Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 100031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Jul 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 10-Jul 12 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 10-Jul 12 2014

            Jul 10     Jul 11     Jul 12
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        2          2          2
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2014

              Jul 10  Jul 11  Jul 12
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: A slight chance exists for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm for the forecast period as Regions 2108 and 2109 transit
into a better connected location.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 09 2014 0026 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2014

              Jul 10        Jul 11        Jul 12
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over the
next three days (08 - 10 Jul) with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or
greater radio blackout.  Regions 2108, 2109, and 2113 are considered to
be the most important regions to watch at this time.



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