Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231125
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR...WITH KMLC MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY A STORM THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW LOW LEVEL AND UPPER
JETS TEAMING TO PRODUCE LINE OF CONVECTION NORTHWEST
OK TO SOUTH CENTRAL / SOUTHEAST OK. HOW MUCH OF THAT
TRANSLATES INTO EASTERN OK..NORTHWEST AR IS FORECAST
QUESTION OF THE DAY. NEITHER HR3 NOR LOCAL MODEL HAS
GRASP ON CURRENT ACTION.  WILL PUNT ON THIS ONE WITH
CHANCE POPS AND LET DAY SHIFT AMEND AS NEEDED.

UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH TO
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND  PROVIDES LITTLE
SHELTER FROM CHANCE PRECIPITATION.  PWA VALUES  1.25
TO 1.50...MINOR WAVES..CERTAIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
DEFIES MUCH FORECAST DEFINITION THIS CYCLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK PACIFIC NORTHWEST ENERGY DROPS INTO
DESSERT SOUTHWEST..PUMPING UP MOIST GULF RIDGE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD GET INTERESTING AS THAT
ALL TRANSLATES EAST.                             GW


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05
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