Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service TULSA OK
800 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

...Severe drought conditions return to portions of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...

Synopsis...

Severe drought has returned to portions of southeast and east
central Oklahoma, as well as northwest Arkansas, due to very dry
conditions over the past several weeks.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor /USDM/ valid November 21,
2017, Severe /D2/ Drought conditions cover portions of eastern
Muskogee, far southern Cherokee, far southern Adair, eastern Le
Flore, eastern Pushmataha, far northern Haskell, and all of
Sequoyah and Choctaw counties in eastern Oklahoma, in addition to
far southern Crawford, southern Franklin, far eastern Carroll, and
all of Sebastian counties in northwest Arkansas. Moderate /D1/
Drought surrounds the areas experiencing Severe Drought, including
far southern Pittsburg, southern Latimer, western Pushmataha,
western Le Flore, eastern Muskogee, far eastern Mayes, far
southeastern Ottawa, and most of Delaware, Cherokee, Adair, and
Haskell counties in eastern Oklahoma, as well as northern
Franklin, northern Crawford, most of Carroll, and all of Benton,
Washington, and Madison counties in northwest Arkansas.

Abnormally Dry /D0/ but not experiencing drought conditions exist
over portions of Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Mayes, Delaware,
Ottawa, Cherokee, Muskogee, McIntosh, Pittsburg, Haskell, and
Latimer counties in eastern Oklahoma.

The USDM is a collaborative effort between several government and
academic partners. It is a weekly national product issued on
Thursday morning using data collected through the previous Tuesday
morning, so it does not consider precipitation which has fallen
after the data cut-off time.

There are five levels of intensity depicted on the USDM. The USDM
levels are the following: D0 - Abnormally Dry (not in drought but
showing dryness) D1 - Moderate Drought D2 - Severe Drought D3 -
Extreme Drought D4 - Exceptional Drought.

The local Drought Information Statement is issued by the NWS
office in Tulsa when needed to supplement the national USDM
product. Local statements may be issued bi-weekly during times
when the USDM indicates severe drought conditions or as local
conditions warrant.

Summary of Impacts...

State and Local Actions:
The Oklahoma State Climate Office (Oklahoma Climatological
Survey, OCS) hosts recorded briefings focused on the current
conditions, impacts, and outlooks for drought conditions across
the Southern Plains. Updated drought briefings are available at
www.youtube.com/user/SCIPP01

Soil Moisture Impact:
The OCS daily averaged fractional water index for November 24,
2017, shows values of 0.4 to 1.0 (where 1.0 is saturated and 0.0
is completely dry) at 2 and 4 inches below ground in portions of
southeast OK, with 0.4 to 1.0 values at 10 and 24 inches below
ground across all of eastern Oklahoma.

As of November 24, 2017, the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast
Center (ABRFC) gridded soil moisture indicates that the upper
zone, which responds to short term rainfall, is 10 percent to
30 percent full across the D1-D2 area of southeast Oklahoma and 30
percent to greater than 40 percent full across the D1-D2 area of
east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This represents
moderate to slightly agriculturally dry conditions and
corresponds to 30 to 70 percent of normal in southeast Oklahoma,
with neutral conditions and 70 to 100 percent of normal values in
east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The lower zone was
primarily greater than 40 percent full across all of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas except for portions of far
southeast Oklahoma and southern Delaware, far eastern Mayes, far
northern Cherokee, far northern Adair, and western Benton counties,
where the soil was 20 to 40 percent full, representing slight
hydrologically dry to neutral conditions. These lower zone
anomalies were 30 to 90 percent of normal values primarily in the
D1-D2 area.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calculated soil moisture
anomaly analysis as of November 23, 2017, showed soil moisture
was 20-100 mm (0.79-3.9 inches) below normal across southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

Fire Impacts:
No burn bans are in effect.

Climate Summary...

Over the past 7 days, less than a tenth of an inch of rain has
fallen across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas,
with no precipitation recorded across the rest of eastern Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas.

In the last 30 days, rainfall totals have ranged from a few
hundredths of an inch to near a quarter of an inch to the west of
Highway 69 and from a quarter of an inch to an inch, with isolated
areas up to 2 inches across the rest of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. This corresponds to 5 to 25 percent of normal
for most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

According to OCS, for the last 30 days ending November 24, 2017,
northeast, east central, and southeast Oklahoma rank as the
record driest periods since records began in 1921. Since the
beginning of the Water Year (October 1, 2017), northeast Oklahoma
ranks as the 38th wettest, east central Oklahoma ranks as the
28th driest, and southeast Oklahoma ranks as the 14th driest.

Precipitation/Temperature Outlook...

For the upcoming week, low rain chances will return Tuesday
afternoon and continue into Thursday. Temperatures for the next 7
days will be near to above normal for this time of year.

The CPC 8-14 Day Outlook calls for an increased chance for above
normal temperatures and above normal rainfall across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Beyond this period, the CPC outlook for December 2017 (issued
November 16, 2017) indicates a slightly enhanced chance for above
normal temperatures and below normal rainfall across most of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and equal chances for
above, near, and below normal temperatures and median rainfall
over far northeast Oklahoma and a small part of far northwest
Arkansas.

Hydrologic Summary And Outlook...

According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE), all of the
area reservoirs were within their flood pool as of November 22,
2017.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the 7-day average
streamflow was near normal across most of northeast and east
central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as of November 24, 2017.
Below normal conditions were occurring along the Caney River near
Bartlesville and Ramona, the Neosho River near Langley, Spavinaw
Creek near Sycamore, Baron Fork at Eldon, Lee Creek near Short,
the Kiamichi River near Clayton, Antlers, and Big Cedar, Muddy
Boggy Creek near Unger, the Red River near Arthur City, the White
River near Fayetteville, and the Kings River near Berryville. Much
below normal conditions were occurring along the Flint Creek at
Springtown, Frog Bayou at Rudy, and James Fork near Hackett.

Next Issuance Date...

This product will be updated on December 21, 2017, or sooner if
significant changes in drought conditions occur.

Related Websites...

U.S. Drought Portal
http://www.drought.gov

U.S. Drought Monitor
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

National Weather Service Tulsa
http://weather.gov/tulsa/drought_info
http://weather.gov/tulsa

Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
http://weather.gov/abrfc/DROUGHT

Oklahoma Climatological Survey Drought Tools
http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/climate/category/drought_wildfire

Arkansas Forestry Commission
http://www.forestry.state.ar.us

Oklahoma Forestry Commission
http://www.dorestry.ok.gov

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Tulsa District
http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil

U.S. Geological Survey Realtime Data
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt

Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Acknowledgments...

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a collaborative effort between
several government and academic partners including the NWS, the
National Climatic Data Center, the USDA, state and regional
climatologists, and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA
observation sites, the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, the USACE
and the USGS.

Questions or Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this drought
information statement, please contact,

National Weather Service Tulsa
10159 E. 11th St. Suite 300
Tulsa Oklahoma 74128
Phone:   918-838-7838
Email:   sr-tsa.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$


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