Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1002 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Brazos River Basin in North Texas...

The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the
Brazos River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.
This service is also available on the Internet.

In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example:  The Brazos River near South Bend has a
Flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the South
Bend forecast point will rise above 6.4 feet during the next
90 days.

        Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations
            Valid [ 01/17/2018 - 04/17/2018 ]

Location     FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Big Sandy Creek
 Breckenridge  24.0  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  1.9  3.5  4.9  9.2
Upper Brazos River
 South Bend    21.0  4.2  4.5  4.7  5.3  6.4  7.5  8.6 10.7 13.6
 Palo Pinto    18.0  1.6  1.6  1.6  1.8  1.9  2.8  4.3  4.9  8.3
 Dennis        25.0  1.7  1.7  1.7  1.9  2.4  3.9  4.9  6.6  8.9
 Glen Rose     29.0  5.1  5.1  5.3  5.4  5.9  6.5  7.6  9.3 11.0
 Aquilla       29.0  8.4  8.4  8.4  8.4  8.4  8.4  8.4  8.4  8.6
Paluxy River
 Glen Rose     22.0  2.4  2.6  3.1  3.3  3.5  4.6  5.3  6.4  8.1
Nolan River
 Blum          24.0  1.5  1.5  1.6  1.9  2.0  2.2  3.1  3.6  4.9
Lower Brazos River
 Waco          27.0  2.6  3.1  3.1  3.2  3.3  3.5  3.8  4.0  5.5
 Highbank      35.0  2.4  3.2  3.5  3.8  4.1  4.7  5.5  5.7 11.5
North Bosque River
 Hico          24.0  5.5  5.5  6.3  6.6  6.9  7.3  7.8  8.4 11.0
 Clifton       23.0  1.4  1.6  2.1  2.4  2.8  3.7  4.1  5.2  6.7
 Valley Mills  36.0  4.3  4.5  4.9  5.6  5.9  6.9  7.6  8.7 11.0
Hog Creek
 Crawford      14.0  1.8  2.2  2.6  2.8  2.9  3.0  3.1  3.4  5.7
Middle Bosque River
 McGregor      20.0  3.4  3.5  3.6  3.8  3.9  4.1  4.3  4.7  5.4
Sabana River
 De Leon       19.0  2.5  3.1  4.5  6.0  7.5  9.9 11.5 15.4 18.3
Leon River
 De Leon       12.0  2.1  2.1  2.4  2.5  2.5  3.3  4.0  4.8  7.5
 Hamilton      26.0  5.4  5.4  5.5  6.0  6.3  6.8  8.1  9.0 12.4
 Gatesville    22.0  3.4  3.4  3.9  4.8  5.3  6.1  7.0  8.0 11.0
 Belton        14.0  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  4.2
Cowhouse Creek
 Pidcoke       20.0  2.6  3.3  5.2  5.8  6.7  7.5  8.6 10.1 13.9
Lampasas River
 Kempner       18.0  1.3  2.0  2.7  3.0  3.1  3.7  4.4  5.1  6.9
Little River
 Little River  30.0  1.4  1.4  2.4  2.9  3.4  3.9  4.7  6.4 10.0
 Rockdale      30.0  5.8  7.0  8.5  9.8 12.2 15.3 16.7 19.3 24.5
 Cameron       30.0  2.7  4.0  5.8  7.0  8.7 11.7 13.0 16.1 22.4
Navasota River
 Groesbeck      7.0  2.3  2.7  2.9  3.0  3.2  3.4  3.8  4.8  6.4
 Easterly      19.0  4.9  7.3  8.2  9.1 10.7 12.1 14.5 17.0 21.8

Location        90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%
--------        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
Lk Graham      1074.0 1074.0 1074.0 1074.0 1074.0 1074.2 1074.4
Hubbard Cr Lk  1180.1 1180.1 1180.1 1180.1 1180.2 1180.2 1180.2
Lk Leon        1372.2 1372.2 1372.2 1372.2 1372.2 1372.4 1372.6
                20%    10%
                ---    ---
Lk Graham      1074.8 1075.5
Hubbard Cr Lk  1180.5 1181.0
Lk Leon        1373.3 1373.8

Location         90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
--------         ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---
Lk Palo Pinto   864.7 864.7 864.7 864.8 864.9 865.0 865.8 866.2 867.1
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at:  water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fwd

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

North Sulphur River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

South Sulphur River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Cowleech Fork Sabine River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

South Fork Sabine River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Big Sandy Creek
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

West Fork Trinity River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Clear Fork Trinity River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Elm Fork Trinity River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

East Fork Trinity River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Clear Creek
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Denton Creek
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Sister Grove Creek
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Chambers Creek
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Trinity River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Big Sandy Creek
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Brazos River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Paluxy River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Nolan River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

North Bosque River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Hog Creek
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Middle Bosque River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Brazos River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Leon River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Sabana River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Cowhouse Creek
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Lampasas River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Little River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Navasota River
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Headwater Forecasts
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9

Trinity Reservoirs
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.4 730.4 730.5 730.5 730.6 730.7 731.1 731.6 732.9




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