Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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AXUS74 KLZK 302143
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-011200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
335 PM CST THU NOV 30 2017

...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET SUMMER IN ARKANSAS...THE RAIN SHUT OFF DURING THE
FALL. MORE THAN A DOZEN SITES IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE HAD THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE SITUATION HAS
NOT IMPROVED IN THE WEEKS TO FOLLOW.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF
DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4
/EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID NOVEMBER 28TH 2017...
INDICATED WIDESPREAD D1 /85 PERCENT COVERAGE/ AND D2 /61 PERCENT
COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS IN MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS.
THERE WERE SOME D3 /15 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF
THE WEST.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

A WEAK LA NINA /COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ BEGAN DEVELOPING IN THE FALL. THIS OFTEN RESULTS
IN MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND
THAT IS WHAT HAS TAKEN PLACE LOCALLY.

IN NOVEMBER...RAINFALL WAS WELL BELOW AVERAGE STATEWIDE. IT WAS
ESPECIALLY DRY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH AMOUNTS
LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT FORT SMITH /SEBASTIAN COUNTY/...
HARRISON /BOONE COUNTY/...JONESBORO /CRAIGHEAD COUNTY/...LITTLE ROCK
/PULASKI COUNTY/...AND PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/.

PRECIPITATION IN NOVEMBER 2017...

SITE                     AMOUNT    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/      1.11      4.23      -3.12         26
HARRISON /NC AR/          0.79      4.23      -3.44         19
JONESBORO /NE AR/         1.00      4.90      -3.90         20
FORT SMITH /WC AR/        0.28      4.44      -4.16          6
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/        0.42      5.28      -4.86          8
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/      1.48      4.95      -3.47         30
TEXARKANA /SW AR/         1.53      4.82      -3.29         32
EL DORADO /SC AR/         1.47      4.89      -3.42         30
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/        0.25      4.83      -4.58          5

FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH NOVEMBER 30TH /91 DAYS/...SIX TO
TWELVE INCH RAINFALL DEFICITS WERE COMMON. PRECIPITATION WAS LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN PLACES SUCH AS JONESBORO /CRAIGHEAD
COUNTY/...LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/...AND PINE BLUFF
/JEFFERSON COUNTY/. AT THESE SITES...UNDER THREE INCHES OF LIQUID
WAS MEASURED.

PRECIPITATION FROM SEPTEMBER 1 - NOVEMBER 30 2017...

SITE                     AMOUNT    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/      6.47     13.38      -6.91         48
HARRISON /NC AR/          3.83     11.98      -8.15         32
JONESBORO /NE AR/         2.43     12.22      -9.79         20
FORT SMITH /WC AR/        3.57     12.81      -9.24         28
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/        2.24     13.37     -11.13         17
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/      5.17     12.00      -6.83         43
TEXARKANA /SW AR/         4.29     13.18      -8.89         33
EL DORADO /SC AR/         3.73     13.19      -9.46         28
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/        2.01     12.52     -10.51         16

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

AS OF NOVEMBER 30TH...THERE WAS A HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER IN ALL
OF ARKANSAS. BURN BANS WERE POSTED IN 61 /OF 75/ COUNTIES.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. VALUES IN MUCH OF THE OZARK AND OUACHITA
MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/ WERE
IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE OR LESS /30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE IS NORMAL/.
VALUES WERE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE IN SPOTS.

STREAMFLOW ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES WAS SUBPAR AT MOST SITES...BUT WAS
ESPECIALLY LOW IN THE SOUTH/WEST. VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 10TH
TO 24TH PERCENTILE...BUT LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE AT MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST /25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE IS
NORMAL/.

FORECAST...

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE A PATTERN CHANGE. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
DECEMBER...AND AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WHILE THIS
WILL BE THE MOST APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SOME TIME...IT WILL TAKE A
LOT MORE RAIN TO ERASE THE DROUGHT.

MOVING FORWARD...A WEAK LA NINA /COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE
EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ IS EXPECTED DURING THE WINTER AND
INTO THE EARLY SPRING. GIVEN THIS...COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY VISIT
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES LESS THAN USUAL...AND STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE LESS THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IF THIS
COMES TO FRUITION...THE DROUGHT IN ARKANSAS WILL WORSEN.

ASSUMING DROUGHT CONDITIONS DECLINE...THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW.
VEGETATION IS GOING DORMANT AND CONSUMING LESS GROUND WATER.
THE PROCESS WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN THE SPRING IF SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE...AND VEGETATION COMES
BACK.

THE OUTLOOK THROUGH FEBRUARY OF 2018 CALLS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST LOCALLY...AND DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/DROUGHT.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
HTTPS://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTPS://WWW.USGS.GOV/

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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