Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 280033
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Mar 28 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2017

            Mar 28     Mar 29     Mar 30
00-03UT        6 (G2)     6 (G2)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4
06-09UT        5 (G1)     4          4
09-12UT        4          4          3
12-15UT        4          3          3
15-18UT        4          4          3
18-21UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) levels are expected on days one and two (28-29
Mar) due to CH HSS activity. The solar wind environment is likely to
remain enhanced into day three (30 Mar) due to continued CH HSS
influences; G1 (Minor) levels are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2017

              Mar 28  Mar 29  Mar 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2017

              Mar 28        Mar 29        Mar 30
R1-R2           15%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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