Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 250031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Jul 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 25-Jul 27 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 25-Jul 27 2016

            Jul 25     Jul 26     Jul 27
00-03UT        4          2          4
03-06UT        3          2          3
06-09UT        3          1          3
09-12UT        2          1          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          4          2
18-21UT        2          4          2
21-00UT        2          4          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 25-Jul 27 2016

              Jul 25  Jul 26  Jul 27
S1 or greater   10%      1%      1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms for day one (25 Jul) due to the flare potential and
favorable location of region 2567.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 24 2016 0620 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 25-Jul 27 2016

              Jul 25        Jul 26        Jul 27
R1-R2           40%           10%            1%
R3 or greater   10%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
 and a slight chance for R3 or greater radio blackouts on day one (25
Jul). There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on day two (26 Jul). All of the radio blackout potential is
due to the flare probability from Region 2567.


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