Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1230 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS FLOOD SEASON BEGAN EARLY AND WAS PRETTY EXTENSIVE...
HOWEVER...SINCE JANUARY 1...WE HAVE HAD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IN MOST OF THE AREA.

FOR THIS REGION...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. SHORT TERM
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LOOKS NEAR NORMAL IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MEDIUM
AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THROUGH APRIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS WINTER.  OVERALL...THE RELATIVE
RISK HAS GONE FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 31ST ARE MIXED.  IN VIRGINA AND NORTH PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...THERE ARE A MIX OF NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS....THIS HAS BEEN EVOLVING OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS DUE
TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL IN
SOUTH VIRGINIA AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.   THIS IS TYPICALLY A WET
TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AREA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS ARE AT THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STORM
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ONCE OR TWICE A WEEK. THE LATEST
CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING WETTER THAN THE NORMAL PATTERN.


AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD
OUTLOOK...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL AS YOU APPROACH THE
COASTAL AREA. THIS IS BASED ON CPC CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS AND THE
CURRENT EL NINO ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OTHER FACTORS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY..NORMAL FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

HAMILL



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