Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Dec 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 05-Dec 07 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 05-Dec 07 2016

            Dec 05     Dec 06     Dec 07
00-03UT        3          2          2
03-06UT        3          1          2
06-09UT        2          1          1
09-12UT        2          1          1
12-15UT        2          1          3
15-18UT        1          1          3
18-21UT        1          2          4
21-00UT        2          2          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active periods are expected on day three (07 Dec) due to
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2016

              Dec 05  Dec 06  Dec 07
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2016

              Dec 05        Dec 06        Dec 07
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-Minor) for
the next three days (05-07 Dec).



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