Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-220200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 PM MST MON JUN 21 2014

...DROUGHT MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...

SYNOPSIS...

THE TYPICAL DRY SPRING WEATHER KEPT DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN
TACT...WITH SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DROUGHT OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
RECENT MONSOON RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE HAVE LOCALLY
HELPED...HOWEVER THE OVERALL SCOPE OF DROUGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY. FURTHER RAINFALL DURING THE SUMMER
MONSOON SEASON WILL LOCALLY AID IN REDUCING THE MAGNITUDE OF
DROUGHT. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS UTILIZED IN
REFILLING RESERVOIR LEVELS DURING THE SPRING WILL BE CRUCIAL IN THE
UPCOMING WINTER SEASON. IMPACTS WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER AND
WATER USAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGEST DROUGHT IMPACTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE YEAR.

EXTREME DROUGHT REMAINS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF PINAL AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES. SEVERE DROUGHT COVERS ALL OF EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...LA
PAZ...AND CENTRAL GILA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN YUMA COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND IMPERIAL AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE LONGER TERM EFFECTS OF RAINFALL HAS KEPT
EASTERN YUMA COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY IN THE
MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY. CURRENTLY...AROUND 72% OF THE STATE OF
ARIZONA IS AT SEVERE DROUGHT LEVELS OR WORSE...WHICH IS A NOTABLE
DETERIORATION AS COMPARED TO 3 MONTHS AGO WHEN ONLY 57% OF THE STATE
WAS AT SUCH LEVELS.

NEUTRAL EL NINO/LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE TRANSITIONING TOWARDS AN EL
NINO EPISODE EARLY THIS SUMMER. THERE IS STILL NO PREDICTABLE
INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN FROM AN EL NINO
EVENT. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE EL NINO CONDITIONS FULLY DEVELOPING
BY THE END OF THE SUMMER SEASON...WITH BETTER THAN AN 80% CHANCE OF
EL NINO BY THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON. ONLY MODERATE TO STRONG EL
NINO CYCLES TYPICALLY HAVE A PREDICTABLE WET SIGNAL FOR THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES DURING THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS...WITH
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK EL NINO EPISODES. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THIS EL NINO EVENT
WILL BECOME...HOWEVER MOST SIGNS POINT TO ONLY A WEAK TO MODERATE
EVENT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

WITH OVER THREE YEARS OF DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...IMPACTS
HAVE INCLUDED PERIODIC WATER HAULING NECESSARY FOR FARMERS AND
RANCHERS...AND DISTRESSED VEGETATION AND LOSS OF FORAGE ACREAGE.
LIVESTOCK ON REGIONAL RANCHES HAVE SUFFERED THE GREATEST IMPACTS
FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. RANGE LAND AND PASTURE CONDITIONS WORSENED
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR AFTER A PROMISING START AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WINTER SEASON. MORE THAN HALF OF THE AREA PASTURE
LAND IS RATED AS POOR OR VERY POOR VERSUS JUST 34% AT THE BEGINNING
OF DECEMBER...WHILE TOPSOIL MOISTURE IS REPORTED AS 36% SHORT OR
VERY SHORT.

WITH GENERALLY GOOD MONSOON RAINFALL LAST SUMMER AND SUFFICIENTLY
WET CONDITIONS DURING THE AUTUMN AND LATE WINTER...NATIVE
GRASSES...SMALL PLANTS...AND TREES EXPERIENCED GOOD GROWTH.
HOWEVER...ABNORMALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST 7
MONTHS HAVE CAUSED THESE NATIVE SMALL PLANTS AND GRASSES TO DRY
RAPIDLY. FORTUNATELY...INCREASES IN MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE PAST
MONTH HAVE IMPROVED FUEL CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH BOTH 10-HOUR AND
100-HOUR DEAD FUELS MOISTURE VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 6% (ONLY A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE SPRING).



CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE SEASONAL WATER YEAR (SINCE OCT 1ST) AND CALENDAR YEAR REMAINS
DRIER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE OVERALL
DEFICITS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...THOUGH BENEFICIAL MONSOON RAINFALL HAS HELPED A FEW LOCATIONS
RECENTLY. BELOW IS A LISTING OF STATIONS AND PRECIPITATION RECORDED
SINCE OCTOBER 1 2013 AND JANUARY 1 2014. ALSO INCLUDED ARE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND SEASONAL HISTORICAL
RANKINGS (PLEASE NOTE SOME STATIONS HAVE A MORE LIMITED HISTORY WITH
RANKING NUMBERS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT).


                   SINCE   SINCE    SINCE     PERCENT     RANK
                   OCT 1   JAN 1    OCT 1    OF NORMAL    DRIEST
                   2013    2014     NORMAL
BOUSE AZ           2.51    1.02     4.01        63%       20TH
WICKENBURG AZ      5.86    2.69     8.21        71%       36TH
PHX SKY HARBOR AZ  3.87    1.05     5.92        65%       42ND
SCOTTSDALE AZ      4.12    1.04     7.58        54%       MSG
YUMA AZ            1.41    0.23     2.39        59%       52ND
BLYTHE CA          0.89    0.12     2.75        32%       15TH
TUCSON AZ          5.07    2.02     6.90        73%       37TH
FLAGSTAFF AZ       9.95    6.09    15.16        66%       22ND




PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE APPROXIMATE PROBABILITY VALUES FOR ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR AUGUST AND THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
OF AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER ARE GIVEN BELOW VALID FOR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THESE NUMBERS
ARE DERIVED FROM OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER AND ARE ACCESSIBLE THROUGH THEIR WEBSITE LISTED BELOW. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CORRESPONDS TO THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING
THE ENTIRE THREE MONTH PERIOD...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS
FOR THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE ENTIRE THREE MONTH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE...BELOW...OR
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST...AS WELL AS DURING THE
3-MONTH PERIOD OF AUG-SEP-OCT WITH SOME CHANCE OF WARMER THAN
AVERAGE WEATHER FOCUSED TOWARDS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST AS WELL AS THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF
AUG-SEP-OCT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FALLING IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY.

                               TEMPERATURE         PRECIPITATION
                               PROBABILITY          PROBABILITY
                             ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW     ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW
                                  NORMAL               NORMAL
AUGUST 2014..................   33 / 33 / 33        41 / 33 / 26
AUG-SEP-OCT 2014.............   34 / 33 / 33        43 / 33 / 24


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RESERVOIR LEVELS AT THIS POINT OF THE YEAR HAVE NOW FALLEN BEHIND
THOSE OF THE PAST 2 YEARS DUE TO LACK OF SNOW WATER RUNOFF. IT IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL DURING THE BULK OF
THE MONSOON SEASON WILL HAVE ANY EFFECT ON RESERVOIR LEVELS.
HOWEVER...IF THE ENTIRE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON CAN ACHIEVE ABOVE
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE OVERALL DEMAND FOR WATER MAY BE
LESSENED ALLOWING RESERVOIR LEVELS TO BE MAINTAINED.

               07/20/14     07/20/13     07/20/12
               --------     --------     --------
ROOSEVELT         41           46           54
HORSE MESA        93           95           93
MORMON FLAT       95           97           95
STEWARD MTN       93           93           92
  TOTAL SALT      51           55           61

HORSESHOE         57            0            0
BARTLETT          71           97           43
  TOTAL VERDE     66           60           27

  TOTAL SYSTEM    53           56           57


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED ON OR AROUND
AUGUST 22ND.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NWS FORECAST OFFICE PHOENIX...WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
  AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM VARIOUS
FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE  ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - PHOENIX
PO BOX 52025
PHOENIX AZ 85072
602-275-0073
W-PSR.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$









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