Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 271231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Mar 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 27-Mar 29 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 27-Mar 29 2015

            Mar 27     Mar 28     Mar 29
00-03UT        3          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          4          4
06-09UT        2          4          4
09-12UT        2          4          4
12-15UT        3          4          4
15-18UT        3          4          4
18-21UT        3          4          4
21-00UT        3          4          4

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on days two and
three (28-29 Mar) due to recurrent southern polar coronal hole high
speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 27-Mar 29 2015

              Mar 27  Mar 28  Mar 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 27-Mar 29 2015

              Mar 27        Mar 28        Mar 29
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts exists due to flare
potential from Region 2305.


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