Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
211 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016

...SPRING FLOOD PROBABILITIES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ABOVE NORMAL IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS        6.0   15.0   16.0 :  18   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM             11.0   13.0   16.0 :  55   31   16   17    5    9
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO          14.0   16.0   17.5 :  32   36   14   24    6   13
GRANITE FALLS      888.5  893.5  896.5 :   6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANKATO             22.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5   11   <5    8   <5   <5
HENDERSON          732.0  736.0  739.5 :  11   19   <5    8   <5   <5
JORDAN              25.0   28.0   34.0 :  33   24    6   13   <5   <5
SAVAGE             702.0  710.0  712.0 :  65   50    9   12   <5    9
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE         7.0    8.0   10.0 :  17   21   <5    6   <5   <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD             6.0    7.0    9.0 :  14   18   <5   10   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER               11.0   15.0   16.0 :  16   22   <5   11   <5    9
DELANO              16.5   17.5   18.5 :   9   14    6   13   <5   11
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD            10.0   12.0   14.0 :  12   17    7   12   <5    8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :   6   20   <5   12   <5   <5
MINNEAPOLIS         16.0   16.5   17.0 :  <5    7   <5    7   <5    6
ST PAUL             14.0   15.0   17.0 :  11   17   10   13    6   11
HASTINGS L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :  28   31   10   14    8   12
RED WING L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :  15   15   10   10   <5    9
RED WING            14.0   15.0   16.0 :  14   14    9    9    6    9
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER          87.0   88.0   89.0 :  14   14    8   11    6    9
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK          11.0   14.0   17.0 :  24   22   12   10   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE         773.0  776.0  778.0 :  22   23    8    7   <5   <5
DURAND              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  47   40   18   12    6    5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         2.8    3.0    3.5    4.4    5.4    7.5   10.6
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               7.7    8.1    9.4   11.1   12.6   13.5   16.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            7.2    8.9   10.9   12.5   14.8   16.5   19.5
GRANITE FALLS       882.4  882.9  883.7  884.2  885.4  887.0  889.7
MANKATO              10.0   11.4   13.5   15.7   18.0   19.8   21.8
HENDERSON           723.6  725.2  726.9  728.9  730.5  732.0  734.1
JORDAN               16.0   18.5   21.3   23.9   25.4   26.9   29.0
SAVAGE              695.6  698.3  701.0  703.8  706.6  709.3  711.5
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          4.2    4.5    5.5    6.0    6.7    7.5    7.8
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              3.0    3.5    4.2    4.7    5.7    6.1    6.8
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 4.9    5.5    6.9    8.1   10.2   11.8   14.0
DELANO                9.6   10.2   11.6   12.8   15.1   16.1   17.8
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              4.0    4.6    5.4    6.6    8.8   10.4   12.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              5.9    6.2    6.7    7.5    8.3    8.9    9.8
MINNEAPOLIS           6.8    7.6    8.5    9.7   11.3   13.3   14.1
ST PAUL               5.1    6.6    7.9   10.0   12.6   15.0   17.6
HASTINGS L/D#2        7.6    9.2   10.8   13.1   15.4   17.0   19.0
RED WING L/D#3      673.5  674.3  676.1  676.9  678.5  681.6  682.6
RED WING              7.4    8.0    9.2   10.3   11.8   14.9   16.5
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           79.4   80.1   82.5   83.8   85.0   87.6   89.9
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            6.1    6.8    7.9    8.5   10.6   14.6   15.1
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          765.1  765.5  767.3  770.0  772.7  775.0  776.5
DURAND                8.9    9.4   10.9   12.9   14.6   16.4   17.1

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.6
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               2.7    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.0    2.8    2.8
GRANITE FALLS       880.6  880.6  880.6  880.6  880.5  880.4  880.4
MANKATO               2.6    2.6    2.4    2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0
HENDERSON           714.0  714.0  713.8  713.4  713.2  712.9  712.9
JORDAN                5.5    5.5    5.2    4.9    4.7    4.5    4.5
SAVAGE              687.5  687.5  687.4  687.4  687.4  687.4  687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              1.4    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.2
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 2.4    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.9
DELANO                6.4    6.3    6.2    6.1    5.9    5.8    5.8
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              2.6    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.2
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              4.7    4.7    4.6    4.4    4.3    4.1    4.0
MINNEAPOLIS           4.8    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.4    4.3    4.3
ST PAUL               3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.1
HASTINGS L/D#2        4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
RED WING L/D#3      667.4  667.3  667.2  667.0  667.0  667.0  667.0
RED WING              2.3    2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           75.3   75.3   75.3   75.2   75.2   75.2   75.2
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            1.1    1.0    0.9    0.8    0.8    0.7    0.7
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          759.1  759.0  759.0  758.9  758.9  758.9  758.9
DURAND                2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.5

WHILE SNOWFALL THIS WINTER HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...EARLY WINTER RAINFALL CAUSED SOIL MOISTURE TO REACH VERY HIGH
LEVELS BEFORE THE WINTER FROST SET IN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE GREATEST DRIVER FOR
POTENTIAL SPRING FLOODING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD BE HEAVY SPRING RAINFALL OVER THE FROZEN AND/OR
SATURATED SOILS.

THE PROBABILITIES IN THE TABLES ABOVE ARE CALCULATED USING
HISTORICAL/NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SHOULD RAINFALL BE HEAVIER OR
EARLIER THAN NORMAL...THE PROBABILITY OF SPRING FLOODING WILL
INCREASE. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
AND OUTLOOKS AS WE HEAD INTO SPRING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FIND US ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (LOWER CASE)

OR AT HTTP://INNOVATION.SRH.NOAA.GOV/NWSWIDGET ON YOUR MOBILE DEVICE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE FEBRUARY.

$$



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