Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 191231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Jan 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 19-Jan 21 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 19-Jan 21 2017

            Jan 19     Jan 20     Jan 21
00-03UT        4          4          4
03-06UT        3          4          4
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        3          2          3
12-15UT        3          3          2
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        3          3          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1-Minor storming is likely on day one
(19 Jan), due to continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2017

              Jan 19  Jan 20  Jan 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2017

              Jan 19        Jan 20        Jan 21
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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