A
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK OVER E AR/W TN ALSO SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINING NEW CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE WEAK LOW LVL
WIND FIELDS BUT A STRONGER LOW LVL JET TONIGHT COULD ALSO DEVELOP.
PROVIDED THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...SLOW EWD STORM MOTIONS AND
TRAINING OF CELLS WOULD BE LIKELY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH NESDIS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POP/QPF
GRIDS ACROSS NRN LA/FAR E TX INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFTER
10/06Z. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  93  74  95 /  30  30  20  20  10
MLU  85  73  90  72  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DEQ  79  72  91  72  96 /  50  20  30  20  10
TXK  87  72  92  74  95 /  50  20  30  20  10
ELD  92  72  90  72  94 /  50  20  30  20  10
TYR  96  74  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  95  73  96 /  20  30  10  10  10
LFK  99  74  94  73  95 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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